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Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East

Iran’s decision to launch a direct, state-on-state attack against Israel on April 13 increased the risk of overt conventional conflict in the Middle East. This attack was significant in scope, scale, and complexity, employing hundreds of one-way attack drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Equally significant was the U.S.-organized effort to defeat Iran’s attack, working with Israel as well as European and Arab allies to integrate capabilities and defend the region’s airspace. Although not publicly claimed, the April 19 Israeli response targeted air defenses protecting Iran’s nuclear program deep inside the country, without damage to civilian infrastructure or civilian casualties. And while the April 2024 escalation cycle appears closed, the region has now crossed the threshold for state-on-state attacks, with Israel and Iran both displaying potent capabilities and resolve.

This series by Washington Institute experts sheds light on the opportunities and risks of the post-April 13 strategic environment.

Articles in this Series

President Joe Biden gestures while speaking - source: White House
Articles & Testimony
There Is Still Time to Stop a Wider War in the Middle East
Because the landscape has shifted since April, the Biden administration’s previous script for preventing irreversible escalation may no longer work.
Aug 15, 2024
◆
  • Dana Stroul
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
U.S. and Saudi air force officers greet one another during a joint exercise - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
Security Cooperation in a Changed Region: How to Advance the U.S.-GCC Defense Working Groups
From aligning weapons acquisition strategies and improving intelligence sharing to getting the diplomatic framing right, U.S. officials can do more to advance regional air defense and maritime security through this week’s working groups and beyond.
May 21, 2024
◆
  • Dana Stroul
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Iron Dome rockets intercepting Hamas missiles over Tel Aviv
Brief Analysis
How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Iran’s Attack?
Despite the success of the allied response on April 13, Iran’s attack calls into question the sustainability of the current approach, suggesting that policymakers should rethink military procurement, force posture, and deterrence in the Middle East.
May 6, 2024
◆
  • Andrew G. Clemmensen
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Articles & Testimony
Why Israel Should Declare a Unilateral Cease-Fire in Gaza
Doing so could turn the tables on Hamas and Iran while simultaneously advancing normalization with Saudi Arabia and other regional governments.
May 1, 2024
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  • Dennis Ross
  • David Makovsky
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Brief Analysis
Denial or Punishment? The U.S.-Israel Debate About How Best to Deter Iran
Experience shows that a balanced strategy blending deterrence by denial and deterrence by punishment can more effectively contain Iran.
Apr 26, 2024
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Brief Analysis
The Palestinian Arena in the Shadow of the Iran-Israel Crisis
The crisis has given the United States, Israel, and their partners a unique opportunity to build an international coalition against Iran and show the Palestinians that the “resistance” camp is not their only viable path.
Apr 25, 2024
◆
  • Neomi Neumann
  • Devorah Margolin
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East

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