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All Policy Analysis by Patrick Clawson
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Articles & Testimony
First Steps to Remake Iraq
What to do in Iraq postwar could easily become the next crisis within the Western alliance. Canada has the credibility as a close friend of the United States, a strong supporter of international institutions, and an experienced peacekeeper to play an important role in urging all sides to make the
Apr 8, 2003
◆
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
A View From Tehran:
War and the Challenges in the Post-Saddam Middle East
RAY TAKEYH Iran is facing its most acute crisis since the 1979 revolution. Over the past six years, political institutions have played a key role in opening the path to reform. Yet, the success of President Muhammad Khatami's efforts to involve the Iranian people in electoral processes and political institutions
Apr 7, 2003
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Ray Takeyh
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The State Department's 'No Dominoes' Report and Prospects for Democratization in a Post-Saddam Middle East
According to a classified report drafted by the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and leaked to the Los Angeles Times on March 14, overthrowing Saddam Husayn will not lead to a wave of successful democratic revolutions against Middle Eastern autocracies. Numerous press accounts describe the report --
Mar 17, 2003
◆
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iraq Crisis after the Blix Report:
Diplomatic and Military Options
On January 27, Hans Blix, director of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), delivered a straightforward report to the Security Council regarding Iraqi compliance with arms resolutions. Twelve years after taking up the obligation to disarm under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 687, Baghdad still does not genuinely
Jan 31, 2003
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Patrick Clawson
Philip Gordon
Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Tighten the Finger on the Trigger
Whenever he's been cornered over the last decade, Saddam Hussein has demonstrated his skill under pressure at stalling, dividing and diverting the West by appearing to cooperate. His strategy has been one of token progress cloaking substantial delays. "Time is working for us," he said in a rare interview last
Dec 5, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Shaping a New UN Draft Resolution on Iraq
The United States and Britain are consulting with the other three permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, France, and China) before introducing a new draft resolution on Iraq. Much attention has been given to whether the resolution will explicitly authorize the use of force. At least as important
Sep 27, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Turkish Election Preview:
Fragmentation of the Center
The people of Turkey go to the polls on November 3, 2002, amid a great deal of political and economic uncertainty. Possible outcomes range from a coherent pro-European Union (EU) coalition to a dramatic change following an outright electoral victory by a party attractive to Islamist voters. In Turkey, the
Sep 18, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
WMD Inspections in Iraq:
A Trap or an Opportunity?
President George W. Bush's speech to the UN General Assembly on September 12 is expected to lay out U.S. policy on Iraq. There are strong arguments against raising the issue of arms inspections at all during this speech, and even stronger arguments for proposing a specific deadline for resuming inspections
Sep 9, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
How to Build a New Iraq after Saddam
INTRODUCTION Whether changing the regime in Baghdad is a worthwhile U.S. policy depends in no small part on defining the shape that Iraq would most likely assume following Saddam Husayn's removal. Among other central objectives, any strategy for regime change should include the long-term goal of creating a stable and
Sep 1, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
The Palestinians' Lost Marshall Plans
The report released this week by the US Agency for International Development on malnutrition in the Palestinian territories signals how deep the humanitarian and economic crisis has become. It is heartening to see the growing concern about how to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians and at the same time give
Aug 9, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Reaction to New Bush Policy Shows America-Bashing Is Out of Style
Iran's democratic movement has had a busy few weeks. Today, the usually weak-kneed President Muhammad Khatami spoke out about the importance of democracy and warned hardliners against their crackdown on reformers: "No problem will be solved through the superficial elimination of a group. . . . [S]uch tendencies would go
Aug 7, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Place in the Axis:
Signs of Movement?
Near the end of the Clinton administration, some analysts expressed a degree of hope that Iran's reform movement would inject some measure of pragmatism into Iranian foreign policy. That hope seems to have faded. The Bush administration has established terrorism and proliferation -- two areas in which Iran has been
May 17, 2002
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Ray Takeyh
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Crawford Summit:
High Noon for U.S.-Saudi Relations?
After declining at least two earlier invitations since January 2001, Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is due to meet President George W. Bush for the first time this Thursday. The de facto leader of America's leading oil supplier (his elder half-brother, King Fahd, is ailing) had previously snubbed Washington's
Apr 24, 2002
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Simon Henderson
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Power to the People?
The Impact of Demography on Middle East Politics
In the year 1000, the Middle East had a population of approximately 30 million people, and it remained around that level until 1800. Between 1800 and 1900, however, the figure grew by 75 percent, and then by another 565 percent during the twentieth century, bringing the population to 386 million
Mar 25, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Ellen Laipson
Brief Analysis
Middle East Policy Update:
Where Are We Going? How Do We Get There?
On March 1, 2002, Dennis Ross, Patrick Clawson, and Matthew Levitt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Clawson and Ambassador Ross are, respectively, director for research and counselor/Ziegler distinguished fellow at the Institute. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks. Read a summary of Mr. Levitt's
Mar 7, 2002
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Dennis Ross
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran As Part of the Axis of Evil (Part II):
U.S. Policy Concerns
On January 31, following President George Bush's State of the Union condemnation of the "axis of evil," National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice explained, "Iran's direct support of regional and global terrorism, and its aggressive efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction, belie any good intentions it displayed in the days
Feb 5, 2002
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Assessing the $959 Million in Accelerated Economic Aid to Egypt
In a brief January 3 statement, the White House announced that Egypt is receiving $959 million in accelerated economic aid, the bulk of which was evidently disbursed in the closing days of 2001. While an important sign of continued U.S. support for the Hosni Mubarak government, this sudden and massive
Jan 7, 2002
◆
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Inspections in Iraq:
A Test for Saddam, Not a Good Solution for WMD
Like that of its predecessor, the Bush administration's policy toward Iraq appears to focus on the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the hands of Saddam Husayn's regime. Some suggest that U.S. policy should emphasize the resumption of inspections, suspended since 1998. However, there are strong reasons
Dec 20, 2001
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Focusing on Iraq:
The Question is How, Not Whether
In Washington, the debate over Iraq is shifting from the simple question of whether it should be targeted in phase II of the antiterror war, to how we should deal with a country that continually refuses to fulfill its UN obligations and surrender weapons of mass destruction (WMD). From the
Nov 29, 2001
◆
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Riots in Iran:
Implications for U.S. Policy
Over the last week, Iran has seen the most extensive rioting since the 1979 revolution. On Sunday, October 21, official accounts showed that public buildings, including thirty-two nationalized bank branches, were attacked in fifty-four Tehran neighborhoods. Rioting also occurred in cities across the country, with at least 180 arrested in
Oct 29, 2001
◆
Patrick Clawson
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