Ideas. Action. Impact. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute: Improving the Quality of U.S. Middle East Policy

Other Pages

Policy Analysis

Articles & Op-Eds

Russia and Saudis in a Knife Fight Over Oil—But We May Be the Victims

Simon Henderson

Also available in العربية

The Hill

March 10, 2020

The duration and effects of the showdown may come down to price fluctuations and budgetary requirements in Moscow and Riyadh, but the U.S. shale industry will likely suffer either way.

A train wreck is about to occur in the oil market, and there will be casualties. Russia and Saudi Arabia, which previously had cooperated in making the world market well-supplied, no longer can agree on how to share the benefits. Today Riyadh announced it will step up output to a record 12.3 million barrels per day in April, the vast majority of which is exported. Russia also is increasing production but its incremental volumes are smaller. It’s a game of bluff: Who can survive longer? And we are the spectators...

Read the full article on the Hill website.