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Brief Analysis
Security Cooperation in a Changed Region: How to Advance the U.S.-GCC Defense Working Groups
From aligning weapons acquisition strategies and improving intelligence sharing to getting the diplomatic framing right, U.S. officials can do more to advance regional air defense and maritime security through this week’s working groups and beyond.
May 21, 2024
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Dana Stroul
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Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Articles & Testimony
Can Hamas Be Defeated?
Although the group’s ideology will persist, the tools used to advance it can be effectively constrained through measures that turn a major threat into a marginal irritant.
May 21, 2024
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Ghaith al-Omari
Articles & Testimony
The Dangers of an Ungovernable Gaza
As the conditions for long-term lawlessness and violence begin to take root, a former Pentagon official details the urgent steps Washington and its partners should take to prepare for the postwar “golden hour.”
May 20, 2024
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Dana Stroul
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Untangling the UN’s Gaza Fatality Data
A major shift in the death toll for women and children points to deeper problems in the way OCHA is relaying data and handling questionable sources.
May 17, 2024
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Gabriel Epstein
Articles & Testimony
Some Big Decisions: What It Will Take to Repair Israel-US Ties
The two allies are unlikely to agree on everything, but they need to iron out their differences given how much is at stake.
May 17, 2024
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David Makovsky
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Latest Houthi Maritime Threats
Even increased aggressive activity in the Indian Ocean will be unlikely to seriously disrupt maritime traffic and global trade—but vessels calling on Israeli ports will need to take extra precautions.
May 16, 2024
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Noam Raydan
Farzin Nadimi
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Maritime Spotlight
Brief Analysis
How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations
The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.
May 16, 2024
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Hanin Ghaddar
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Anti-Israel Surge by Iraqi Militants: Metrics and Trends
Although relatively few drones or missiles seem to make it to Israel, launches are steadily increasing, potentially inviting overt retaliation inside Iraq.
May 15, 2024
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Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
A Year of Arab Engagement with Assad Has Failed
The “carrots” approach only emboldened the regime to increase its smuggling of Captagon and weapons, but Caesar sanctions remain a potent stick.
May 15, 2024
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Andrew J. Tabler
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Brussels Conference on Supporting Syria: Complex Issues Surrounding "Early Recovery"
Alignment between recovery efforts and the international coalition requires a comprehensive approach that prioritizes security, economic stabilization, and social cohesion.
May 15, 2024
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Ibrahim Murad
Brief Analysis
An Israel-Lebanon Agreement May Not Be Worth the Costs
The lesson from past deals involving Hezbollah is clear: the group will try to pocket any U.S. concessions on the presidency and other issues while simply jettisoning whatever border commitments it may make in return.
May 14, 2024
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
The Arab Approach to Mediation—Reshaping Diplomacy in a Multipolar World
Given their unique cultural concepts and major economic and political clout, the Gulf states are poised to play an even more significant role in future peace and security initiatives.
Spring 2024
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Nickolay Mladenov
Articles & Testimony
On Israel, Biden Is No Reagan
Skewed historical comparisons do not change the fact that the president’s arms restrictions will put Israel in greater danger.
May 10, 2024
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Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
What Hamas Wants in Postwar Gaza: The Power to Fight Without the Burden of Governing
The group is following Hezbollah’s playbook to a tee: first, secure victory simply by surviving, then take hold of the postwar governance structure while retaining its independent fighting force.
May 10, 2024
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Why and How to Walk Back Biden’s Suspension of Weapons Delivery to Israel
The president may have inadvertently created a cordon of immunity around Hamas in Rafah, decreased pressure on the group’s leaders to accept a cease-fire, and raised doubts among Arab partners.
May 10, 2024
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
U.S. Returnees from Syria Reveal Much About the Repatriation Challenge
The latest U.S. repatriation is an important model for the international community to follow, but much work still needs to be done on resolving the precarious detainee dilemma before the situation in northeast Syria deteriorates further.
May 9, 2024
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Devorah Margolin
Brief Analysis
Will Turkey Cut Ties with Israel?
Although the latest rift is more than rhetorical, Ankara is unlikely to sever ties completely—unless Israel blocks it from participating in Gaza’s reconstruction.
May 8, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraq’s Missed Development Pathway Highlights the Necessity of Unpopular Economic Reforms
Institutional limitations, fiscal challenges, endemic corruption, and governance shortcomings present formidable barriers to developmental pursuits.
May 8, 2024
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Mohammed Hussein
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Protecting Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
Given the breakdown of the Lebanese state, Arab countries' normalization with Assad, and the fragmentation of the Syrian opposition, it seems that the United States can step in to play a pivotal role in protecting Syrian refugees facing persecution.
May 8, 2024
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Ammar Musarea
Brief Analysis
How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Iran’s Attack?
Despite the success of the allied response on April 13, Iran’s attack calls into question the sustainability of the current approach, suggesting that policymakers should rethink military procurement, force posture, and deterrence in the Middle East.
May 6, 2024
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Andrew G. Clemmensen
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Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
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