All Policy Analysis by فرزین ندیمی

Tehran will likely double down on missiles and drones—its most effective weapons during recent conflicts—creating path dependencies that could become critical vulnerabilities if U.S. and partner countermeasures improve further.

Any postwar system must preserve the “transit passage” regime, enable ships to safely resume use of the original IMO route, and reject mandatory fees, veto rights, or other Iranian tactics for exerting permanent control over one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

Regardless of where the current round of escalation goes, Tehran will continue using ceasefires, front-loaded sanctions waivers, and tit-for-tat attack cycles as opportunities to reconstitute its forces until Washington imposes hard, verifiable limits on its fastest-recovering asymmetric capabilities.

Tehran is hoping that its Persian Gulf Strait Authority will establish “facts on the ground” and give it leverage at the negotiating table, so Washington and its partners need to respond right away with a suite of military, economic, and diplomatic countermeasures.

The war has shown that Iran’s one-way attack drones are highly adaptable tools of coercion and military effect, able to continue imposing costs across the Gulf region and beyond even after heavy losses.

Tehran’s drone ecosystem has been hit hard, but not at its roots—with help from Russia and China, the regime could restore many of the program’s capabilities within months while steadily working toward more dangerous next-generation models.

His appointment as SNSC secretary shows that the regime is relying on a veteran hardliner to manage the crisis and preserve control.

Given his strong ties to the IRGC, Khamenei’s son might pursue extreme strategic options.

Acting now offers the best chance to halt atrocities and shape a peaceful transition, while waiting would only ensure that the next phase of the crisis is bloodier for Iranians, more dangerous for the region, and more difficult to influence.

Since the June war, Tehran has hastily doubled down on Russian and Chinese partnerships to weather sanctions and deter future attacks, but Moscow and Beijing are hesitant to invest deeply in return—and Washington should make sure they stay that way.

Given Tehran’s long record of using maritime provocations to counter increased international pressure, the United States and its partners must be ready to respond swiftly and forcefully against ship seizures, mine warfare, suicide drones, and more.

The latest attacks make clear that the international community must guarantee the freedom and safety of all ships transiting the Red Sea, combining a permanent military mission with assistance from regional countries and private security firms.

A compilation of views on the next round of prospective talks with Iran, sanctions relief options, military and technical considerations, the international role, and more.

Four experts assess how outside players might respond to the showdown, and whether Tehran will switch up its calculus on procurement, attack tactics, and other military matters as the fight goes on.

Given Iran’s unchecked missile buildup since the last nuclear deal, any future agreement should include enforceable limits on the development and stockpiling of long-range missiles to ensure lasting regional security and nonproliferation.

In negotiations, the Iranian regime prefers to operate discreetly and secretly, allowing Tehran to shape the information spectrum and protract talks to buy time and wear down their negotiation counterparts. By shining light on the diplomatic process, U.S. policymakers can provide a counter-narrative that takes to task Iranian intransigence and provides accurate information for the Iranian public.

The Houthis have shown little willingness or ability to accurately distinguish between the ships they target, leaving Washington and its partners with no choice but to doubt the group’s supposed “ceasefire” and keep up the pressure.

Despite questions about the utility of its huge missile arsenal—whose importance has only increased since the collapse of the “axis of resistance”—Iran will likely double down on this capability to ensure the viability of its military strategy.

Two experts offer a detailed infographic and accompanying analysis to chart attack trends over the past year and forecast what’s in store for the Red Sea and surrounding waterways.

Amid serious escalation in the Middle East, the United States should more clearly frame its recent deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region as a warning to Iran—and reinforce this with more posturing, messaging, and accelerated deployment of deep penetrators.