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Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Signal De-Escalation with the U.S., Return to Cosmetic Israel Strikes
The self-styled Iraqi "resistance" has hinted at a desire to end the tit-for-tat sequence of strikes with the United States and return to cost-free counter-Israel operations.
Aug 18, 2024
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Countering Iran in East Syria Means Moderating the SDF
Groups supported by Iran and the Assad regime have found some local traction due in part to grievances against the Kurdish-led SDF’s governance strategy in Arab tribal areas.
Aug 16, 2024
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Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
A Year of Suwayda Protests Show That Assad Is No Partner
The regime’s increasing violence against a once-loyal Druze minority is yet another reminder that “normalizing” relations with Assad will never yield the stability neighboring states crave.
Aug 16, 2024
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Erik Yavorsky
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A New Era for Turkish-Syrian Ties?
The path towards reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus faces numerous obstacles, linked to a history of mistrust and significant gaps in major contentious issues.
Aug 16, 2024
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Omar al-Radad
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
An Iron Curtain in the Sahel
Russia is taking advantage of recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to embed itself in the Sahel. However, its indiscriminate counterterrorism tactics come with a cost for their forces and the regimes it protects.
Aug 15, 2024
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Kyle Robertson
Articles & Testimony
There Is Still Time to Stop a Wider War in the Middle East
Because the landscape has shifted since April, the Biden administration’s previous script for preventing irreversible escalation may no longer work.
Aug 15, 2024
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Dana Stroul
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Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Video
Brief Analysis
On the Brink? The Potential for a Broader Conflict in the Middle East
An Israeli general and two former U.S. officials discuss the prospects of an imminent Iranian attack and what can be done to deter it.
Aug 14, 2024
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Amir Eshel
David M. Satterfield
Dana Stroul
Brief Analysis
Explosive Remnants: Gaza’s Literal Ticking Bomb
Reconstruction can’t happen until thousands of dud bombs and other explosives are cleared from the urban rubble—a task that faces formidable shortfalls in funding, manpower, and other resources.
Aug 12, 2024
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Andrew G. Clemmensen
Brief Analysis
Israel-Turkey Relations Nearing a Rupture
Even with U.S. intercession, the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran could harden Ankara’s stance against Israel and spur a fatal cycle of diplomatic and economic retaliation.
Aug 9, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Only a Credible Offensive Threat Can Deter Iran from Climbing the Escalation Ladder
Amid a flurry of U.S. military deployments and allied diplomacy, it is uncertain if an embarrassed Tehran will attack Israel, but one thing is clear: allowing it to do so again without meaningful consequences would set a dangerous precedent.
Aug 9, 2024
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Farzin Nadimi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Clashes in Northern Syria: The Triumph of Interests Over the Language of "Brotherhood"?
With no prospects for a political solution to the Syrian crisis, the Turkish government's insistence on maintaining its previous policies in northern Syria and its usurpation of the Syrian people's decision-making warns of dire consequences for an already fragile relationship.
Aug 9, 2024
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Salahuddin Hawa
Video
Brief Analysis
Mapping Iranian External Operations Worldwide
Three counterterrorism experts and former officials discuss a powerful new interactive tool and its implications for mobilizing international pressure on Iran and its proxies.
Aug 9, 2024
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Matthew Levitt
Magnus Ranstorp
Norman Roule
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia Increases Its Cooperation with World’s Nuclear Watchdog
The small but significant step could facilitate U.S. technology transfers to the kingdom, said to be a key element in any potential Israeli-Saudi normalization deal—but proliferation concerns persist.
Aug 8, 2024
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Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Extent of Terrorist and Militia Fuel Oil Diversion Exposed in Iraq
A mechanism for diverting Iraqi government oil to militias through non-operational factories was recently exposed, creating a panic shutdown of asphalt plants run by Iran-backed terrorists.
Aug 7, 2024
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Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s Middle East Moonshot
Reaching a Gaza ceasefire and Israeli-Saudi normalization deal will require intense, well-coordinated diplomatic efforts in a condensed timeline, but the administration can do it with help from the “Arab Quint.”
Aug 7, 2024
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah’s Deadly Rockets Aren’t the Most Serious Threat to Israel’s Northern Border
The 30,000-strong militia has ground forces massed along the frontier, preventing evacuated Israelis from returning home and increasing the risk of a war that both sides would rather postpone for now.
Aug 6, 2024
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah Shadow Governance in Lebanon
In this chapter from the Jihadist Governance and Statecraft compilation, Mattew Levitt examines how Hezbollah exercises authority from outside the halls of formal state power.
Aug 6, 2024
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Matthew Levitt
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Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
Articles & Testimony
Retreating from Legitimacy: Hamas's Engagement In and Disengagement From Governance
In this chapter from the Jihadist Governance and Statecraft compilation, Devorah Margolin explores how Hamas has balanced the contradictions between the demands of governance and of continued terrorist operations.
Aug 6, 2024
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Devorah Margolin
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Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
Articles & Testimony
Looking for Legitimacy: The Taliban’s Diplomacy Campaign
In this chapter from the Jihadist Governance and Statecraft compilation, Aaron Y. Zelin explores how Afghanistan's one-time insurgents are making greater use of key instruments of state.
Aug 6, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
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Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Iranian External Operations Interactive Map and Timeline
Access this powerful tool, which maps over forty-five years of Iranian clandestine operations around the globe.
Aug 6, 2024
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Matthew Levitt
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