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Lebanon

Policy Analysis on Lebanon

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Liwa al-Imam al-Hussein base in Syria
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Liwa al-Imam al-Hussein
One of the largest Iraqi-Syrian militias, developed by Iran's IRGC-QF to support regime and proxy objectives in and around Syria.
Nov 7, 2023
◆
  • Abdullah Hayek
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Nasrallah Ashura speech
Brief Analysis
What Did Nasrallah Really Say, and Why?
The Hezbollah leader’s first public remarks on Gaza were cautious in tone and vague on substance, but the group may not stay deterred indefinitely if its political or tactical situation changes.
Nov 3, 2023
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
◆ Tracking International Reactions to the Hamas-Israel War
Protesters hold Syrian and Hezbollah flags
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Reported Pantsir Delivery to Hezbollah
The antiaircraft system poses a manageable risk to Israeli operations along its northern border, but Washington must show Moscow and its associates that any benefits to such escalation are not worth the costs.
Nov 3, 2023
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah’s Escalation Ladder
In his highly anticipated first speech since the Hamas massacre, Secretary-General Nasrallah can be expected to offer plenty of bluster and a possible step up the escalation ladder, but his group has an interest in avoiding all-out war.
Nov 2, 2023
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Gaza War’s Impact on Energy Security in the East Mediterranean
The energy sector is one indicator of the heavy costs the region will pay in the event of a wider conflict, with some effects already measurable in certain countries.
Nov 1, 2023
◆
  • Noam Raydan
Articles & Testimony
Danger on Israel’s Northern Border
A former Lebanese journalist shares her experience growing up in Lebanon, her insights on Hezbollah, and her views on how associated threats might evolve amid the Gaza war.
Oct 27, 2023
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Echoes of 1983 Beirut Bombings in Current Iranian Proxy Escalation
As Israel prepares to dislodge Hamas from Gaza, Iran and its proxies are extending their threats to the United States, recalling the Beirut bombings that Hezbollah carried out forty years ago at Tehran’s behest.
Oct 23, 2023
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
A Marine Corps training jet on board the USS Gerald Ford, CVN-78 - source: Department of Defense
Articles & Testimony
Will Hezbollah Target American Assets Amid Israel’s War on Gaza?
Iranian proxies are deliberately escalating against American forces in the region as a warning against continued support for Israel’s war, but Hezbollah attacks would take the crisis to a different level.
Oct 23, 2023
◆
  • David Schenker
Photo showing flame and smoke rising over Lebanon's border with Israel.
Video
Brief Analysis
Will Hezbollah and Iran Expand War to Israel's North?
A former senior IDF official joins Lebanese and U.S. experts to discuss whether additional fronts are poised to open in the north, and what Washington is doing to avert this risk.
Oct 17, 2023
◆
  • Yair Golan
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • David Schenker
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Will Hezbollah Hold Back or Escalate?
The group’s latest actions indicate that its strategy for the Gaza war has not changed: using limited and deniable border escalation to distract Israel without fully entering the conflict (for now).
Oct 16, 2023
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Deterring Escalation and Expansion of the Gaza War by Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”
The United States must underscore the risks that such action would incur and incentivize Tehran to rein in its proxies and partners.
Oct 13, 2023
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Miscalculations and the Gaza War
The group might be content with its existing political gains from the conflict, but Washington should still try to shift its calculus given the grave risks of a wider war.
Oct 12, 2023
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
An Israeli flag is projected on the Eiffel Tower in Paris in response to the Hamas terror attacks on Israel in October 2023 - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
International Reactions to the Hamas Attack on Israel
At least forty-four nations have condemned Hamas and decried its tactics as terrorism, but regional players such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, and Iraq have pinned responsibility on Israel.
Oct 11, 2023
◆
  • Cleary Waldo
  • Gabriel Epstein
  • Sydney Hilbush
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
◆ Tracking International Reactions to the Hamas-Israel War
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Battle for UNIFIL’s Independence (Part 2): Facts on the Ground
The secretary-general’s latest report documents Hezbollah’s expanding violations—and the growing role that Lebanese government officials and military commanders play in abetting this activity.
Sep 21, 2023
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Assaf Orion
United Nations headquarters building in New York - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Battle for UNIFIL’s Independence (Part 1): Hezbollah at the UN
Renewing the force’s mandate while blocking Hezbollah’s bid to formally hamstring it are welcome developments, but more concerted diplomatic action will be needed to reverse the downward security trend.
Sep 21, 2023
◆
  • Assaf Orion
  • Matthew Levitt
Breaking Hezbollah's Golden Rule Season 2 Cover Image
Audio
Articles & Testimony
Podcast: Breaking Hezbollah's Golden Rule
Season 2
Listen to the new season of a podcast series shining a bright light on the global terrorist and criminal activities that Lebanese Hezbollah would rather keep hidden from view.
Sep 18, 2023
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Is a New Israel-Hezbollah War Looming?
After many years serving as Iran’s mercenaries in regional wars, Hezbollah leaders now feel compelled to resume their aggressive approach to Israel.
Sep 9, 2023
◆
  • David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Arabia and Lebanon: A Love-Hate Relationship
Riyadh won’t lend a helping hand in Lebanon unless Washington takes action on fully implementing the Taif Accord, curbing Captagon smugglers, and reversing Iran and Hezbollah’s takeover of the state.
Sep 12, 2023
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Moviegoers look at posters and showtimes at a theater in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in August 2023, including the global hit "Barbie" - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Barbie in the Middle East
Some countries banned the film while others let it screen amid restrictions and criticism, illustrating the region’s widening—but still comparably narrow—spectrum of views on cultural openness.
Sep 8, 2023
◆
  • Anna Brown
A Beirut money changer handles Lebanese pound and U.S. dollar notes - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Lebanon Hooked on Diesel Imports Amid Financial Crisis
With the country’s power plants in a parlous state, many Lebanese have turned to diesel-driven options, while the government has sought supply help from regional players such as Turkey and Iraq.
Sep 1, 2023
◆
  • Noam Raydan

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Matthew Levitt
Matthew Levitt
Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Senior Fellow and director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute.
Hanin Ghaddar
Hanin Ghaddar
Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute's Rubin Family Arab Politics Program, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.
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