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Turkey’s Syria Offensive Puts Alliance with U.S. Near Breaking Point
Erdogan is relying on his personal relationship with President Trump to stave off congressional anger, but bilateral ties cannot function if civilian and military agencies lack faith in each other.
Oct 9, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Trump’s Troop Withdrawal Gives Turkey Access to Syria—and ISIS Space to Rebuild
If the president insists on removing U.S. forces before conditions on the ground are sufficiently stable, he will clear the way for a terrorist resurgence.
Oct 8, 2019
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Dana Stroul
Brief Analysis
As Protests Explode, Iraq Must Get Serious About Reform
The public’s demands are just and their patience is all but gone, so Baghdad needs to get on with the hard work of opening up the economy and providing critical services before the violence spirals out of control.
Oct 4, 2019
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Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Supreme Leader Putting ‘Heroic Flexibility’ Aside
Khamenei’s latest high-profile speech may indicate his growing confidence that Iran can cope with U.S. pressure and set a high bar for resuming talks.
Oct 4, 2019
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Omer Carmi
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Kuwait: A Changing System Under Stress
Sudden Succession Essay Series
In a Gulf region experiencing sharp tensions, how might a leadership transition in Kuwait affect a much-needed node of stability?
Oct 4, 2019
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Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
Simon Henderson
◆
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Tunisian Elections Suggest a Move Beyond Secularist and Islamist Politics
The Tunisian presidential elections on September 15 were held under a strange atmosphere—one that suggested a complete lack of trust in the government and ruling elite that has controlled the public sphere since the 2011 revolution. The official results announced two days after elections by the independent electoral commission known
Oct 4, 2019
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Dhia Otay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How the Syrian War Shifted Attitudes Towards Arab–Israeli Rapprochement
Anti-Israel mobilization and rhetoric have always been a prominent feature of official Arab discourse, regardless of political orientation. Islamist, nationalist, and secular parties have all seen vocal hatred of Israel as a cornerstone for rallying support and a vehicle to spread unrelated political messages to achieve related objectives, with unrelated
Oct 4, 2019
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Hadeel Oueis
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Bigoted Populism May Spell the End of Lebanon as a Modern State
An existential battle is raging in Lebanon regarding the country’s national character, identity, and prospects, with nothing less at stake than the success or failure of Lebanon as a modern project. Given that the country occupies a unique place in the wider Arab consciousness, the implications of its failure have
Oct 4, 2019
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Hassan Mneimneh
Articles & Testimony
U.S.-Saudi Ties, a Year After Khashoggi’s Death
The crown prince’s televised apologies and welcome domestic reforms are overshadowed by his government’s ongoing litany of human rights abuses.
Oct 3, 2019
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Egypt, Haftar, and U.S. Passive Interest in the Libyan Conflict
Though Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar promised a short battle for Tripoli, his Libyan National Army (LNA) forces are still engaged in a months-long siege of the city against he forces of the Islamist-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. In the midst of Libya’s civil
Oct 3, 2019
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Mohamed Maher
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Prioritizes Its Own Interests, Putting Lebanon at Risk
As demonstrators rail against economic problems, corruption, and sectarianism, the group’s role in undermining the public’s financial and physical security is coming under greater scrutiny.
Oct 3, 2019
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Matthew Levitt
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Guidelines for Israel's National Security Strategy
This new study examines the current map of Israel’s threats and proposes principles to address them as the basis for a comprehensive national security strategy.
Oct 2, 2019
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Gadi Eisenkot
Gabi Siboni
Video
Brief Analysis
Responding to the Saudi Oil Attack: A Challenge for U.S. Policy
Three experts discuss Washington’s potential reaction, which will have powerful implications not only in the Gulf states, but everywhere that America and its allies face off against Iran and its proxies, from Iraq to Lebanon to Gaza.
Oct 1, 2019
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Suzanne Maloney
Norman Roule
Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Helping Iraq Take Charge of Its Command-and-Control Structure
Recent organizational shifts offer a glimmer of hope that Baghdad will stand up to Iranian influence, but implementation will be the test of their actual merit.
Sep 30, 2019
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Israeli Elections Produce Mixed Feelings for Palestinians
The results of the Israeli elections have created mixed feelings, bringing a bit of despair along with a bit of hope as well. On the one hand, for Palestinians such as myself, there is a despair that there was little difference in terms of the peace process whether the right-wing
Sep 27, 2019
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Mohammed Dajani
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Erdogan's Empire: The Evolution of Turkish Foreign Policy
A lively discussion of how Ottoman history, pro-Western precedent, and sharp regional setbacks have shaped the Turkish leader's shifting approach to foreign affairs and relations with Washington.
Sep 27, 2019
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Soner Cagaptay
Amanda Sloat
Molly Montgomery
Tomasz Hoskins
Articles & Testimony
The Economics of Calm
The stabilization efforts brokered by Israel’s defense establishment have kept a lid on things so far, but the hazards of this approach may be unsustainable at a time of donor drought and Palestinian institutional erosion.
Sep 26, 2019
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Katherine Bauer
Brief Analysis
How to Present Evidence of Iranian Involvement in the Saudi Attack
By working effectively with the UN, Washington and Riyadh can help foster global consensus on Iran’s culpability, creating a firm basis for multilateral censure that could induce caution in Tehran.
Sep 26, 2019
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Michael Knights
Tim Michetti
Articles & Testimony
Iran Is Surviving, in Spite of Trump's 'Maximum Pressure'
Regardless of the Hormuz initiative's supposedly peaceful intent, foreign officials should be careful not to give Tehran any rights in the strategic waterway that don’t have to be given.
Sep 25, 2019
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Simon Henderson
In-Depth Reports
Shifting Landscape:
Russia's Military Role in the Middle East
In September 2015, Moscow made its first push outside former Soviet borders when it authorized airstrikes in Syria. More pertinently, the move—and Russia's broader intervention in Syria—constituted a step toward reshaping the whole regional balance of power, taking advantage of a diminishing U.S. footprint. According to the Russian defense minister
Sep 25, 2019
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Anna Borshchevskaya
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