Iraq

If Iran duplicates its formula from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen by sending long-range missiles to Iraq, then future conflicts with Israel would likely include military action on Iraqi soil.

By highlighting the hypocrisy of recent ‘housecleaning’ campaigns, Washington can show the Iraqi public that Iran’s Shia militia networks offer no genuine solution to rampant corruption.

The handful of new tools in question could expose Iraqi officials to sanctions and criminal liability given Baghdad's energy dependency on Iran.

Nationalist sentiment and Iranian pressure have led some Iraqi legislators to oppose a continued U.S. military presence, but Washington could make things much worse if it overreacts.

There are alternatives to the overt presence of U.S. controllers on the ground, and allies can help maintain the tempo of strikes in various ways.

The Iraqi militia seeks to follow peers like the Sadrist movement and Badr Organization, but it must first back up its rhetoric with moderating actions.

If the Syria withdrawal proves inevitable, officials should push to phase the departure, keep U.S. forces at Tanf, maintain the air campaign, forge a counterterror agreement with Turkey, and take other fallback measures.

Attack data shows that the group is enthusiastically regrouping in a more concentrated area of northern Iraq, and the government is not adapting fast enough to stop it.

Despite losing access to massive oil income, Islamic State operatives keep finding ways to finance their activities, especially low-cost plots by lone wolves and small cells.