لبنان

In January 2015, an airstrike in Syria – reported to have been carried out by Israel – killed several Hezbollah operatives, including Jihad Mughniyeh, son of the Lebanese terror group's late operational mastermind, Imad Mughniyeh. The elder Mughniyeh played a crucial role in Hezbollah's terrorist strategy, tactics, and tradecraft, as

With its Lebanese Shiite constituency increasingly vulnerable, its Iranian patron hobbled by other commitments, and its regional reputation in tatters, Hezbollah will likely think twice before responding forcefully to the Quneitra attack.

A tactical shift by Hezbollah should not be seen as a genuine change in its ideology: it was and remains the party of Iran, not Lebanon.

Given its recent track record of targeting Israelis, Hezbollah's decision to take public responsibility for a new border attack likely has more to do with burnishing its domestic "resistance" credentials than sending a deterrent signal to Israel.

Lebanon's precarious state has worsened as ISIS beheads citizens and holds troops and police hostage.

By siding with the Assad regime and taking up arms against Sunni rebels, Hezbollah has placed itself at the epicenter of a sectarian conflict that has nothing to do with its purported raison d'etre of fighting Israel.

Lebanon is in grave danger of becoming the next ISIS victim, and recent clashes in Arsal were just a taste of things to come.

If Hariri is to lead Lebanon out of the current morass, he will have to take a risk and stray from Beirut's well-worn path of complete acquiescence to Hezbollah.

Although rocket fire from Lebanon and Syria remains sporadic for now, Israel and other parties need to be aware of the potential for serious miscalculation and escalation.