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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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Brief Analysis
U.S. Safe Zone Deal Can Help Turkey Come to Terms with the PKK and YPG
Checking the YPG’s ascendance in Syria could bring the PKK back to the negotiating table, ultimately making Turkey more amenable to Kurdish enclaves across the border.
Aug 7, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Growing Anti-Syrian Sentiment in Turkey
Refugees are being blamed for the country’s economic and social troubles, resulting in online hate speech, vigilante violence, and further pressure on the government to change the status quo in north Syria.
Aug 5, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why the U.S. Ejected Turkey from F-35 Fighter Jet Program, and Why the Turbulence Will Only Grow
The future of the bilateral relationship looks bleak after years of strategic divergence on crises in Iraq and Syria.
Jul 22, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Erbil Shooting: Implications for U.S.-Turkish Policy
If the PKK is confirmed as the perpetrator, Ankara will almost surely launch retaliation in Iraq or Syria, and Washington will have little choice but to stand aside.
Jul 18, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jul 17, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jul 12, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Video
Will Turkey's Purchase of Russian Missiles Rupture U.S. Ties?
How have relations between NATO allies Turkey and the United States come to the brink of historic crisis?
Jul 9, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
An Underdog Challenges Erdogan
The president, a former Istanbul mayor, has a rival in the current one.
Jul 9, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jul 3, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Video
Brief Analysis
The Istanbul Revote: What Happens Next?
Four experts discuss the opposition's landslide victory and its implications for Turkish politics generally and President Erdogan's future specifically.
Jun 26, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Lisel Hintz
Kemal Kirisci
Alan Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s Presidential System Isn’t Working. The Istanbul Election Shows Why.
Turkey is too diverse demographically, too big economically, and too complicated politically to be governed from a presidential palace.
Jun 24, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jun 23, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey and Russia Are Not Friends, Despite Appearances
The truth is that Ankara feels threatened by Moscow, but security concerns, mistrust of the West, and an inability to secure American missiles left Erdogan searching for an alternative.
Jun 16, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Andy Taylor
In-Depth Reports
Erdogan's Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East
The president has sought to restore Turkey's Ottoman-era reach and break ranks with traditional Western allies, but such an approach carries heavy risk of isolation, strategic miscalculation, and lost opportunities for the Turkish people.
Jun 10, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Race for Istanbul: Erdogan’s Plan A and B
Although massive state resources have been mobilized against Imamoglu, the opposition candidate has taken up the mantle of the underdog who could challenge the status quo nationally, just as Erdogan himself did two decades ago.
Jun 10, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
May 29, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s Failure on the Nile
How Turkey’s president went from being a regional Islamist leader in the Arab Spring to sharing Qatar’s role as the Middle East’s odd man out.
May 28, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Why Erdogan Will Win in Istanbul, and What This Means for Turkish Democracy
Despite the opposition’s resilience, the president can use any number of legal, political, or foreign policy tools to ensure his candidate wins this time around, no matter the reputational costs.
May 7, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
May 6, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Trump Has–Inadvertently–Provided a Fix to America’s Kurdish Problem with Turkey
Since 2014, Washington has relied on the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) to defeat ISIS in Syria. Yet Washington’s policy of working with the YPG in Syria, where U.S. support has helped the group soar, has concurrently undermined American policy regarding the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey, the
Apr 18, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
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