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All Policy Analysis by Hanin Ghaddar
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Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia's War on Lebanon
In seeking to combat Iranian influence, Riyadh could undermine an already vulnerable Lebanese economy and threaten the country's tenuous calm.
۱۳ نوامبر ۲۰۱۷
◆
Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Lebanon's Prime Minister Resigns: What's Next?
Hariri's announcement could make Hezbollah and its Iranian patron more vulnerable to international pressure, particularly if the upcoming parliamentary elections do not go their way.
۶ نوامبر ۲۰۱۷
◆
Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Shia Unrest in Hezbollah's Beirut Stronghold
The group is hoping to rein in rampant social problems by allowing government authorities to crack down on its poorest constituents, but the plan could backfire amid unprecedented anti-Hezbollah riots.
۳۰ اکتبر ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Are Shia Dynamics in Iraq and Lebanon Turning Against Iran?
If Iraqi Shia reject Tehran's call for a unified bloc in next year's elections, it could have welcome implications for the future of Iranian influence in Baghdad -- and Beirut.
۵ اکتبر ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
A War with Hizbollah Would Essentially Mean War with Iran This Time Around
Conflict with Israel might be inevitable, but the context has become more complicated than ever for both sides.
۴ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Arsal: The Last Hurdle to Hezbollah's Safe Zone
Absent vigorous international complaints, Hezbollah will force Syrian refugees out of eastern Lebanon to face certain persecution from the Assad regime.
۲۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
The Ceasefire and U.S. Interests on the Jordan-Syria Border
By setting limits on Iranian deployments in southern Syria, Washington could insulate Jordan from problems on the border and encourage Iranian caution in the east, potentially decreasing the likelihood there of a U.S.-Iran clash.
۱۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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David Schenker
Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah's Redeployment in Syria: Potential Confrontations
If Washington fails to press Russia diplomatically and raise the military costs on Hezbollah, a wider confrontation may erupt between U.S. and Iranian proxies in Syria.
۱۳ ژوئن ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
To Stop the New Hezbollah, Think Regionally
Despite setbacks in Syria, and anxieties over a potential future conflict with Israel, the group has substantially widened its reach in recent years.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
۲۵ مارس ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Sarah Feuer
Brief Analysis
Will Morocco Extradite a Hezbollah Financier to the United States?
Last week's arrest highlighted the kingdom's role as a key counterterrorism partner, and following through on the U.S. extradition request could deliver a significant blow to Hezbollah's reputation and finances.
۲۳ مارس ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Sarah Feuer
Articles & Testimony
Perceiving the Shia Dimension of Terrorism
By providing more effective governance and core services, Middle Eastern officials can prevent defeated terrorist groups from reemerging, but such efforts are largely futile without sustained U.S. and European military support.
۲۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Losing Its Luster Under Soleimani
Many Hezbollah fighters believe their Iranian supervisor in Syria views them as easily replaceable Arab cannon fodder, and the resultant tension is generating disillusionment about Tehran's claims of pan-Shiite unity.
۲۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
The Latest Ceasefire Will Not Change Hezbollah's Role in Syria
Iran and Russia may find a way to push past their strategic differences and make the ceasefire work, but it will be much more difficult to forge agreements on Syria's other intractable issues at the upcoming peace conference.
۶ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
What's at Stake for Lebanon's New Government?
The heavy presence of pro-Iranian and pro-Syrian ministers is troubling, but Hariri and his allies can still preserve Lebanon's sovereignty by pushing for a balanced electoral law and a timely parliamentary ballot.
۲۱ دسامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
Stop Calling the Syrian Conflict a 'Civil War.' It's Not.
Doing so gives the Assad regime a veneer of legitimacy and has a serious impact on international accountability.
۱۴ دسامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Iran May Be Using Iraq and Syria as a Bridge to Lebanon
While liberating territory from the Islamic State is vital, the consequences of ceding portions of Iraq and Syria to de facto Iranian control could be just as dire as leaving them in jihadist hands.
۲۳ نوامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Economic Alternatives Could Help Split Shiites From Hezbollah
According to young Shiite interviewees, two incentives could avert an uncertain journey to the Syrian battlefield: jobs and loans.
۱۸ اکتبر ۲۰۱۶
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Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah's Women Aren't Happy
As their sons and 'temporary husbands' are ripped from them to fight a proxy war in Syria, grieving mothers and brides are compensated with empty promises, poverty, and threats, heightening communal frustrations to the point of explosion.
۱۲ اکتبر ۲۰۱۶
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Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Iran's 'Useful Syria' Is Practically Complete
Helping the Assad regime establish full control in Damascus is only one part of Iran's plan to create a regional Shiite crescent, and any ceasefire plan that furthers such goals could spark wider sectarian conflict.
۸ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Hanin Ghaddar
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