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Brief Analysis
Washington Confuses Tactics with Strategy: The Perils of Shuttering the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad
In threatening the closure, the U.S. administration is undermining the reform-minded Iraqi prime minister’s efforts against Iran-backed militias and risking Baghdad’s relationship with Washington.
Oct 9, 2020
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Dana Stroul
Bilal Wahab
Barbara A. Leaf
Video
Brief Analysis
An October Surprise with Iran? Calculations and Policy Implications
Three experts on Iranian politics and strategy assess the possibilities of last-minute dramatic developments between the two adversaries before the U.S. election.
Oct 8, 2020
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Mehdi Khalaji
Ariane Tabatabai
Michael Eisenstadt
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Protests and Regime Suppression in Post-Revolutionary Iran
Since its formation in 1979, the Islamic Republic has seen multiple cycles of unrest, from ethnic movements in the early 1980s to urban riots in the early 1990s, student protests spanning 1999-2003, the Green Movement response to the 2009 election, and the December 2017-January 2018 upheaval in smaller cities and
Oct 8, 2020
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Saeid Golkar
Video
Brief Analysis
Arabs Taking Risks for Peace: Stories from the Frontlines of People-to-People Contact with Israelis
Courageous Arab civic actors discuss the enormous hurdles they have faced in engaging with Israelis and supporting broader social and legislative normalization.
Oct 8, 2020
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Ismail Sayyid Ahmad
Sukina Meshekhis
Ahdeya Ahmed Al-Sayed
Mohamed Al-Hammadi
Joseph Braude
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah’s Secrets Explode—and Are Covered Up—Again
Hezbollah leaders are still trying to conceal their strategy of hiding military assets in civilian areas, but each self-explosion and Israeli exposure reveals more about the group's political plight, its persistent quest for precision missiles, and its skill with information operations.
Oct 8, 2020
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Assaf Orion
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Baku Balance: How Azerbaijan Juggles Israel and Iran
The current conflict in the Caucasus between Azerbaijan and Armenia is an extraordinary case where Israel and Iran, while both claiming neutrality, are actually tilting toward the same side: Azerbaijan. Israel buys Azerbaijan's oil and sells it advanced weapons, now being used to deadly effect; while Iran proclaims its support
Oct 7, 2020
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David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Caucasus Clash Could Endanger Israeli Oil Imports
Israel’s normalization agreement with the United Arab Emirates may enable Gulf oil to make up for any break in Azerbaijani supplies, though this option could harm its ties with Baku and Turkey.
Oct 6, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Flare-Up in Nagorno-Karabakh: The Iranian Dimension
New hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan are forcing Tehran to balance domestic demographic concerns and its desire to expand military ties with Yerevan.
Oct 6, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Missing Economic Strategy in al-Kadhimi’s Government
Iraq’s current government lacks a robust policy of economic diplomacy needed to improve its international economic relations and therefore its domestic economic conditions. Iraq must strike balanced relationships with regional neighbors and global powers to unlock the potential of its workforce and reduce its regional dependencies. In the midst of
Oct 5, 2020
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Sadek Ali Hassan
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraqis and the Closure of the American Embassy: A Race Against Time
Whether or not the decision is made to actually close the embassy, what is certain is that the American administration with its warning that it may do so has sent a strong message to the Iraqi government and the forces of the political process in Iraq. It alerts Iraqis that
Oct 5, 2020
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Munqith Dagher
Brief Analysis
Kuwait’s Precarious Mediation Role May Be Imperiled by the Emir’s Passing
The country’s six decades as regional intermediary have been undercut in recent years by younger Gulf leaders less inclined to traditional methods of conflict resolution, and Sheikh Sabah’s death may put this role at further risk.
Oct 5, 2020
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Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
Emir’s Death Leaves Kuwait Vulnerable to Gulf Rivals
From family competition and parliamentary rumblings to potential friction with various neighbors, the oil-rich U.S. ally may face a challenging transition.
Sep 29, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
Jordan on Schedule for Elections, But Concerns Persist
New royal decrees amount to business as usual on the kingdom’s political landscape, but heightening tensions over COVID-19, economic contraction, and other factors call for careful attention from Washington.
Sep 29, 2020
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Ghaith al-Omari
Articles & Testimony
Were Iran and the United States Really ‘On the Brink’? Observations on Gray Zone Conflict
Tehran’s entire modus operandi is designed to pressure Washington and its allies but avoid all-out conflict, and distorting this reality so close to a U.S. election will only hinder an effective policy response.
Sep 27, 2020
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
UAE-Israel Peace Is Revealing the Middle East’s Faultlines
Much of the commentary surrounding the deal has focused on what it portends for the Palestinian issue and other Israeli relationships, but it may say just as much about the four rival factions that have crystallized in the region since 2011.
Sep 26, 2020
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Sarah Feuer
Brief Analysis
U.S. Officials to Mediate Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Talks
Negotiating a dividing line would enable Beirut to fully exploit potential offshore oil and gas reserves.
Sep 25, 2020
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Ehud Yaari
Simon Henderson
Hanin Ghaddar
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
From Khashoggi to Al-Jabri: A Principal Question
Vocal Saudi dissidents have taken up figures like Jamal Khashoggi and Saad al-Jabri as literal and figurative martyrs for their causes, but their depiction ignores both men’s histories working inside the Saudi state. These dissidents expose, therefore, some of the weakness in their messaging, and they may lack the robust
Sep 25, 2020
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Abdullah Alrebh
Brief Analysis
Pushing Back on Iraqi Militias: Weighing U.S. Options
Although halting the escalation of militia attacks on American personnel is crucial, simply evacuating the Baghdad embassy and downscaling the bilateral relationship would allow Iran to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Sep 25, 2020
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What U.S. Diplomacy for the Kurds in Syria?
Kurds in Syria’s northeastern region face an uncertain and threatening future, especially now that most American forces have withdrawn from the country. A sporadically belligerent Russian military presence, coupled with Turkish aggression against U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, has produced an increasingly precarious situation for Kurds in the area. Even Kurdish civilians
Sep 25, 2020
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John Saleh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
On the Non-state (Ladaula) in Iraq
One of the most common terms used among Iraqi elites to criticize the current state is the concept of the non-state, or al-ladaula. Anyone closely observing Iraq’s political affairs cannot avoid reading and hearing this word multiple times a day, given its prominent usage on TV debates, Whatsapp chats, local
Sep 25, 2020
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Sardar Aziz
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