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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

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Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Has a New Strategy to Survive Lebanon’s Financial Crisis
Unless Washington and its allies respond to the protestors’ legitimate demands for reform, the group will survive through measures such as expanding its smuggling activity, promoting its financial institutions, and selectively scapegoating corrupt politicians.
Mar 2, 2020
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
‘Fighters Without Borders’: Forecasting New Trends in Iran Threat Network Foreign Operations Tradecraft
To hide its fingerprints on future attacks against U.S. interests, the regime is focusing on its regional 'Shia Liberation Army' and potentially seeking to radicalize lone actors.
Feb 27, 2020
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  • Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East’s Future of Perpetual Pandemics
If outbreaks like the coronavirus shift from ‘black swan’ events to regular occurrences, globalization trends in the region may reverse, with sobering consequences.
Feb 26, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
In-Depth Reports
Reading Trump in Tehran
A week after Donald Trump was elected president in November 2016, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei played coy, remarking, “I have no judgment on the American election...[Both parties have been] naughty toward us.” Of course, his true reaction was far more complex. On one hand, he saw in the president-elect—who
Feb 23, 2020
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Predetermined Parliamentary Election
The vote will further consolidate Khamenei’s authoritarian rule, while the Majlis seems set to continue its decline in importance.
Feb 19, 2020
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Arab, Iranian, and Turkish Responses to President Trump’s Impeachment
A survey of how regional media outlets discussed the congressional impeachment process and its potential ramifications on the 2020 presidential election.
Feb 19, 2020
Brief Analysis
FATF’s Approach to Iran Should Mix Engagement with Pressure
Although it is time for the international standard-setter to act, returning Iran to the blacklist need not be seen as the end of FATF engagement with the country.
Feb 18, 2020
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  • Katherine Bauer
U.S. soldiers at an Iraqi base after a rocket attack by Iran-backed militias
Video
Brief Analysis
U.S. Strategy Toward Iran: Restoring Deterrence, Enabling Diplomacy
Three experts discuss how Washington can manage escalation and catalyze diplomacy while still using its military instruments to apply pressure.
Feb 14, 2020
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Kori Schake
  • David Deptula
Brief Analysis
Establishing a Response Ratio for Iranian and Proxy Attacks
Enhancing deterrence and protecting Americans in Iraq and Syria requires a more formalized system for rationing out retaliatory strikes at the proper intensity, time, and place.
Feb 13, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The UN Exposes Houthi Reliance on Iranian Weapons
In addition to dispelling any lingering notion that last year’s Aramco attack came from Yemen, the report documents Iran’s efforts to help the rebels acquire advanced missiles, weapons components, and training.
Feb 13, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Centering Iraq Policy on Human Rights and Fair Elections
The surest way to counter Iran’s malign influence is to proactively focus on human rights issues that the new prime minister can actually affect, such as organizing free elections and preventing further violence against protestors.
Feb 4, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Video
Brief Analysis
Shia Militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Post-Soleimani
Will the various regional militias once controlled by Qasem Soleimani continue to take sometimes-unwanted direction from Tehran after his death? Read or watch a spirited conversation with three experts.
Jan 30, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
  • Phillip Smyth
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
Soleimani Is Dead: The Road Ahead for Iranian-Backed Militias in Iraq
Iraqis have expressed broad political, religious, and public support for checking the militias more quickly, so the U.S. government should take several steps toward that end.
Jan 27, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Iranian Succession and the Impact of Soleimani’s Death
The general’s peerless domestic stature would have served a crucial mediatory role during the eventual transition to Khamenei’s successor, so his death brings significant uncertainty to that process.
Jan 23, 2020
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
The New Iranian General to Watch
The regime has promoted a hardened veteran of the Lebanon front, raising questions about the IRGC’s next steps following Soleimani's death.
Jan 23, 2020
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Iranian rockets and flag
Brief Analysis
Lifting the Arms Restrictions on Iran: What Will and Won’t Change
UN limits on Iranian weapons transactions will expire in a few short months, and even snapback sanctions may be insufficient to prevent proliferation of dangerous arms to and from the regime.
Jan 23, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Who Is Mohammad Hossein-Zadeh Hejazi, the New Deputy Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?
The general’s background includes often-buried links to the pre-revolutionary MEK, along with a sobering record of transforming the Basij into a fine-tuned engine of domestic repression and organized vigilantism.
Jan 22, 2020
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  • Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
Expediting Evidence of Iranian Attacks: The Aramco Case
Internal components that are common across Iran’s illicit weapons transfers and domestic manufacturing industry can help investigators link the regime to attacks in the region.
Jan 21, 2020
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  • Tim Michetti
Brief Analysis
Behind Rouhani’s Uranium Enrichment Claim
His troubling numbers could be accurate given Iran’s past JCPOA violations and large number of operational centrifuges.
Jan 17, 2020
◆
  • Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
Europe Is Creating an Opportunity for Iran Talks, and Washington Should Take It
By triggering the nuclear deal’s dispute resolution mechanism, Britain, France, and Germany are opening diplomatic space that could help the United States and Iran return to the negotiating table.
Jan 17, 2020
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  • Charles Thépaut
  • Elana DeLozier

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