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سوریه

Policy Analysis on سوریه

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As Syria Crumbles, Only Iran Is a Sure Winner
A discussion of Syria's Sykes-Picot origins, the recent U.S.-Russia de-escalation deal, and the Sunni-Shia contest in the region.
۲۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Arsal: The Last Hurdle to Hezbollah's Safe Zone
Absent vigorous international complaints, Hezbollah will force Syrian refugees out of eastern Lebanon to face certain persecution from the Assad regime.
۲۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
What to Expect From the State Department's Annual Counterterrorism Report
Areas of focus will likely include a damaged but still dangerous Islamic State, a regrouping al-Qaeda, and the wide network fielded by Iran and its proxy Hezbollah.
۱۸ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Katherine Bauer
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Turkey Can Ally with Syria's Kurds Someday
Most Kurds are now seeking rights in their respective countries, while downplaying the pan-Kurdish dream, giving Turkey more room to separate the PYD from the PKK instead of lumping them together.
۱۸ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
The Ceasefire and U.S. Interests on the Jordan-Syria Border
By setting limits on Iranian deployments in southern Syria, Washington could insulate Jordan from problems on the border and encourage Iranian caution in the east, potentially decreasing the likelihood there of a U.S.-Iran clash.
۱۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • David Schenker
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
The Caliphate Project in Iraq Post-Mosul
Destroying the vestiges of IS governance will not eliminate the group -- which will continue to pose an insurgent and terrorist threat -- but it will remove any arguments the jihadists might be inclined to make about the near-term viability of their state.
۱۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
An Opening for the Syrian Regime in Deir al-Zour
Events on the ground are fluid in the eastern Syrian city and province, but dynamics suggest Syrian forces and their backers will prevail over the Islamic State and U.S.-supported fighters.
۱۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Articles & Testimony
Why Latest Syria Ceasefire Is Exactly What Putin Wanted
As long as Putin keeps control of the narrative in Syria, he can forestall a resolution that compromises Russian interests.
۱۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
A Half-Million Syrian Returnees? A Look Behind the Numbers
Closer examination reveals that far more refugees are leaving Syria than coming home and that security and corruption represent major obstacles to their return.
۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Trump in a Meeting with Putin
Brief Analysis
The Trump-Putin Sideline and the Syria Conflict
Whatever the two leaders discuss at the G20 summit, the Trump administration must work urgently to develop a new Syria strategy that articulates a clear vision for the country's future and the U.S. readiness to protect it.
۶ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Nikolay Kozhanov
Brief Analysis
Managing Escalation Dynamics with Iran in Syria -- and Beyond
Given recent frictions, the United States should take a number of steps to reduce the potential for escalation with Tehran and to avoid a broader conflict.
۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
In-Depth Reports
How al-Qaeda Survived Drones, Uprisings, and the Islamic State
Over the past eight years, al-Qaeda's fortunes have ebbed and flowed. Drones, uprisings, and a challenge from the Islamic State have forced the core al-Qaeda organization—historically based in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region—and its various branches to adapt and migrate outward. In this new Policy Focus, Washington Institute fellow Aaron Y. Zelin
۲۸ ژوئن ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
The Fight for the Northern Iraq-Syria Border
At the symbolic level, Iran and its proxies are achieving great success in planting their flags along this contested frontier, but real control will entail the much tougher task of establishing permanent bases and logistical arrangements.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Iran Missile Strikes Reveal Potential Military Weaknesses
The retaliatory attacks against alleged Islamic State facilities in eastern Syria apparently failed to hit any of their intended targets, undermining Iranian deterrence and raising questions about the effectiveness of Iran's missile force.
۲۲ ژوئن ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
What's Behind Moscow's Latest Threats in Syria
Bluster from the Kremlin should not be interpreted to mean Putin wants a direct military confrontation with the United States.
۲۱ ژوئن ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Trump Is on a Collision Course with Iran
The United States cannot defeat the Islamic State without first reckoning with Iran's nefarious role in Syria.
۲۰ ژوئن ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
A New Battlespace in Syria: Prospects for U.S. Policy
Iran-led forces present arguably the greatest future threat to U.S. military personnel and overall interests in Syria, and therefore must be the centerpiece of a broader strategy addressing the conflict.
۲۰ ژوئن ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Nader Uskowi
Articles & Testimony
Russia's Strategic Objectives in the Middle East and North Africa
The Institute's leading Russia expert outlines the best means of tempering Moscow's influence in the region, recommending a more active U.S. military and diplomatic role while explaining why Putin will never be a reliable partner there.
۱۵ ژوئن ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah's Redeployment in Syria: Potential Confrontations
If Washington fails to press Russia diplomatically and raise the military costs on Hezbollah, a wider confrontation may erupt between U.S. and Iranian proxies in Syria.
۱۳ ژوئن ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Rojava's Future: Four Models Explained
As Washington considers its next steps in northern Syria, it will need to weigh the geostrategic consequences of backing local Kurdish forces whose objectives may align or conflict with those of Russia, Iran, and various other actors.
۵ ژوئن ۲۰۱۷
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay

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