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In-Depth Reports

Continuity and Chaos

Exploring continuities and changes, this book provides the historical backdrop crucial to understanding how Iranian pride and sense of victimization combine to make its politics contentious and potentially dangerous. From the struggle between the Shah and Ayatollah Khomeini to the current tension between the reformers and traditionalists, a central issue

۱ نوامبر ۲۰۰۵

Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

The Worst Option

If Washington wants to change the Iranian regime's behavior, it may want to look for leverage beyond economic sanctions, including on the soccer pitch.

۱۶ اوت ۲۰۰۵

Patrick Clawson

Iranian Media Reactions to the Nuclear Impasse

Iran's hardline establishment often declares that all Iranian citizens are united in their determination to see Iran exercise its "right" to nuclear power and "self-sufficiency" -- that is, operation of the complete fuel cycle. But are all Iranians really so enthused by the national nuclear program and heedless of international

۱۵ اوت ۲۰۰۵

The Ticking Clock toward a Nuclear Iran

The periodic crises in Iranian-European negotiations over Iran's nuclear program -- including yesterday's proposal offered by the British, French, and German foreign ministries that has yet to be accepted by Tehran -- trigger some important questions: Who profits more from extending the talks? Does the West really prevent Iranian nuclearization

۲۶ مهٔ ۲۰۰۵

Michael Herzog

Nuclear Dangers in the Middle East:

Threats and Responses

Although the Palestinian intifada led to the death of many Israelis (proportionally speaking, the equivalent of 45,000 Americans being killed by terrorism each year), Iranian possession of nuclear weapons would be even worse. Such a development would constitute an existential threat for three reasons. First, Israel’s small size and concentration

۱۸ مهٔ ۲۰۰۵

Iran Uses Presidential Campaign to Advance Its Nuclear Program

Iran appears to be fomenting a crisis over its nuclear program as the campaign for the June 17 presidential elections gets underway (by May 14, candidates have to register; by May 24, the Guardian Council will announce which candidates are approved). Assertiveness on the Nuclear Program Ever since Iran signed

۱۳ مهٔ ۲۰۰۵

Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Iraq and After:

Taking the Right Lessons for Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction

The following paper was originally published by the National Defense University's Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, appearing as Occasional Paper no. 2. For more on the center, visit its website. Recent proliferation surprises in the Middle East—the failure to find weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in

۱ مهٔ ۲۰۰۵

Security, Reform, and Peace:

The Three Pillars of U.S. Strategy in the Middle East

The United States is facing an extraordinary moment of challenge in the Middle East, one that demands an integrated U.S. strategy built on a set of three pillars: security, reform, and peace. The security agenda is the most pressing, but it alone is not sufficient. If the United States wants

۲۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۵

Articles & Testimony

When Will Iran Be a Nuclear Power?

When will Iran achieve "nuclear status"? When other states form their own policies on the assumption that Iran has nuclear weapons—whether or not it has declared or tested a nuclear bomb. The earliest warning will probably come from Iran acting in a more assertive manner. Despite all the concern in

۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۵

Patrick Clawson

The Risk of a Nuclearizing Middle East

The statements about Iran's nuclear program made by the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Muhammad ElBaradei, have served as an eye opener for many Turkish officials, both from civilian and military ranks. They are now taking Iran’s activities in the nuclear field much more seriously and

۱۵ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۵

Articles & Testimony

Right Course on Iran

Susan E. Rice ["We Need a Real Iran Policy," op-ed, Dec. 30] derides as "bizarre" President Bush's statement that "we're relying upon others" to take the leadership role in stopping Iran's nuclear program. She dismisses out of hand the Bush administration's acceptance of European leadership on this issue, claiming that

۱۲ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۰۵

Patrick Clawson

Influencing Iran's Nuclear Activities through Major Power Cooperation

This is the second in a two-part series on diplomacy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program. Read Part I. The Iran nuclear issue will be on the international agenda in the coming months. The often-postponed visit to Tehran by the head of Russia's Atomic Energy Agency (Minatom) Alexander Rumyantsev to sign

۳۰ دسامبر ۲۰۰۴

Patrick Clawson

Carrots for Iran?

Lessons from Libya

This is the first part of a two-part series on diplomacy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program and looks at U.S.-European relations. Read Part II. As European and Iranian officials began negotiations December 14 on whether to make permanent Iran's temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, eight former Western foreign ministers issued

۱۶ دسامبر ۲۰۰۴

Patrick Clawson

Clarifying and Strengthening the Iran-European Nuclear Accord

On November 25, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet to consider Iran's nuclear program, in light of the November 14 Paris Accords between Iran and Britain, France, and Germany (the E3). If the Paris Accords are going to work as a stepping-stone toward ending Iran's

۲۲ نوامبر ۲۰۰۴

Patrick Clawson

The IAEA and Iran:

The Perils of Inaction

Deep divisions among the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), currently meeting in Vienna, continue to hamper U.S. efforts on two key fronts: pressing Iran to suspend work on its nuclear program, and referring allegations of Iranian violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to the UN

۱۶ سپتامبر ۲۰۰۴

Michael Eisenstadt

Middle East Weapons Proliferation:

Lessons from Iraq and Beyond

New Lessons Regarding Proliferation The culmination of Operation Iraqi Freedom has given rise to much debate concerning the exact nature of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. Similarly, ongoing negotiations with Iran regarding its nuclear activities have also been dogged by imprecise intelligence and unclear strategies. Both of these

۳۰ ژوئن ۲۰۰۴

Michael Eisenstadt

Articles & Testimony

Implications of a Nuclear Iran

Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia The emergence of a nuclear Iran could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, leading to a heightened risk of conflict, and possibly nuclear war. This raises several questions: How close is

۲۴ ژوئن ۲۰۰۴

Michael Eisenstadt

Articles & Testimony

Desperately Seeking WMD

BOOK REVIEW Disarming Iraq By Hans Blix Pantheon, 285 pages, $34 Hans Blix has produced a straightforward, easy-to-read account of the UN's Iraq inspections and the crisis at the UN in the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq war. With its clear style and blunt but polite language, Disarming Iraq will

۲۶ مارس ۲۰۰۴

Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Libya's WMD Renunciation:

How to Consolidate and Replicate

Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, Hearing on Weapons of Mass Destruction, Terrorism, Human Rights, and the Future of U.S.-Libyan Relations I will confine myself to two issues: first, how to consolidate Libya's apparent decision to give up weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and second, how to replicate

۱۰ مارس ۲۰۰۴

Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Delay, Deter and Contain, Roll-Back:

Toward a Strategy for Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

Recent revelations regarding Iran's nuclear program have reinforced suspicions that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons option, and may be a few short years away from acquiring "the bomb." While senior Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons and that the possession and use of

۱ مارس ۲۰۰۴

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