Four Things to Watch in Shipping and Energy If Middle East Conflict Resumes

Despite ongoing efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, there is growing anticipation of renewed fighting between Iran, the United States, and Israel. If another round of intense strikes takes place in the next weeks, the repercussions will once again be felt across the region’s energy and shipping sectors. This would come as some transits have been gradually recovering, and regional exporters are adapting to an extremely challenging security situation by relying on workarounds and new ways of trading. These two sectors have been at the heart of the eight-month war and key targets for Iran as it seeks to maintain pressure on regional and international markets. Crude oil flows have gradually recovered in recent months. Yet while attention has focused overwhelmingly on crude, it’s crucial to remember that flows of other commodities, such as liquefied natural gas and refined products, are recovering slowly. Additional challenges could emerge in the event of another round of escalation. The following shows the gradual recovery in some energy flows out of the region and highlights four developments to watch if fighting resumes...

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