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Policy Analysis

Policy Notes 28

After the Jarabulus Offensive: How Far Will Turkey Shift Its Syria Policy?

Soner Cagaptay

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September 2016


Turkey's Syria policy appears to be changing trajectory, signaled by three recent developments: the July 16 attempted coup, which exposed rifts within the military; the August 9 meeting between Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian president Vladimir Putin; and Turkey's incursion into Syria, culminating in the capture of Jarabulus on August 24. Moreover, Turkey has implemented significant foreign policy shifts over the past year, including normalization of relations with Israel and a desire to mend ties with Russia.

In light of these events, how far and in which direction will Turkey change course in Syria's civil war? In this new Policy Note, Soner Cagaptay tackles these questions, weighing the possibility of developments in three key areas: Turkey's relations with Russia, a deal struck by Moscow and Washington to end the Syrian war, and Erdogan's domestic policy.

THE AUTHOR

Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute. He has written extensively on U.S.-Turkish relations, Turkish domestic politics, and Turkish nationalism.