All Policy Analysis by فرزین ندیمی

A compilation of views on the next round of prospective talks with Iran, sanctions relief options, military and technical considerations, the international role, and more.

Four experts assess how outside players might respond to the showdown, and whether Tehran will switch up its calculus on procurement, attack tactics, and other military matters as the fight goes on.

Given Iran’s unchecked missile buildup since the last nuclear deal, any future agreement should include enforceable limits on the development and stockpiling of long-range missiles to ensure lasting regional security and nonproliferation.

In negotiations, the Iranian regime prefers to operate discreetly and secretly, allowing Tehran to shape the information spectrum and protract talks to buy time and wear down their negotiation counterparts. By shining light on the diplomatic process, U.S. policymakers can provide a counter-narrative that takes to task Iranian intransigence and provides accurate information for the Iranian public.

The Houthis have shown little willingness or ability to accurately distinguish between the ships they target, leaving Washington and its partners with no choice but to doubt the group’s supposed “ceasefire” and keep up the pressure.

Despite questions about the utility of its huge missile arsenal—whose importance has only increased since the collapse of the “axis of resistance”—Iran will likely double down on this capability to ensure the viability of its military strategy.

Two experts offer a detailed infographic and accompanying analysis to chart attack trends over the past year and forecast what’s in store for the Red Sea and surrounding waterways.

Amid serious escalation in the Middle East, the United States should more clearly frame its recent deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region as a warning to Iran—and reinforce this with more posturing, messaging, and accelerated deployment of deep penetrators.

Despite significant vulnerabilities, the redundancies in Iran’s energy production would limit the effects of any strike, while the consequences for Israeli, Gulf, and global energy markets could be significant.

در میان موجی از تحرکات دیپلماتیک و استقرار توانایی‌های نظامی ایالات متحده در منطقه، مشخص نیست که ایران شرمسار از کشته شدن اسماعیل هنیه در پایتخت خود به اسراییل حمله خواهد کرد یا خیر، اما یک نکته روشن است: اگر به ایران اجازه داده شود که حمله مستقیم به اسراییل را بدون پیامدهای معنی‌دار تکرار کند، سابقه خطرناکی ایجاد خواهد شد.

چهار کارشناس انستیتو واشینگتن در مطلب زیر به بررسی محاسبات اسراییل در پشت انجام چنین حملات پر سر و صدایی در این برهه زمانی، تأثیرات احتمالی آنها بر روی مذاکرات آزادسازی گروگان‌های غزه، نیاز احتمالی ایران به پاسخ نظامی برای حفظ آبرو، و موارد دیگر پرداخته‌اند.

Available data suggests the Yemeni group has been going after vessels carrying Russian cargo, particularly if an operator's ships have visited Israeli ports.

Direct strikes from the Yemeni group are unlikely at the moment, but a more aggressive Hezbollah could alter the threat picture.

If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.

President Raisi’s fatal crash put a spotlight on the dire state of aviation safety in Iran, but the regime’s gross mismanagement and corrupt profiteering are to blame, not foreign sanctions.

Links to Israel-linked companies, especially in light of the Rafah invasion, are again the culprit.

Even increased aggressive activity in the Indian Ocean will be unlikely to seriously disrupt maritime traffic and global trade—but vessels calling on Israeli ports will need to take extra precautions.

Low-key actions like seizures can increase regional and global concerns and increase Iran's leverage.

دو مقام پیشین آمریکایی و اسراییلی و یک کارشناس امنیتی برای بررسی حمله بی‌سابقه ایران، پاسخ بالقوه اسراییل، و گزینه‌های ایالات متحده برای جلوگیری از شروع یک جنگ تمام عیار منطقه‌ای گرد هم آمدند.

Riyadh’s aim to become a global logistics hub connecting three continents will face challenges if risks to southern Red Sea shipping persist at their current levels.