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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

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AAH leader

Maps & Graphics

Profile: Asaib Ahl al-Haq

Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Asaib Ahl al-Haq is a major Iraqi armed group that identifies as part of Iran's axis of resistance but stubbornly maintains a degree of independence, forming numerous cells to conduct kinetic, media, and social operations, some bankrolled by the Iraqi state.

Michael Knights

U.S. and Iranian flags

Articles & Testimony

For Diplomacy to Work, Iran Must Understand That It Cannot Overplay Its Hand

Although the Biden administration strongly favors a diplomatic path to ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon, it needs to show that it will exercise other options if Tehran makes a viable deal impossible.

Dennis Ross

Fatemyoun squad

Maps & Graphics

Profile: Fatemiyoun Electronic Squad

Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Fatemiyoun Electronic Squad is a facade group that undertakes cyberattacks on behalf of Kataib Hezbollah, in close collaboration with other affiliates.

Hamdi Malik

Unit 10K img

Maps & Graphics

Profile: Unit 10,000

Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Unit 10,000 is Kataib Hezbollah's premier online facade group, specializing in the publication of resistance propaganda and the development of "electronic armies" capable of hacking, information operations, and open-source intelligence gathering.

Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik

Maps & Graphics

Rijal Allah Claims the Baghdad Airport Attack

Militia Spotlight

A new online facade group has undermined Kataib Hezbollah's conspiracy-laden narrative blaming the April 22 rocket strike on Iraqi Kurds.

Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

U.S. and Iranian flags

Articles & Testimony

Iran Moves Closer to a Diplomatic Breakthrough That May Upset Israel

A bevy of Israeli security officials will soon visit Washington against a backdrop of Vienna talks, Saudi engagement with Tehran, and continued nuclear moves.

Simon Henderson

Russian soldiers in Syria

Articles & Testimony

Russia in the Middle East: A Source of Stability or a Pot-Stirrer?

If Washington continues to deprioritize the Middle East, Russia will accelerate its convergence with Iran and essentially determine Syria’s future, which could result in a more explicit and dangerous nexus between these actors.

Anna Borshchevskaya

Qods Force deputy commander Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh

Who Is Mohammad Reza Fallahzadeh, the New Deputy Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?

A closer look at the general’s service in Syria, his political and military connections, and his potential influence on how the Qods Force carries out future operations abroad.

Ali Alfoneh

Maps & Graphics

Profile: Usbat al-Thaireen

Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Usbat al-Thaireen is the earliest known facade group employed to veil Kataib Hezbollah's culpability in anti-coalition operations, and its eventual shutdown may provide an important case study of such a group's complete life cycle.

Crispin Smith
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Game Plan for Iraq’s Militias

Tehran still regards the full withdrawal of U.S. forces as its ultimate goal, and its Iraqi proxies are more than happy to use escalation for that purpose whenever they can.

Hamdi Malik

A jockey and horse at a race in Iran

Iran’s Underground Las Vegas

From pop stars to porn stars to bitcoins, the rise of online gambling sites in Iran is raising eyebrows—as well as questions about whether the IRGC and other regime organs are benefitting from the scandalous new industry.

Arash Aalaei

Articles & Testimony

Bibi “Natanzyahu” Plays Bad Cop on Iran

Washington’s conspicuous silence over the nuclear sabotage at Natanz no doubt stems from the fact that Israel has bought more time for negotiations.

David Pollock

Kokuka Courageous tanker, Gulf of Oman

In-Depth Reports

Deterring Iran in the Gray Zone Insights from Four Decades of Conflict

The United States has repeatedly failed to understand the unique requirements of gray zone deterrence. A U.S. strategy would not only facilitate more successful diplomacy with Tehran but also enhance efforts to counter other actors such as China and Russia.

Michael Eisenstadt

Iranian sailors on board a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran and Israel’s Undeclared War at Sea (Part 2): The Potential for Military Escalation

Although both sides have sought to keep their tit-for-tat maritime attacks under control, they pose a substantial risk of miscalculation and escalation that could jeopardize international shipping.

Farzin Nadimi

An Iraqi member of a Shia PMF militia

Articles & Testimony

Team of Legal Gladiators? Iraqi Militias’ Tortured Relationship with Law

Iran-backed armed groups hate being exposed as criminals in the eyes of a populace that cares deeply about rule of law, so they have turned Iraq’s legal sector into a battlespace.

Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

Articles & Testimony

‘Suspicious’ Blackout at Iranian Nuclear Site Almost Certain to Prompt Retaliation

Israel was silent the last time there was a mysterious explosion at Natanz, but this time Iran is not only being embarrassed, it is being humiliated.

Simon Henderson

Sabereen cartoon

Maps & Graphics

Profile: Sabereen News

Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Sabereen News is the main media network for all resistance factions in Iraq, but it quietly keeps a unique connection to Asaib Ahl al-Haq.

Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh

China’s Foreign Minister Tours the Middle East: Outcomes and Implications

The trip echoed Beijing’s strategy of stringing together initiatives that seem insubstantial on their own but cumulatively threaten to undermine U.S. and regional interests.

Ilari Papa

RA img

Maps & Graphics

Profile: Raba Allah

Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Raba Allah is the "mothership" for vigilante and counter-protestor groups developed by the Kataib Hezbollah network.

Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

Will Khamenei’s Son Play a Role in Iranian Succession?

Revived rumors about Mojtaba Khamenei’s activities inside the regime provide another lens through which to view the complex dynamics that will drive the eventual succession process.

Wilfried Buchta

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