Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Iran's Aggressions the Focus of 'Emergency' Arab Summit

Despite the challenges that usually accompany these high-level talks, Gulf countries seem keener than ever to counter the threat across the Persian Gulf.

May 21, 2019

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Simon Henderson

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.

Brief Analysis

‘No War, No Negotiation’ Is Iran’s Stance

By holding fast to his defiant approach while stopping just short of war, Khamenei may be hoping to stall until the next U.S. and Iranian election cycles.

May 21, 2019

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Mehdi Khalaji

Brief Analysis

Rumors of War: Responding to Iranian Pushback in the Gulf

Washington should reduce tensions, open lines of communication, and restore deterrence, though managing the contradictions between these objectives will be challenging.

May 17, 2019

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Michael Eisenstadt
Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Saudi Oil in Iran’s Crosshairs

Attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia’s main internal pipeline have accelerated the emerging Gulf crisis and could cause prices to spike worldwide.

May 14, 2019

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

If Iran Deploys Missiles in Iraq: U.S.-Israeli Response Options

If Iran duplicates its formula from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen by sending long-range missiles to Iraq, then future conflicts with Israel would likely include military action on Iraqi soil.

May 13, 2019

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Michael Knights
Assaf Orion

Brief Analysis

Iraq-Turkey Pipeline Arbitration: Avoiding a Policy Train Wreck

Baghdad is suing Ankara for giving the Kurds independent pipeline access, but the biggest loser may be Washington’s pressure campaign on Iran.

May 8, 2019

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Six Potential Nuclear Steps

Hoping to pressure Europe into providing more concessions, Tehran may threaten to reduce its commitments under the nuclear deal, but can it avoid escalation with Washington while doing so?

May 7, 2019

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Omer Carmi

Articles & Testimony

U.S.-Iran, Israel-Gaza Turn Mideast into a Danger Zone Again

American ships and bombers are arriving in the Gulf at a time when nerves are raw and various players are making risky escalation wagers.

May 6, 2019

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Khamenei’s Breaking Point: How to Get Iran Back to the Negotiating Table

The chances of extracting substantial concessions from the current regime are not great, but the odds fall to zero if Washington withholds security assurances or waits for the inevitably chaotic transition period.

May 2, 2019

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Mehdi Khalaji

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Making Sense of Iraq's PMF Arrests

By highlighting the hypocrisy of recent ‘housecleaning’ campaigns, Washington can show the Iraqi public that Iran’s Shia militia networks offer no genuine solution to rampant corruption.

Apr 26, 2019

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Phillip Smyth

Articles & Testimony

More Money at the Gas Pump May Be the Price of Pressuring Iran

President Trump may be counting on the fact that U.S. voters oppose both higher gas prices and another war, but in the end he may have to pick one or the other.

Apr 23, 2019

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Renewing the Iran Sanctions Waivers (Part 2): Energy and Afghan Trade

Washington should phase out the oil waivers carefully and prevent Chabahar port from becoming an escape valve for Iran.

Apr 22, 2019

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Patrick Clawson

Brief Analysis

Renewing the Iran Sanctions Waivers (Part 1): Nuclear Activities

Neither blanket extension nor wholesale cancellation is the best course, but several of the expiring waivers would serve U.S. interests if properly—and publicly—revised.

Apr 22, 2019

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Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Does Designation of the Revolutionary Guards Make a Difference?

The handful of new tools in question could expose Iraqi officials to sanctions and criminal liability given Baghdad's energy dependency on Iran.

Apr 18, 2019

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Matthew Levitt

Brief Analysis

How Sanctions Are Affecting Iran’s Airline Industry

Greater delays, downtime, and problems acquiring new planes have made Iran feel the heat, but its civil aviation sector continues to generate revenue for the regime.

Apr 17, 2019

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

Don't Pull Back from the Middle East

Safeguarding America’s widely agreed interests in the Middle East requires a substantial presence, as does the region’s tendency to export insecurity.

Apr 16, 2019

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Robert Satloff

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah-Iran Dynamics: A Proxy, Not a Partner

As U.S. pressure on Tehran heats up, many in Beirut, Washington, and Europe will argue that the group is still an independent actor, but past and recent evidence shows otherwise.

Apr 12, 2019

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Holiday Prologue to Exploiting Nuclear Loopholes

Although Tehran refrained from using its annual ‘Nuclear Day’ to threaten a wholesale breakout, it seems determined to push the West’s boundaries on centrifuge technology and other issues.

Apr 10, 2019

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Omer Carmi

Articles & Testimony

Trump Must Not Let Jared Kushner’s Peace Plan See the Light of Day

Releasing a U.S. proposal that is bound to fail would legitimize Israeli calls for annexation, give Saudi Arabia leverage over Washington, and strengthen Iran.

Apr 10, 2019

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Robert Satloff

Brief Analysis

The IRGC Designation Couldn’t Come at a Worse Time for Iran

The regime has repeatedly avoided precipitous responses to U.S. sanctions, and it will be even more risk-averse today due to its domestic flood crisis and fears of broader escalation.

Apr 9, 2019

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Omer Carmi

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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