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Soviet Policy in the Gulf: A Change for the Worse?

Today's report from the BBC that several hundred Soviet military advisors remain in Iraq, actively servicing that country's sophisticated military hardware and command and control system, is, if true, a worrisome development. It would be the latest in a series of recent events that raise the fear that the USSR's

John Hannah

Assessing Iraq's Al-Husayn Missiles

The launch of more than two dozen Al-Husayn missiles during the opening days of the current war has emphasized the importance of missiles in Iraqi military strategy. Striking military and civilian targets in Israel and Saudi Arabia could pose severe political problems for the United States. Israel could be dragged

The Air Campaign against Iraq: A Preliminary Assessment

At 2:35 a.m. Baghdad time, allied aircraft initiated the first phase of what will probably be a prolonged and intense air campaign against Iraq. Up to 1000 U.S. and 200 allied combat aircraft may have participated in the initial strike. In all, nearly 1700 allied aircraft are in theater, versus

Michael Eisenstadt

A Quick and Decisive War?

At midnight, the January 15 deadline for Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait will expire without the slightest hint that Saddam Hussein intends to leave. President Bush's "gut instinct" and the conventional wisdom of Washington's experts have both been confounded. Confronted by a massive array of force, Saddam Hussein has not decided

Taking Out Baghdad's Missiles

If the U.S.-led coalition goes to war against Iraq, one of its primary objectives will be the elimination of Iraq's surface-to-surface missiles. However, even a skillfully planned and executed air strike is unlikely to destroy all of Iraq's missiles, which threaten civilian population centers throughout the region and large military

Michael Eisenstadt

In-Depth Reports

Restoring the Balance: U.S. Strategy and the Gulf Crisis

Executive SummaryIraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990, dramatically transformed the Middle East and America's relationship with it. While seeking success in today's crisis, the United States must also focus on how to promote the long-term prospects for regional stability. A critical objective should be to help forge a

Air Power and the Gulf Crisis

How important is air power? This question dominates the current debate about U.S. military options against Iraq, and has a significance for the shape of U.S. forces following the current crisis. Though the military significance of U.S. air power is uncertain, the United States should fully exploit this capability if

In-Depth Reports

Israel and the Gulf Crisis: Changing Security Requirements on the Eastern Front

The Gulf crisis has set into motion several fundamental strategic changes along Israel's eastern front that, taken together, could dramatically alter Israel's security requirements in the West Bank. The Israeli government would then find it even more ddifficult to offer far-reaching concessions in negotiations with the Palestinians. Three major changes

Dore Gold

Iraq's Nuclear Program: The Key Questions

President Bush and other senior administration officials have focused attention on the threat posed by a nuclear Iraq to America's interests in the Middle East. It is generally agreed that Iraq can develop a sizeable nuclear military capability within the next decade. But the significance of this program in both

In-Depth Reports

Iraq's Economic and Military Vulnerabilities

"Will sanctions against Iraq work?" is a question too ambiguous to be useful. It leaves unspecified such key issues as what we want sanctions to accomplish and how Iraq would react if sanctions started to pinch. And, then, how much does Saddam Hussein care about what happens to Iraq's economy

Patrick Clawson

In-Depth Reports

The Bush Administration's Strategy toward the Gulf Crisis

On September 14-16, 1990, The Washington Institute held its fifth annual Policy Conference at the Wye Plantation. The following is an edited transcript of one speaker's remarks. Read a summary of the full conference. We are now seeing not just the outlines of a post-war security order, but the outlines

A New Security Structure for the Persian Gulf: What Does the United States Have in Mind?

Secretary of State Baker's idea of developing "a new security structure" for the Middle East has been the subject of much attention. What specifically does the U.S. have in mind? The most honest answer is not much. It appears that, in raising the idea, Secretary Baker was for the most

John Hannah

Meeting in Amman: The Perils of Negotiation

As UN Secretary-General Perez de Cuellar begins diplomatic contacts in Amman with Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz, the Gulf crisis moves, at least temporarily, into a phase of negotiations. But negotiations can be as dangerous as battle -- leading to escalation, defeat, or even disaster. U.S. policy must be flexible

Barry Rubin

In-Depth Reports

'The Sword of the Arabs': Iraq's Strategic Weapons

Since the conclusion of the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq has intensified, expanded, and diversified its effort to enhance its strategic capabilities, including efforts to develop or acquire unconventional weapons, long-range strike systems, and strategic reconnaissance systems. Iraq has traditionally aspired to be a regional power and its new strategic capabilities provide

Michael Eisenstadt

In-Depth Reports

The Future Battlefield and the Arab-Israeli Conflict

The revolution now taking place in the technology of war is one with potentially dramatic implications for the Arab-Israeli military balance. In this important book. two Middle East military experts assess the impact of technological innovation on Israeli and Arab military forces. They concentrate primarily on Israel and Syria, since

In-Depth Reports

Unaffordable Ambitions: Syria's Military Build-Up and Economic Crisis

In the last decade, Syria has forcefully opposed U.S.-supported peace initiatives for Lebanon and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Syria’s inflexibility has persuaded many observers that little can be done to influence its president, Hafez al-Assad. In fact, much can be done once his vulnerabilities are understood. In this Policy Paper, Patrick

Patrick Clawson

In-Depth Reports

Security for Peace: Israel's Minimal Security Requirements in Negotiations with the Palestinians

The Palestinian uprising in the occupied territories has undermined the status quo that Israel has tried to preserve in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In so doing, the uprising has created an opportunity for the parties to resume the peace process and re-examine a number of basic premises. Like the situation after

Zeev Schiff

In-Depth Reports

Toward Israeli-Palestinian Disengagement

Executive Summary Israel's proposal for Palestinian elections stems from a realization that the status quo is not tenable and a fear that the intifada could escalate to a more violent pattern of confrontation. Despite continued controversy over its details, the elections proposal indicates several new elements in Israel's position: recognition

Ehud Yaari

In-Depth Reports

The Genie Unleashed: Iraq's Chemical and Biological Weapons Production

The unrestricted use of chemical weapons during the last stages of the Iran-Iraq war shocked the international community. In a belated response, the world’s industrialized countries, led by the United States, have initiated a campaign to halt the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons. International efforts have concentrated on stopping

In-Depth Reports

Chemical Weapons in the Middle East

Executive Summary The proliferation of chemical and biological weapons in the Middle East is an accomplished fact. It is too late to prevent the spread of either type of weapon. This poses a potential threat to the United States and to its allies in the region. Fortunately, there are operational

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