Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Qatari leader Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani - source: Reuters

Gas Likely to Top Agenda of Qatar’s White House Visit

Originally planned as a thank-you for crucial assistance in last summer’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, the meeting will probably focus on Doha’s potential role in addressing the Ukraine crisis instead.

Jan 31, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

A Needed Warning for Yemen’s Rebels—and for Our Allies and Enemies Alike

Rarely has it been more important for Washington to show it will stand by a friend in response to an attack that could have resulted in many civilian casualties, including Americans.

Jan 24, 2022

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Dennis Ross

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Lionization of Esmail Qaani: Consolidation or Covering Embarrassment?

The Iranian general has never received such intense praise from the Iraqi "resistance," but it may just be his attempt to spin his recent disappointing visit.

Jan 24, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Portraits of Baha'i adherents arrested in Iran on display in Brazil - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Increased Persecution of the Bahai

Targeting the faith’s followers is a longstanding feature of the Islamic Republic but has been escalating of late.

Jan 21, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Brief Analysis

Houthi Strikes on UAE Open Another Front in Yemen War

As Emirati-aligned forces gain ground on the battlefield in Yemen, the Houthis are trying to raise the costs of Abu Dhabi’s involvement.

Jan 18, 2022

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Elana DeLozier

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muhandis Replaced by Not One Man, But Two?

Abu Fadak and Akram Kaabi seem to have inherited the PMF and "resistance" parts of the late militia leader's portfolio.

Jan 12, 2022

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Abu Fadak Tries to Split the Shrine Units

Recent moves by the senior PMF commander are seemingly aimed at sowing divisions among four key militias that do not answer to the so-called "resistance."

Jan 11, 2022

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Will the Ukraine Standoff Affect the Iran Nuclear Talks?

Some Western policymakers seem to believe that Russia can be helpful on Iran even as it threatens to attack Ukraine, but they’re missing the bigger picture.

Jan 11, 2022

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Militia with 23mm driving west outside IZ, May 26, 2021

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Making Sense of Militia Attacks in Iraq and Syria in Early 2022

The process of assuaging the militia support base was carefully stage-managed in the first week of the new year, with Iran and Nujaba setting the ground rules.

Jan 6, 2022

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Law Enforcement Shuffle Reflects Concern About Protests

The Supreme Leader and the IRGC are asserting more control over the task of monitoring and managing protest movements, creating yet another intelligence agency in the process.

Jan 5, 2022

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Amir Toumaj

Articles & Testimony

Solving Syria’s Crisis Starts with Sanctioning Iranian Oil

Instead of quietly greenlighting the Assad regime’s diplomatic rehabilitation, U.S. officials should escalate economic pressure on its Iranian enablers to regain leverage at the negotiating table.

Jan 3, 2022

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Andrew J. Tabler
Matthew Zweig

Brief Analysis

IRGC Conducts “Hybrid” Military Drills as Nuclear Talks Teeter

The timing of the exercise and the types of systems and tactics on display reveal much about Iran’s likely response to any uptick in foreign pressure.

Dec 22, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Fighter Aircraft Could Give Iran a Nuclear Delivery Option

Newly disclosed interviews indicate that a key Pakistani source of Iran’s nuclear know-how also figured out how to equip F-16s with nukes.

Dec 20, 2021

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Would Russia Ever Help Syria Break Away From Iranian Influence?

Israel seems to hope that differences between Moscow and Tehran will emerge with greater clarity as the fighting ends, but this view reflects wishful thinking more than reality.

Dec 16, 2021

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Israeli Prime Minister Bennett meets with the UAE's foreign minister in December 2021 - Source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Bennett Visit Shows the UAE Balancing Between Israeli Ties and Regional De-escalation

The meeting confirmed how eager both countries are to keep their economic progress humming along, but such cooperation could become complicated if concerns about Iran’s nuclear program come to a head.

Dec 16, 2021

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David Makovsky

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Next Budget Assumes No Nuclear Deal

The government seems to believe the economy will grow significantly even without sanctions relief or increased oil revenue.

Dec 14, 2021

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Patrick Clawson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Playground: Kinetic Operations Refocus on East Syria

Iran-backed groups seem to be directing their more dangerous attacks against coalition forces in Syria, not Iraq, and the trend could accelerate in early 2022.

Dec 14, 2021

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Arsenal Is Still Growing in Size, Reach, and Accuracy

Tehran has doubled down on the strategic importance of missile systems that can threaten U.S. forces and allies, even as its defensive justifications for such an arsenal ring more hollow than ever.

Dec 13, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Gulf Arab Summit Could Be Overshadowed by Israel-UAE Meeting

Normalization with Israel will be the elephant in the room at the Riyadh summit, though Iran diplomacy and persistent internal rifts bear close watching as well.

Dec 13, 2021

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Simon Henderson
Elana DeLozier

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The Militia Assassination Surge (Part 2): December Attacks

Desperate militias are now killing Shia civilians in mass-casualty bombings as they try to assassinate Iraqi investigators and intelligence personnel.

Dec 10, 2021

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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