Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

The Iran Deal’s October Sunsets: Sanctions Without Snapback

Facing the imminent expiration of UN sanctions but unwilling to trigger “snapback,” the EU and Britain should unilaterally extend some of their own restrictions on Tehran.

Jul 28, 2023

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Henry Rome
Louis Dugit-Gros

May 2023 unveiling ceremony for Iran's Khoramshahr ballistic missile

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

The Next Generation of Iranian Ballistic Missiles:

Technical Advances, Strategic Objectives, and Potential Western Responses

Amid revived nuclear talks with the United States, Iran finally debuted its vaunted Fattah “hypersonic missile”—just after test-launching an improved large-payload MRBM—in a clear bid to demonstrate conventional military deterrence capability.

Jul 25, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

A production still from the movie Oppenheimer, featuring actor Cillian Murphy - source: Universal

Articles & Testimony

The Science Behind the Drama of ‘Oppenheimer’

Iran’s potential push for a nuclear device and the region’s broader proliferation challenges cast a shadow over the new summer blockbuster.

Jul 24, 2023

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Risks of Maritime Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz

If the United States does not accompany its military deterrent efforts with strong diplomatic signals, the current cycle of ship seizures and Iranian retaliatory measures could spiral into something resembling the 1980s Tanker War.

Jul 21, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Iraq’s Power Problem (Part 2): Implications of the New Oil-for-Gas Deal with Iran

Baghdad hopes to avoid power cuts, political turmoil, and U.S. sanctions by striking a barter agreement with Tehran, but the deal raises many questions.

Jul 19, 2023

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Bilal Wahab
Dennis Ross

Thumbnail image representing an infographic illustrating the uranium enrichment process

Maps & Graphics

Articles & Testimony

Infographic: A Visual Guide to Understanding the Uranium Enrichment Process

This infographic is based on the Washington Institute’s 2015 nuclear glossary, a detailed guide that provides summaries of technical terms relating to Iran’s nuclear progress.

Jul 18, 2023

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Shaina Katz

Photo of an oil facility in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Brief Analysis

Iraq’s Power Problem (Part 1): Persistent Financial and Technical Challenges

Diversifying Iraq’s energy supplies won’t mean much if its power infrastructure is not rehabilitated, and the skewed cost-revenue ratio at the Ministry of Electricity is unsustainable.

Jul 17, 2023

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Noam Raydan

Khamenei present day, underneath: as a youth, with clerics, with military

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

The Regent of Allah:

Ali Khamenei's Political Evolution in Iran

The authoritarian infrastructure honed over decades by the Supreme Leader is designed to outlast his time in office.

Jul 14, 2023

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Mehdi Khalaji

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Infighting Between Northern Hashd Units Requires IRGC-QF Mediation

Iran's senior Revolutionary Guard operator in Kirkuk and religious-political leader Ammar al-Hakim were recently brought in to mediate between feuding state-paid militias.

Jul 6, 2023

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Michael Knights
Amir al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iranian Reactions to the Wagner Standoff in Russia

Iranian officials are keenly aware that Putin’s crisis parallels their own vulnerabilities, so they will likely step up their efforts to cement the bilateral security relationship and obtain Russian weapons and technology.

Jun 28, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

A New Iran Nuclear Deal Might Be on the Horizon

Washington can still avoid war, but not unless it balances blandishments and rewards with credible threats.

Jun 23, 2023

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Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

How Israel Lost the Syrian Civil War

As part of its strategic blueprint against Israel, Tehran is prepared to pay a steep price to continue consolidating its military presence in Syria, and Arab normalization with Assad will not change that trend in the least.

Jun 2023

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Ehud Yaari

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Arming the Revolution:

Trends in Iranian Defense Spending, 2013–23

A close analysis suggests the United States must adopt a broader strategy to counter Iran’s military ambitions alongside its nuclear ones.

Jun 14, 2023

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Henry Rome

Brief Analysis

Khamenei’s Nuclear Balancing Act

In line with his tendency to keep all options open when discussing nuclear negotiations, his latest speech gave only a yellow light to a potential deal.

Jun 13, 2023

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Omer Carmi

Salman Rushdie, attacker Hadi Matar, cell phone, Qasem Soleimani

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Is Iran Looking to Inspire Shia Homegrown Violent Extremist Attacks?

Amid a social media space rife with inflammatory content, two attacks last year showcased the willingness of Iran-inspired perpetrators to act.

Jun 12, 2023

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Moustafa Ayad
Matthew Levitt

A sign and mural in Tehran promote the Fatteh missile and threaten Israel with the slogan "400 Seconds to Tel Aviv" - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Biden’s Iran Gamble

The administration is essentially trying to kick the can down the road in order to avoid worse scenarios, but this approach may backfire without firmer steps to slow Iran’s nuclear progress in the meantime.

Jun 9, 2023

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Eric Brewer
Henry Rome

Articles & Testimony

Washington Keeps a Watchful Eye as the PMF Consolidates Its Dominance in Iraq

The Biden administration’s low-key, patient approach with Prime Minister Sudani has produced some positive results, but the lesson of Hezbollah and the Houthis is that Iranian proxies tend to cement their grip over a state when left unchecked.

Jun 8, 2023

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David Schenker

Articles & Testimony

Iraq Is Quietly Falling Apart

While Washington focuses on great power competition, Iran’s proxies have seized power in Baghdad and are gutting the state.

Jun 5, 2023

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Michael Knights

Iranian military leaders Ali Akbar Ahmadian and Qasem Suleimani - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran’s National Security Council Shuffle Signals Business as Usual

The latest change followed the normal timeline for such appointments, and the new council secretary is a demonstrated loyalist who will presumably toe the Supreme Leader’s uncompromising line.

May 24, 2023

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Farzin Nadimi

Video

Brief Analysis

America's Shifting Iran Policy: From George W. Bush to the Present

Watch as an expert panel assesses the full sweep of U.S. policy toward Iran in the twenty-first century across the Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations.

May 18, 2023

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Elliott Abrams
Dennis Ross
Michael Singh

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

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