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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Israeli flag, Hezbollah flag, implied Lebanon border
Video
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah-Israel Escalation: Prospects for War
A former Israeli military planner joins three experts to discuss each side’s current calculus and the U.S. policy implications if they opt for war or a truce.
Jul 2, 2024
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • David Schenker
  • Assaf Orion
Qais
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Nujaba and AAH Argue Over Whether Asaib Is Still a Resistance Player
Asaib Ahl al-Haq cannot seem to decide whether it has detached from anti-U.S. militancy or not, causing other militias to tie themselves in rhetorical knots over the group's public credentials.
Jul 1, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
The U.S. Navy aircraft carriers Harry S. Truman and Dwight D. Eisenhower on joint operations in the CENTCOM region - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
Carrier Gap Increases the Red Sea’s Vulnerability to Houthi Attacks
To fill the capabilities gap between carrier groups and prepare for potential Houthi escalation in the next few weeks, the United States and its partners need to implement stopgap measures and, ideally, surge more military assets into the region temporarily.
Jun 28, 2024
◆
  • Elizabeth Dent
SAD image
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Saraya Awliya al-Dam Finds New Mission in Israel Attacks
The brand appears to have been reactivated by its parent organization, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, to claim certain attacks on Israel during the Gaza war.
Jun 27, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
An explosion hits the civilian cargo vessel MV Tutor in the Red Sea - source: Houthi Media Center
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Houthi Ship Attacks Pose a Longer-Term Challenge to Regional Security and Trade Plans
The immediate effects of the Houthi antishipping campaign are measurably serious, but the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other partners also need to prepare for the emboldened group to exert its newfound leverage in other ways beyond the Gaza war.
Jun 26, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
NATO member flags fly at half-staff in solidarity with victims of the November 2015 Paris terror attacks - source: NATO
Brief Analysis
The NATO Summit Is Another Chance to Counter Russia in the “South”
The alliance has already been shifting toward greater engagement with the Middle East and Africa, but various maritime and infrastructure threats require more urgent attention, as does the broader problem of countering Moscow’s narrative.
Jun 25, 2024
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
A protester's shadow falls across the flag of the Republic of Cyprus - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Threatens Cyprus: Capabilities, Intentions, and Potential Consequences
If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.
Jun 21, 2024
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Hamas and Iran Are Trying to Ignite Israel’s Eastern Fronts
Jordan and Israel can take assertive action to alleviate the risk, from additional border security measures to economic steps such as lifting the ban on West Bank workers and establishing a humanitarian corridor in south Syria.
Jun 20, 2024
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
HaH and Soleimani1
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militia Propagandist Promotes Qalibaf for Iranian President
Iraqi media official and Kataib Hezbollah member Hamid al-Husseini underlined his growing importance in the Iran threat network by issuing the endorsement—possibly as a surrogate for the IRGC-Qods Force.
Jun 18, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Houthi claims
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Groups and Yemen's Houthis Claim More Joint Attacks on Israel
The Iraqi "resistance" and their Iran-backed fellow travelers in Yemen have added a new example of jointly branded attacks to their growing list of collaborative claims.
Jun 17, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
A New Era in Iraq’s Relations with the West?
Amid growing pressure to dissolve the coalition and withdraw troops, the United States and its partners should continue pursuing good relations with Baghdad—but this time with a lighter footprint and increased regional cooperation.
Jun 17, 2024
◆
  • Selin Uysal
  • Devorah Margolin
Thumbnail image of Google Map depicting Israeli and Hezbollah strikes across the Israel-Lebanon border since October 7, 2023
Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Mapping Clashes Along the Israel-Lebanon Border
A regularly updated visual tracker of northern border attacks by Hezbollah, the IDF, and Palestinian groups during the Hamas-Israel war.
Jun 4, 2024
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Ana Estrada Hamm
  • Miller Greene
  • Audrey Kost
  • Elizabeth Surman
Raisi ceremony
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Where Iraqis Landed in the Supreme Leader's Seating Plan
A ceremony held by Khamenei's office gave some clues about the pecking order of the Iraqi "resistance," with political players at the forefront and militia fighters and propagandists in the second tier.
Jun 3, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Marshall Islands–flagged bulk carrier Laax (IMO 9512355), which was attacked in the southern Red Sea on May 28, 2024. photo obtained via the X/Twitter account of French forces stationed in the UAE and deployed in the Indian Ocean, https://x.com/FFEAU_ALINDIEN/status/1795837694960189920.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Behind Houthi Attacks on Ships Operated by Greece-Based Companies
Links to Israel-linked companies, especially in light of the Rafah invasion, are again the culprit.
May 31, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Video
Brief Analysis
Pursuing a Stable Peace in Yemen that Preserves U.S. Interests
The U.S. ambassador to Yemen joins an expert conflict practitioner to discuss Washington’s policy options for resolving the civil war.
May 31, 2024
◆
  • Nadwa Al-Dawsari
  • Steven Fagin
KFC Baghdad 2
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah's Raba Allah Undertakes Unclaimed Attacks on U.S. Brands
The vigilante group appears to have targeted American-branded businesses in Baghdad while taking pains not to claim the attacks, which embarrassed the Iraqi government.
May 30, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Abu Fadak, Fayyadh
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The PMF Represents Iraq at the Axis of Resistance Conference in Tehran
Iraqi militias were nowhere to be seen at the Tehran conference, but an IRGC outlet described the PMF as appearing alongside Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other U.S.-designated terrorist groups.
May 24, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
U.S. and Saudi air force officers greet one another during a joint exercise - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
Security Cooperation in a Changed Region: How to Advance the U.S.-GCC Defense Working Groups
From aligning weapons acquisition strategies and improving intelligence sharing to getting the diplomatic framing right, U.S. officials can do more to advance regional air defense and maritime security through this week’s working groups and beyond.
May 21, 2024
◆
  • Dana Stroul
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Nasrallah Ashura speech
Brief Analysis
How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations
The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.
May 16, 2024
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
A Houthi propaganda image published by the group's al-Masirah TV network.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Latest Houthi Maritime Threats
Even increased aggressive activity in the Indian Ocean will be unlikely to seriously disrupt maritime traffic and global trade—but vessels calling on Israeli ports will need to take extra precautions.
May 16, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight

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Supported by the

Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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