Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf

The Risks of a Wider War with Iran and Its Proxies

Beefing up U.S. naval deployments is not enough to boost deterrence—Washington must also respond decisively to proxy attacks on its forces and increase economic pressure on Tehran.

Oct 23, 2023

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David Schenker

Articles & Testimony

America’s Failing Iran Nuclear Policy: Time for a Course Adjustment

Policymakers need to stay focused on halting the regime’s fissile material buildup while undertaking a broader, longer-term effort to shape its assessment of the risks, costs, and utility of nuclear weapons.

Oct 20, 2023

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Michael Eisenstadt

Figure 3 A 5x3 cube of 107mm rockets, Baghdad, October 19, 2023.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Facade Group Linked to Iran Claims Five Attacks on Americans in Iraq and Syria

A new Telegram account claiming anti-U.S. attacks is linked to Iran's Qods Force and other designated terrorist organizations.

Oct 20, 2023

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Amir al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Signs of Iranian Coordination in Iraqi Base Attacks and Messaging

Iran's proxies undertook two drone attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, and the related social media operations suggest that Iran's Qods Force played a coordinating function.

Oct 18, 2023

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Amir al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Deterring Escalation and Expansion of the Gaza War by Iran’s “Axis of Resistance”

The United States must underscore the risks that such action would incur and incentivize Tehran to rein in its proxies and partners.

Oct 13, 2023

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Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Knights

An Israeli flag is projected on the Eiffel Tower in Paris in response to the Hamas terror attacks on Israel in October 2023 - source: Reuters

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

International Reactions to the Hamas Attack on Israel

At least forty-four nations have condemned Hamas and decried its tactics as terrorism, but regional players such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, and Iraq have pinned responsibility on Israel.

Oct 11, 2023

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Cleary Waldo
Gabriel Epstein
Sydney Hilbush
Aaron Y. Zelin

◆ Tracking International Reactions to the Hamas-Israel War

Brief Analysis

Syria and the Hamas Attack: Another Potential Iran-Backed Front?

New Golan attacks and deployments by Iran-sponsored militias and Syrian forces are creating a worrisome distraction as Israel deals with the crisis on its southern front.

Oct 11, 2023

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Andrew J. Tabler

Articles & Testimony

Israel Focused on the Wrong Iranian Threat, With Deadly Results

Although the existential nature of the nuclear threat understandably demanded attention, Hamas and other Iranian proxies have dramatically increased their capabilities in the meantime.

Oct 10, 2023

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David Schenker

Houthi fighters parade with their missile systems in Sanaa in September 2023 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Celebrates Coup Anniversary in Deadly Fashion

Ending the war and facilitating other U.S.-Saudi diplomatic tracks is crucial, but neither goal will be served by turning a blind eye to the Houthis’ latest jumps in militarization.

Sep 28, 2023

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Michael Knights
Farzin Nadimi

American prisoners released by Iran arrive in Doha, Qatar,in September 2023 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

The Iran Hostage Deal: Clarifying the $6 Billion Transfer

The deal gives Tehran access to frozen funds for humanitarian purposes, likely paving the way for resumed nuclear talks this fall as both sides try to lower tensions.

Sep 18, 2023

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Henry Rome

Thumbnail of infographic detailing Iran's oil exports - source: The Washington Institute

Maps & Graphics

Articles & Testimony

Infographic: A Visual Guide to Iran’s Soaring Oil Exports

New data-rich graphics strikingly illustrate the growth in Tehran’s oil revenue and China’s outsize role in fueling this trend.

Sep 15, 2023

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Henry Rome
Noam Raydan

A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Nuclear Diplomacy: Feint and Advance

What Washington considers de-escalation, Tehran sees as an opportunity to consolidate its nuclear gains, avoid accountability, and position itself to cross the nuclear weapons threshold at a time of its choosing.

Sep 14, 2023

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Michael Singh

Wang Yi, director of China's Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Minister of State and national security adviser of Saudi Arabia Musaad bin Mohammed Al Aiban shake hands in Beijing in March 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Gulf De-escalation and Hedging in the Shadow of US Retrenchment

Although any decrease in tensions is welcome, Washington should be concerned that regional rapprochement is being driven by diminished confidence in the United States.

Sep 12, 2023

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David Schenker

Fikra Forum

Iran’s Pressure Campaign on Iranian Kurds Continues

Iran has stepped up pressure on Baghdad and Erbil to disarm and relocate Iranian Kurdish opposition parties in the Kurdistan Region amidst ongoing disputes between Erbil and Baghdad over budget and oil revenues.

Sep 13, 2023

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Wladimir van Wilgenburg

Brief Analysis

The Uncertain State of Deterrence in the Persian Gulf

Despite conducting military drills and maintaining a defiant tone, Iran has avoided further ship seizures, but its demonstrated willingness to take assertive action in this zone of “contested deterrence” remains intact.

Sep 13, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

Saudi Arabia and Lebanon: A Love-Hate Relationship

Riyadh won’t lend a helping hand in Lebanon unless Washington takes action on fully implementing the Taif Accord, curbing Captagon smugglers, and reversing Iran and Hezbollah’s takeover of the state.

Sep 12, 2023

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Hanin Ghaddar

Twitter photo showing an Iranian woman standing on top of a car during a protest against the killing of Mahsa Amini.

Video

Brief Analysis

Woman, Life, Freedom: Iran’s Mass Protest Movement, One Year On

A Conversation with Masih Alinejad

A leading activist discusses the protests and the international response on the anniversary of the movement’s outbreak.

Sep 12, 2023

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Masih Alinejad

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Misunderstood Nuclear Law

Tehran may argue that its 2020 nuclear law constrains its room for maneuver in any future talks, but its compliance with that law has long been spotty, and officials seem more focused on ensuring that any concessions they make are reversible.

Sep 7, 2023

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Henry Rome

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, casts his vote for president

Brief Analysis

The 2024 Election Cycle Starts in Iran

Upcoming votes pose a dilemma for the Supreme Leader: should he aggressively disqualify candidates and further alienate the public, or risk a Majlis dominated by his political rivals?

Aug 18, 2023

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Omer Carmi

Fikra Forum

Tracking Iranian Soft Power Influence in the KRI

The Islamic Republic of Iran over several years has gained a significant foothold in Iraq, spreading its influence and agenda throughout Iraqi daily life.

Aug 11, 2023

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Nawras Jaff

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

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