Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militias Pivot Away from U.S. Targets, Toward Kurdistan and Turkish Bases

Attack metrics prove that Iran-backed groups currently see more profit in striking "near enemies" than American forces.

Oct 17, 2022

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Eric Feely

◆ Militia Spotlight

Fikra Forum

As Anti-Regime Protests Swell Across Iran, Ethnic Minorities Demand Freedom and Equality

In order to create more lasting changes, the current wave of protests in Iran must be inclusive of the demands and expectations of ethnic minorities.

Oct 14, 2022

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Rahim Hamid
Ruth Riegler

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Fikra Forum

The Demonstrations for Mahsa Amini: A Turning Point in Iran

Despite the Iranian regime’s efforts to suppress recent protests, they have quickly spread to every corner of the country, making this one of the most important events in Iran in more than four decades and suggesting this could be a turning point for the country's future.

Oct 7, 2022

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Ziryan Rojhelati

Iranian men use Instagram - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Social Media in Iran’s Protests: A New Public Sphere?

Apps like Clubhouse and Instagram have greatly broadened the people’s ability to exchange ideas and even criticize the regime, but authorities have simultaneously subverted, coopted, and silenced these platforms at will.

Oct 6, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Fikra Forum

Iran’s Dilemma in Managing Shiite Conflicts in Iraq

Iran has recently adopted a more hands-off approach in Iraqi politics, hoping that the internal fractures will eventually work in their favor.

Oct 6, 2022

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Firas Elias

Baquer Namazi, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen who had been imprisoned in Iran, shakes hands with an Omani official in Muscat - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

The Latest Chapter in Iran’s Hostage Diplomacy

U.S. policymakers should be careful about concluding that Tehran’s decision to relax restrictions on two detained American citizens has anything to do with the nuclear talks.

Oct 6, 2022

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Henry Rome

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Disinformation and the Zainab Isam al-Khazali Shooting

"Resistance" groups launched a coordinated and intentionally misleading anti-American media campaign to ease domestic pressure caused by the unrest in Iran.

Oct 5, 2022

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Smoke is seen at a Saudi oil facility in Abqaiq, 2019 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will a Sense of Revenge Spur Iran to Attack Saudi Arabia?

While the regime doubles down on its domestic crackdown, it has increased its threatening rhetoric abroad as well, potentially drawing U.S. assets into a new round of military escalation reminiscent of summer 2019.

Oct 4, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iraqi Militia Group Makes Credible New Threat Against the Gulf States

The facade group in question tends to follow through on its warnings, so its latest rhetoric about using developments in Yemen as cause for new attacks should be taken seriously.

Oct 3, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iran's Ali Karimi, wearing green wristbands at a 2010 World Cup qualifier - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Celebrities, the Clergy, and Succession: Wild Cards in Iran’s Protests

By targeting celebs and financially coopting the clergy, the regime has revealed a great deal about what it sees as its greatest vulnerabilities.

Sep 30, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Fikra Forum

The Captagon War: Smuggling on the Jordanian-Syrian Border

As drug smuggling increases across Jordan’s border with Syria, Jordanian authorities need to seek solutions in both the security and social spheres.

Sep 30, 2022

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Saud Al-Sharafat

Iranian morality police confront women in Tehran - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

How Iran’s Protests Differ from Past Movements

The unrest has shown that many young people are not only rejecting the regime, but also steering away from long-time actors such as the clergy, reformers, and dissident politicians inside and outside the country.

Sep 28, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Fikra Forum

Iran on the Threshold of Another Revolution

The most recent wave of protests in Iran appears more unified and determined, suggesting it may be the start of something much bigger.

Sep 28, 2022

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Shukriya Bradost

Articles & Testimony

Letting Iran Go Nuclear

Tehran's program continues to gallop ahead, and the United States is doing very little about it.

Sep 23, 2022

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Robert Satloff

Articles & Testimony

Regional Security Cooperation Partnerships in the Middle East

The Abraham Accords have substantially increased the region’s options for countering Iranian threats, but the past performance of Arab coalitions should make policymakers cautious about expecting too much from new alliances.

Sep 21, 2022

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David Schenker

Fikra Forum

Pragmatic Re-Balancing: the Saudi Dual Outreach to Israel and Iran

While the Middle East remains littered with flashpoints, Saudi Arabia is reaching out to Israel and Iran in an attempt to defuse simmering tensions and build consensus, with the Kingdom shifting from a confrontational to fence-mending approach.

Sep 20, 2022

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Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

SDR Allocations in the Middle East: Helpful, but No Silver Bullet

Various governments have made good use of last year’s unprecedented IMF allocation, but the Ukraine war, ongoing debt issues, and other economic problems are a reminder that the region cannot sidestep deeper reforms indefinitely.

Sep 20, 2022

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Jonah Shrock

The Iranian catamaran missile corvette Shahid Soleimani on its launch in 2022

Brief Analysis

New Iranian Warship Signals Longer Maritime Reach, More Aggressive Strategy

Although Tehran tends to exaggerate its naval achievements and blue-water capabilities, the heavy investments it has made in this sector are yielding regionally significant progress.

Sep 16, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran One Step Closer to SCO Membership

Assessing the real benefits—and limits—of joining the so-called “anti-NATO” can help policymakers better understand what Tehran, China, Russia, and other participants are getting out of their summits.

Sep 14, 2022

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Nicole Grajewski

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Al-Warithuun

Al-Warithuun is a "resistance" brand with a recurring connection to kinetic operations that are directed by Iran's Qods Force but intended to be deniable.

Sep 13, 2022

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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