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Iran and the Road Ahead

Recently, two important developments have broken months of gridlock on the Iranian nuclear issue: a third round of UN sanctions and a new warning by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Although both measures are positive, their ultimate impact will depend on how aggressively and effectively key governments implement them

۶ مارس ۲۰۰۸

Michael Jacobson

Pakistani Elections and the Middle East

After a six-week delay following the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, Pakistanis will go to the polls on February 18 to elect a new National Assembly. Pakistan and Afghanistan are "where many of our most important interests intersect," as Director of National Intelligence J. Michael McConnell told the Senate

۱۵ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۸

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Artificial Intelligence

Though the White House press release read "President Bush to travel to Middle East to follow up on progress made at Annapolis," his January trip actually centered on Iran, a country he did not visit. America's friends -- the Persian Gulf monarchs as well as Israel -- fear that the

۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۰۸

Iranian Threats and the UN Sanctions Debate

On January 26, Hussein Shariatmadari -- the publisher of Iran's most influential newspaper and a close confidant of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei -- stated that attacks on "Zionists, Americans, and European countries that support Israel," as well as on compliant regional rulers, were both morally permissible and easily carried out

۲۹ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۰۸

Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Iran's Small Boats Are a Big Problem

The confrontation this month in the Persian Gulf between Navy warships and small boats of Iran's Revolutionary Guard may have come as a surprise to the public at large, but not to me. I witnessed a very similar event five years ago during the invasion of Iraq. It was April

۲۰ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۰۸

David B. Crist

Domestic Issues Trump Foreign Policy in Iran

At each stop on his recent Middle East tour, President Bush centered his foreign policy agenda on the growing threat from Iran. But inside the Islamic Republic, domestic policies -- and not the international issues that Bush highlighted -- are at the center of political debate. Economic Issues Top Agenda

۱۸ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۰۸

Mehdi Khalaji

In-Depth Reports

Autumn of Decisions:

A Critical Moment for American Engagement in the Middle East

The 2007 Weinberg Founders Conference explored a number of critical issues, with an eye toward the overall direction of U.S. Middle East policy as the Bush administration enters its final year in office. In keynote plenary sessions and breakout seminars, and over coffee in the hallways, a select group of

۱۷ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۰۸

Articles & Testimony

GAO Misleads on Iran Sanctions

There are no foolproof metrics by which to measure the impact of sanctions, whether related to proliferation, terrorism or other issues. On that discreet point the recent GAO report on the impact of Iran sanctions gets it right, and its recommendation that more be done to assess the impact of

۱۷ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۰۸

Raising the Costs for Tehran

In the wake of the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, questions are being raised as to whether sanctions and financial pressure remain a viable approach to changing Tehran's decisionmaking on its nuclear program. As evidence of this strategy's demise, critics point to the foundering attempts to negotiate a third

۳ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۰۸

Michael Jacobson

Articles & Testimony

The Clock Ticks:

Sanction Iran Now

A version of this article appeared in German in Financial Times Deutschland under the title, "Die Uhr Tickt." The latest U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities has been the subject of much analysis, most of which has been off point. The new estimate opens with

۱۹ دسامبر ۲۰۰۷

The European View on Iran:

Fallout from the New U.S. Intelligence Estimate

On December 13, 2007, Neil Crompton, Hans-Peter Hinrichsen, and Nicholas Roche addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Mr. Crompton is a political counselor at the British embassy who served until recently as Iran coordinator and head of the Iraq Policy Unit at the British Foreign Office. Dr. Hinrichsen

۱۷ دسامبر ۲۰۰۷

Articles & Testimony

The Can't-Win Kids

The National Intelligence Estimate on Iran presents an interesting paradox: Though almost certainly the product of rigorous assessment and questioning, it may actually leave us less secure over time. How can such an improved product of spycraft have such a negative effect? It can when it frames the issue mistakenly

۱۲ دسامبر ۲۰۰۷

Dennis Ross

U.S.-Israeli Dialogue on Iran's Nuclear Program

On December 4, 2007, Chuck Freilich and Geoffrey Kemp addressed a Washington Institute Policy Forum marking the release of Mr. Freilich's new Institute paper Speaking about the Unspeakable: U.S.-Israeli Dialogue on Iran's Nuclear Program. The author, the Institute's 2007 Ira Weiner fellow, teaches at Tel Aviv and Harvard Universities; previously

۱۲ دسامبر ۲۰۰۷

Chuck Freilich

Articles & Testimony

Iran Report Makes Case for Keeping Pressure On

Some analysts are arguing that because last week's National Intelligence Estimate concluded that Iran halted its covert nuclear program in 2003, sanctions against Iran are no longer necessary. In fact, the opposite conclusion could be drawn from the report, which suggests that Iran is vulnerable to outside pressure on the

۱۰ دسامبر ۲۰۰۷

Articles & Testimony

Dealing with Iran

Why worry about Iran? Because the new U.S. intelligence report says Iran is making great progress at its huge fuel-cycle factories in producing enriched uranium, which is the fissile material at the core of a nuclear bomb. The report says Iran will have enough enriched uranium for a bomb sometime

۹ دسامبر ۲۰۰۷

Articles & Testimony

Contending with Iran's Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities

This week, the U.S. intelligence community released to Capitol Hill the unclassified key judgments of its latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities. The new estimate opens with the startling judgment that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003, which is sure

۵ دسامبر ۲۰۰۷

How Much Does Weaponization Matter?

Judging Iran's Nuclear Program

The just-released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), "Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities," is about weaponization, not the enrichment and fuel cycle issues that have been the focus of multiple UN Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board resolutions regarding Iran's nuclear program. The NIE only suggests that Tehran has

۴ دسامبر ۲۰۰۷

Patrick Clawson

In-Depth Reports

Speaking about the Unspeakable:

U.S.-Israeli Dialogue on Iran's Nuclear Program

Despite the longstanding and ever-evolving "special relationship" between the United States and Israel, the two allies do not appear to have engaged in substantive discussions on key facets of their most pressing mutual concern, the Iranian nuclear threat. Specifically, there has been little if any dialogue on the possibility of

۳ دسامبر ۲۰۰۷

Chuck Freilich

Articles & Testimony

How Europe Can Pressure Iran

Executive Summary Britain finds itself in a unique position to place tremendous pressure on Iran to desist from its nuclear activities due to the central role that the City of London along with New York plays in the international financial system. Realizing the leverage that the U.S. financial markets give

۹ نوامبر ۲۰۰۷

Articles & Testimony

How Europe Can Pressure Iran

The U.S. ratcheted up the financial pressure against Tehran last week, unilaterally slapping sanctions on Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp, three state-owned banks, and a number of key officials for their involvement in the regime's terrorist financing and WMD-related activities. Realizing the leverage that American financial markets give Washington

۲ نوامبر ۲۰۰۷

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