Policy Analysis

At a time when Westerners are questioning the Islamist takeover in Damascus, Sunni Arab treatment of the Assad family’s broader Alawite base will offer insights into the nascent government’s true stance on religious tolerance, transitional justice, and state-building.

After blows to Iranian proxies across the region, reformists led by President Pezeshkian are prioritizing diplomacy and economic recovery, whereas hardliners are lamenting lost battlefield opportunities and seeking to preserve the regime.

An effective response to the group's persistent aggression should include strengthening the United Nations verification and inspection mechanism, preparing sanctions against actors who violate UN resolutions, and taking steps to interdict arms transfers.

The leader of Asaib Ahl al-Haq has been abroad for weeks, and his movements (and those of his deputies back home) are worth watching closely.

The Hashd may already be deterred somewhat by recent events, but Trump will likely seek to maintain the pressure by withholding annual military assistance to Baghdad.

Despite questions about the utility of its huge missile arsenal—whose importance has only increased since the collapse of the “axis of resistance”—Iran will likely double down on this capability to ensure the viability of its military strategy.

Iran’s Middle East “axis of resistance” and the Eurasian axis it shares with China, Russia, and North Korea are increasingly challenging the global and regional order, highlighting the need for more partnerships and a comprehensive counterstrategy with special efforts focusing on Tehran.

Syrian civil society figures join a former U.S. official to discuss local sentiments on the ground and assess the daunting challenges of building a better state.

The delegation’s findings on key political and security issues will have a major impact on future U.S. engagement with Syria’s new leaders, including the decision on whether or not to remove sanctions.

Trump says Syria is a “mess” that America should leave alone, but that would be far more dangerous than staying.

In the first episode of the Institute’s Syria Breakdown series, Syria analyst Andrew Tabler explains the domestic and foreign factors that led to the Assad government’s rapid demise.

Prompt military action is helping Israel counter the immediate security risks of Syria’s sudden upheaval, but additional efforts will be needed to seize the broader opportunities of this new era.

Although some near-term waivers should be issued to help untangle the complicated web of designations and facilitate humanitarian aid, any broader delisting of HTS, Jolani, and others needs to be earned, not gifted.

Moscow is already taking steps to ensure that it can continue confounding U.S. interests in Ukraine and Syria even if the outcomes on these fronts wind up differently than expected.

Though it may seem counterintuitive, the Middle East stands a decent chance of becoming more stable in the coming year if Trump takes advantage of Iran’s weakness to broker good deals.

One of Iran's most trusted lieutenants in the Iraqi militia scene is loudly rattling his saber against the U.S. presence in the Middle East.

The CMC's latest restrictions on press freedoms indicate that Iran-backed groups fear they could be ousted from power much like Bashar al-Assad next door.

Two experts offer a detailed infographic and accompanying analysis to chart attack trends over the past year and forecast what’s in store for the Red Sea and surrounding waterways.

Nujaba's immediate allergic reaction to regime change in Syria is a bellwether of how vulnerable Coordination Framework militias feel as pro-Iran hierarchies come tumbling down.

Even as they celebrate the demise of Assad’s dictatorship, U.S. officials should take a “verify, don’t trust” approach to HTS, judging the group by its actions on the ground before considering the removal of sanctions.