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Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Nuclear Balancing Act
In line with his tendency to keep all options open when discussing nuclear negotiations, his latest speech gave only a yellow light to a potential deal.
Jun 13, 2023
◆
  • Omer Carmi
A sign and mural in Tehran promote the Fatteh missile and threaten Israel with the slogan "400 Seconds to Tel Aviv" - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s Iran Gamble
The administration is essentially trying to kick the can down the road in order to avoid worse scenarios, but this approach may backfire without firmer steps to slow Iran’s nuclear progress in the meantime.
Jun 9, 2023
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  • Eric Brewer
  • Henry Rome
Israeli Minister of Defense Benny Gantz - source: Israeli Ministry of Defense
Video
Brief Analysis
Israel's Challenges at Home and Abroad: A View from the Opposition
Opposition leader and former defense minister Benny Gantz discusses Israel’s domestic political challenges, the triggers for action against Iran’s nuclear program, the prospects of normalization with Saudi Arabia, and more.
Jun 8, 2023
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  • Benny Gantz
  • Robert Satloff
  • David Makovsky
Iranian military leaders Ali Akbar Ahmadian and Qasem Suleimani - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran’s National Security Council Shuffle Signals Business as Usual
The latest change followed the normal timeline for such appointments, and the new council secretary is a demonstrated loyalist who will presumably toe the Supreme Leader’s uncompromising line.
May 24, 2023
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
U.S. and Iranian flags
Video
Brief Analysis
America's Shifting Iran Policy: From George W. Bush to the Present
Watch as an expert panel assesses the full sweep of U.S. policy toward Iran in the twenty-first century across the Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations.
May 18, 2023
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  • Elliott Abrams
  • Dennis Ross
  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Jordanian Gun Arrest Underscores Israel’s Smuggling Problem
The case of a parliamentarian accused of weapons trafficking is grabbing headlines, but it is just one small part of the sharp increase in gun smuggling across Jordan and Israel’s frontiers.
Apr 25, 2023
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Lauren von Thaden
Photo of a Shahed drone in an Iranian military parade near imagery of Supreme Leader Khamenei..
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Military Drone Program: Security Implications and Policy Responses
A former CENTCOM chief joins two arms experts to discuss the capabilities of Iran’s drones, the gaps in current efforts to curb their proliferation, and the pressing need for a regional air defense architecture that can counter them.
Apr 24, 2023
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  • Kenneth McKenzie Jr.
  • Damien Spleeters
  • Valerie Lincy
Iranian and Russian flags on a table
Articles & Testimony
What the Russia-Iran Arms Deals Mean for the Middle East
In the longer term, the increased flow of weapons will likely exacerbate tensions in the region, spur Arab states to enhance their own arsenals, and endanger any U.S. and partner forces that confront Tehran’s proxies.
Apr 19, 2023
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  • Grant Rumley
Iranian military officers, including Major General Bagheri, tour an underground air base - source: Iranian government
Articles & Testimony
Iranian Military Developments and Trends
Iran’s future military activities will likely be marked by greater continuity than change, but Supreme Leader Khamenei’s succession could presage more risk-acceptant behavior and a reconsideration of its nuclear hedging strategy.
Apr 13, 2023
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Iranian and international negotiators participate in nuclear talks in Vienna, 2021.
Articles & Testimony
‘No Deal, No Crisis’ Is No Plan for Iran
The West is in the middle of a steadily escalating nuclear crisis, even if policymakers are reluctant to admit it.
Mar 29, 2023
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  • Henry Rome
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Attempts to Restore Optimism and Normality in Nowruz Speeches
Despite facing unprecedented protests and other deep challenges, the Supreme Leader delivered upbeat New Year’s messages and argued that simply controlling runaway inflation would solve most of Iran’s ills.
Mar 23, 2023
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Protesters wave flags and placards in front of the Knesset to demonstrate their opposition to judicial reforms proposed by the coalition government of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
The National Security Implications of Israel's Judicial Debate
A panel of former senior Israeli officials discusses how the convulsive domestic debate may affect vital issues related to military preparedness, Iranian nuclear advancement, Palestinian terrorism, and more.
Mar 8, 2023
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  • David Makovsky
  • Shimrit Meir
  • Yaakov Amidror
  • Uzi Dayan
  • Zohar Palti
USAF ground crew directs a B-1 Lancer bomber
Articles & Testimony
Iran Needs to Believe America’s Threat
Four steps could help check Tehran’s progress toward a nuclear bomb and avoid the regional risks of a unilateral Israeli attack.
Mar 5, 2023
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  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Is Iran Ready to Build a Nuclear Bomb or Not?
The Biden administration’s mixed messages about the significance of new enrichment revelations will make it more difficult to decide next steps.
Mar 1, 2023
◆
  • Simon Henderson
U.S. flag, nuclear symbol, Iranian flag
In-Depth Reports
Iran’s Nuclear Endgame Warrants a Change in U.S. Strategy
The regime's latest step on uranium enrichment should compel the United States and its partners to snap back sanctions, bolster military deterrence, and plan for potential crisis scenarios.
Feb 28, 2023
◆
  • Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
Iran Enriched Uranium to 84 Percent—But Can It Make a Nuclear Bomb?
The new reported level is well beyond most people’s “red line” and will likely draw much attention at the IAEA's March meeting.
Feb 20, 2023
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Iranian president Raisi is greeted upon his arrival for a state visit to China in February 2023 - source: Government of Iran
Brief Analysis
Raisi Visits China: More Symbolism Than Substance
The Iranian president’s high-profile Beijing trip reaffirmed the relationship’s limits—and will probably reinforce Tehran’s uninterest in nuclear compromise.
Feb 16, 2023
◆
  • Henry Rome
President Biden delivers the 2022 State of the Union address in Washington - source: U.S. government
Brief Analysis
The State of the Union and the Middle East
A compendium of what the past three U.S. presidents have said—and not said—about the region in their annual speeches before Congress.
Feb 8, 2023
◆
  • Eric Feely
US and Israeli military planes participate in the 2023 Juniper Oak joint exercise over Ashdod, Israel - source: IDF
Brief Analysis
The Juniper Oak Military Exercise: Implications for Innovation, Experimentation, and U.S. Policy Toward Iran
Last week’s large, combined exercise was intended to assure friends and deter adversaries, but both goals will ultimately depend on fixing a flawed policy toward Iran.
Feb 1, 2023
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Iranian and Russian flags on a table
Brief Analysis
After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran
Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.
Jan 20, 2023
◆
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • Henry Rome

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.
Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Henry Rome
Henry Rome
Henry Rome was a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.
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