Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Iron Dome rockets intercepting Hamas missiles over Tel Aviv

How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Iran’s Attack?

Despite the success of the allied response on April 13, Iran’s attack calls into question the sustainability of the current approach, suggesting that policymakers should rethink military procurement, force posture, and deterrence in the Middle East.

May 6, 2024

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Andrew G. Clemmensen

◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi touring a nuclear power plant in Ukraine - source: United Nations

Brief Analysis

Nuclear Agency Chief Visits Iran: Expectations and Next Steps

Given the latest uptick in hostilities between Iran and Israel and their reported threats against nuclear facilities, the visit will likely emphasize diplomacy.

May 3, 2024

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Simon Henderson

Fikra Forum

Qaani’s Growing Leadership Struggles in a Post-Soleimani World

After the killing of Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani, Esmail Qaani may have inherited a role for which he was not prepared, bringing instead a new style of leadership to the IRGC.

May 1, 2024

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Jaber Rajabi

Syrian Arab tribal mitiias supported by Iran, 2023

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Understanding the IRGC's Past, Present, and Future Use of Syrian Tribal Militias

Iran's development of Arab tribal militias in eastern Syria will likely accelerate again, based on the model established in Aleppo and backed by new IRGC-funded social, economic, and administrative "wings."

Apr 30, 2024

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Abdullah Hayek

◆ Militia Spotlight

The car carrier Hyperion Ray (IMO 9690559) was struck near Fujairah, UAE, in April 2021. The ship was owned by Israel-based Ray Shipping Ltd when it was attacked. Photo credit: Rick Voice via MarineTraffic.com.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Pay Attention to Ship Seizures, Not Threats to Close Strait of Hormuz

Low-key actions like seizures can increase regional and global concerns and increase Iran's leverage.

Apr 29, 2024

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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi

◆ Maritime Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Denial or Punishment? The U.S.-Israel Debate About How Best to Deter Iran

Experience shows that a balanced strategy blending deterrence by denial and deterrence by punishment can more effectively contain Iran.

Apr 26, 2024

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Michael Eisenstadt

◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East

Brief Analysis

Nuclear Gloss to Pakistan’s Diplomacy with Iran and Saudi Arabia

Multiple high-level visits suggest economic desperation mixed with strategic—and possibly nuclear—opportunism.

Apr 25, 2024

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Simon Henderson

The national flag of Malaysia - source: World Bank

Brief Analysis

The Malaysia-Iran-Israel Triangle Amid the Gaza War

Kuala Lumpur is once again displaying its willingness to facilitate Iran’s illicit activity, support Hamas, and amplify anti-Israel rhetoric well beyond what its neighbors have countenanced.

Apr 25, 2024

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Rebecca Redlich

Brief Analysis

The Palestinian Arena in the Shadow of the Iran-Israel Crisis

The crisis has given the United States, Israel, and their partners a unique opportunity to build an international coalition against Iran and show the Palestinians that the “resistance” camp is not their only viable path.

Apr 25, 2024

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Neomi Neumann
Devorah Margolin

◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East

Articles & Testimony

Will Israel Temper Its War on Iran’s Regional Proxies?

Israeli strikes on Hezbollah and other militias in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq have yielded visible benefits at times, but future operations may elicit a direct Iranian response.

Apr 24, 2024

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David Schenker

Iran Air passenger plane undergoing maintenance

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

A Better Plan for Sanctioning Iranian Airlines

Targeting Iran Air’s flights to Europe would help, but the regime’s illicit activities on the continent may simply be taken over by the IRGC-linked carrier Mahan Air unless further designations are issued.

Apr 23, 2024

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Babak Taghvaee

The container ship Jin Shun He (IMO 9144316) docked at the port of NEOM in Oxagon. Photo credit: Photo credit: @NEOMOxagon, posted on X (formerly Twitter), April 15, 2024, https://x.com/NEOMOxagon/status/1779799779230302424. .

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Amid Red Sea Crisis, Saudi Company Launches North Shipping Service

Riyadh’s aim to become a global logistics hub connecting three continents will face challenges if risks to southern Red Sea shipping persist at their current levels.

Apr 20, 2024

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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi

◆ Maritime Spotlight

President Joe Biden walks past flags of the member states at a G20 meeting - source: The White House

Brief Analysis

Coordinated Iran Sanctions Require Coordinated Enforcement

Following the attack on Israel, world leaders seek to build a coalition of the willing to hold Tehran accountable for its malign activities—though sanctions won’t have their intended effect unless partners cooperate on robust enforcement as well.

Apr 19, 2024

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Matthew Levitt

An Iranian man holds a newspaper depicting the April 14 attack on Israel.

Video

Brief Analysis

The Middle East's Perilous Moment: Policy Implications and Escalation Risks

Two former U.S. and Israeli officials join a security expert to examine Iran’s unprecedented attack, Israel’s potential response, and U.S. options to prevent the outbreak of full-scale regional war.

Apr 18, 2024

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Dana Stroul
Zohar Palti
Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

Russian-Iranian Cooperation and Threats to U.S. Interests

A former senior Pentagon official assesses how the growing alliance between the two regimes could create problems on multiple fronts, from exchanging know-how on U.S. defense technology to facilitating nuclear proliferation, sanctions evasion, and domestic oppression.

Apr 17, 2024

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Dana Stroul

The national flags of China and Iran fly in Tiananmen Square during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Beijing, China, February 14, 2023 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

China’s Response to Iran’s Attack Is an Opportunity for Washington

U.S. officials should remind their partners abroad that Beijing’s support for Tehran is jeopardizing regional stability.

Apr 16, 2024

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Grant Rumley
Rebecca Redlich

Lions of the Ougaidat Brigade leaders, Syria, 2023 cropped

Maps & Graphics

Articles & Testimony

Profile: Lions of the Ougaidat Brigade

A Syrian Arab tribal militia directly operated by Iran's IRGC and tasked with fighting the Kurdish-led SDF east of the Euphrates.

Apr 15, 2024

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Abdullah Hayek
Kyle Robertson

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Arab Tribal and Clan Forces

A newer unit of Arab militiamen in Syria, raised by pro-Assad figure Ibrahim al-Hifl to form an unbroken corridor of Iran-backed tribal fighters between Deir al-Zour and Aleppo.

Apr 15, 2024

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Abdullah Hayek
Kyle Robertson

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iraqi PMF Chief of Staff Commits to Fulfill Iranian Supreme Leader's Plans

Abu Fadak laid bare the limited extent to which his organization is under Prime Minister Sudani's sovereign control, instead identifying Iran's Ayatollah Khamenei as his commander-in-chief.

Apr 8, 2024

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Amir al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

A Sudanese protester against military rule

Brief Analysis

Curbing Outside Intervention in the Sudan War

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict are being challenged by U.S. partners and adversaries alike, including key Middle East players.

Apr 4, 2024

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Jonathan Campbell-James

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

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