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Iraq

Policy Analysis on Iraq

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Brief Analysis
Jordan:
Extended Crisis, Heightened Threat
The threat to Jordan's stability is the hidden crisis within the current Gulf conflict. King Hussein's regime is likely to survive, but its fall would bring dire consequences to the region. Jordan's role as a buffer amid powerful, quarreling neighbors has made it a keystone of regional stability. But the
Nov 26, 1990
◆
  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Post-Thanksgiving Agenda:
U.S. and Soviet Policy
U.S. Policy President Bush has made important strides in tackling the Gulf crisis during the past two weeks, consolidating his coalition and preparing the groundwork for Security Council approval of the use of force. He has begun to create an offensive option that will support coercive diplomacy or ensure military
Nov 21, 1990
◆
  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Shamir to Saddam:
"Read My Lips"
If it comes to war in the Gulf, Israel may well be dragged in. Saddam Hussein has repeatedly threatened that his first missiles would be aimed at Israel. By involving Israel in this way, Saddam Hussein might hope to unite the Arab coalition behind him. Unlike all other forces confronting
Nov 20, 1990
◆
  • Zeev Schiff
Brief Analysis
Scaring Saddam:
The Message Must Be Consistent
President Bush's decision to double U.S. force deployments in the Persian Gulf was designed to scare Saddam Hussein. Instead, it has frightened the American people and threatened his coercive diplomacy strategy. The President faces a difficult dilemma. He cannot persuade Saddam Hussein of American resolve without a credible threat of
Nov 16, 1990
Brief Analysis
War Goals for the West
With war in the Gulf increasingly probable the time has come to consider war goals with a long-term focus. Realization of such near-term objectives as military victory, decapitation of Iraq's military, restoration of Kuwaiti sovereignty and creation of a new security structure may actually accelerate radical processes in the Middle
Nov 15, 1990
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Endgame Strategy
How to respond to the growing threat of war emanating from the United States presents Saddam Hussein with one of the major decisions of his career. It seems logical, but not inevitable, that he will now try to stall for time by offering to negotiate about a possible Iraqi withdrawal
Nov 13, 1990
◆
  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Gulf War Clock Is Ticking:
U.S. and Soviet Policy
U.S. Policy The United States will either go to war or will have to begin withdrawing ground forces from the Gulf by next spring. This is the most likely conclusion available from an analysis of the U.S. decision to double ground force deployments in the Persian Gulf. President Bush's decision
Nov 9, 1990
◆
  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Turkey:
Supporting United States but not Ready to Fight
Secretary of State James Baker visited Turkey today, the last stop on his regional tour, to thank that country for its "steadfast" support and warn that the United States "cannot rule out the possible use of force." Turkish officials said there had been no talk about Turkey's opening a second
Nov 7, 1990
◆
  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The UN, Israel, and the Gulf Crisis
This week the United States assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council. The first priority on its agenda will be a resolution authorizing force if necessary to reverse Saddam Hussein's aggression. But the Security Council's attention is likely to be diverted by a PLO-led effort to launch a debate
Nov 6, 1990
Brief Analysis
The Allies and the Baker Trip
Secretary of State James Baker's Middle East trip is designed to firm up and define an anti- Iraq coalition held together by U.S. power, Saudi money, and Egyptian management of inter- Arab politics, while Israeli and Turkish power constrain Iraq. Recently, Syria has been the alignment's weak link, but political
Nov 5, 1990
◆
  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Growing Prospects for War
The Bush administration's reported decision to send 100,000 more U.S. troops is a turning point in the Gulf crisis. When they arc in position -- in two to three months -- the United States and its allies will be able, for the first time, not only to defend Saudi Arabia
Nov 1, 1990
Brief Analysis
The Embargo and the Iraqi Military
With the prospect of 100,000 more U.S. troops in the Gulf and a heightened chance of war, some argue that the anti-Iraq embargo will reduce Baghdad's fighting ability. Unfortunately, this is wishful thinking. Any loss is likely to be far smaller than expected. In addition to stopping Iraq from acquiring
Oct 30, 1990
Brief Analysis
How Vulnerable is Iraq's Economy?
A sanction-induced economic crisis cannot be counted on to force Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, much less out of office. Iraq has good prospects of surviving sanctions through the end of 1991 by a combination of tightening consumer's belts and loosening the socialist tourniquet now tied around the Iraqi private
Oct 25, 1990
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Primakov Mission to Baghdad and Washington:
What Happened?
Last week's meeting between President Bush and Yevgeny Primakov, Mikhail Gorbachev's special emissary to Iraq, generated much speculation about a possible Soviet diplomatic initiative to end the Gulf crisis. Those expectations were overblown. While Primakov provided Bush a first-hand account of his discussions in Baghdad with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein
Oct 24, 1990
◆
  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Egypt and the Gulf Crisis:
Holding the Line against Iraq
The assassination of a major Egyptian political figure, reportedly by Iraqi-backed terrorists, raises questions about Egypt's stability as well as its staying power in opposing Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait. One of the main pillars of the anti-Iraq coalition, Egypt is beset by mounting political and economic difficulties. If it
Oct 23, 1990
◆
  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Is There a "Limited Force" Option?
For now, the Bush administration eschews the use of force while preparing for its use. But what will happen if a consensus develops that President Bush's diplomatic and economic approach is ineffective while a full-scale attack on Iraqi forces remains unattractive? As an additional buildup of U.S. forces gets underway
Oct 22, 1990
Brief Analysis
The Threatened Anti-Iraq Coalition
In the Persian Gulf today, as so often in international affairs, keeping one's options open seems an attractive alternative. In the long run, however, this is really an illusory choice since the course of events may be determined by decisions taken by others or unforeseen complications. To govern, as the
Oct 17, 1990
Brief Analysis
Measuring Saddam's Arab Support
The recent violence in Jerusalem has again raised fears that Iraq can utilize the Arab-Israeli conflict to break the coalition opposed to its aggression. An accurate assessment of Saddam Hussein's support among non-Iraqi Arabs is critical to understanding this question, as well as the impact of the Gulf crisis on
Oct 10, 1990
◆
  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Is the United States Vulnerable to Saddam?
As the United States enters the third month of its deployment in the Persian Gulf, there is increasing concern about what Saddam Hussein could do to undermine American will or reverse Iraqi diplomatic isolation. Given the array of forces against it and faith in an ability to outlast the world
Oct 5, 1990
In-Depth Reports
Iraq's Economic and Military Vulnerabilities
"Will sanctions against Iraq work?" is a question too ambiguous to be useful. It leaves unspecified such key issues as what we want sanctions to accomplish and how Iraq would react if sanctions started to pinch. And, then, how much does Saddam Hussein care about what happens to Iraq's economy
Oct 1, 1990
◆
  • Patrick Clawson

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