Four Possible Scenarios for Tunisia’s Political Crisis

Tunisia is entering a difficult moment. Following the arrest in late January of a labor union official for organizing a strike by tollbooth operators, the government launched a relentless string of arrests against political opponents. The president accused the arrested individuals of “conspiring” against state security and/or labeled them as “terrorists” without in most cases presenting sufficient evidence for the charges. This has given momentum to a protest movement organized by the trade union UGTT, which on March 4 mobilized the largest number of demonstrators against President Kais Saied since he took office, with similarly large protests being organized by a coalition of political parties. There are four imaginable scenarios for how this crisis would be resolved...

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