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Articles & Testimony
Arab AKPs in the Making?
Can Turkey's experience in the past decade under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government -- blending democracy, close ties with the West, a "Muslim" foreign policy, capitalism and Islamism -- be copied by Arabs, as many claim? Probably not -- except for Tunisia. Although rooted in Turkey's Islamist movement
۲۳ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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David Pollock
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
No Brothers in Arms in Egypt
In late May, Egypt will ostensibly hold its first open presidential elections in nearly six decades. But the Muslim Brotherhood suspects treachery. This past Tuesday's disqualification of ten presidential candidates, including Brotherhood leader Khairat al-Shater, has convinced the group that the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which has
۲۰ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Eric Trager
Brief Analysis
Russia's Position on Iran's Nuclear Program
In the April 14 talks in Istanbul, Russia demonstrated once again that it could be a team player. But Moscow's cooperative front with the other members of the P5+1 group originates not in a pure desire to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue but rather in a bid to gain leverage
۱۹ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Nikolay Kozhanov
Brief Analysis
Assad Must Be Forced to Allow Peaceful Assembly
Videos and reports from Syria over the past week show that Bashar al-Assad's forces continue to violate the ceasefire outlined by UN special representative Kofi Annan on April 12. The regime has neither ended its use of heavy weapons in population centers nor -- an additional obligation -- pulled back
۱۸ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Could the Gulf States Intervene in Syria?
The participation of Qatar and the United Arab Emirates in the Libyan conflict demonstrated the Gulf Cooperation Council's activism and capability. In recent months, therefore, speculation has focused on possible GCC intervention in the Syrian civil war. On February 27, Qatari prime minister Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani told the Friends
۱۷ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
A Crisis of Confidence
From failing European economies to staggering murder rates in Central America, there's no shortage of crises on the agenda as the International Monetary Fund holds its annual spring meeting in Washington this week. Of all the problems within the IMF's purview, however, the ongoing economic deterioration in Egypt may be
۱۷ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Are Syrian Alawites and Turkish Alevis the Same?
Could Turkey really go to war against Syria? If it were to do so, Ankara would need to find a way to deal with the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict in Syria and its potential ramifications inside Turkey. The regime of Bashar al-Assad has enjoyed overwhelming support among Syria's
۱۷ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Back from the Threshold: The Last Chance for Diplomacy to Stop Iran
In this timely and detailed paper, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog (IDF, Ret.) proposes ways to maximise the chances of success in P5+1 talks to move the Iranians back from their nuclear threshold capacity. Key Points Strong evidence suggests that Iran's nuclear programme is intended to actually construct nuclear weapons, not
۱۷ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Michael Herzog
Brief Analysis
Assad Continues Violent Attacks on the Opposition
Data from one of the key Syrian opposition groups, the Local Coordination Committees (LCC), shows a persistent pattern of violent, armed regime actions against the people despite the ceasefire that supposedly went into force last week ( view the Syria Incident Database). The regime has effectively continued its struggle against
۱۷ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Will Syria's Sectarian Divisions Spill Over into Turkey?
Should the conflict in Syria turn Sunni on Alawite, Turkish Alevis may find themselves actively opposing any intervention organized by their own government. Observers of the growing humanitarian crisis in Syria are increasingly worried that the conflict will turn into sectarian struggle, and with good reason: the Assad regime has
۱۶ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Russian Energy Strategy Makes Partners of Rivals
On April 2-4, a high-ranking delegation from Islamabad visited Moscow to discuss whether Russian energy giant Gazprom will help construct the ambitious gas pipeline between Pakistan and Iran. Although the outcome of the talks is still unknown, analysts suggest that the Russian company's involvement in the project would align perfectly
۱۶ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Nikolay Kozhanov
Articles & Testimony
Taking Exception: Abu Zubaida's Clear Ties to al-Qaeda
In her March 29 op-ed, "Why not try Abu Zubaida?," lawyer Amanda L. Jacobsen argued that the reason the federal government has yet to charge her client after 10 years in U.S. custody is simple: "The government got it wrong." The government based its "hyperbolic assertions" about Abu Zubaida on
۱۶ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Matthew Levitt
Video
Brief Analysis
The Free Syrian Army: A Military Assessment
On April 10, 2012, Jeffrey White and Andrew Exum addressed a Policy Forum at The Washington Institute. Mr. White, a defense fellow at the Institute, previously completed a thirty-four-year career with the Defense Intelligence Agency, serving in a wide variety of senior analytical and leadership positions. Mr. Exum, a senior
۱۳ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Jeffrey White
Andrew Exum
Articles & Testimony
Don't Throw Iran's Democrats under the Bus
In pursuing a nuclear deal with Tehran, Obama is betting against the future. You wouldn't know it from following the news, but the nuclear impasse is not the only issue dividing Iran and the United States. In his latest message to the Iranian people on the occasion of their festival
۱۳ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Patrick Clawson
Iraq Update: An Interview
This interview was conducted for Global Politics by Robert Tollast, a graduate of Royal Holloway University of London who has interviewed various diplomats for Small Wars Journal . In March, the Iraqi government imposed tight security restrictions on Baghdad to host the Arab League summit, the first to be held
۱۳ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
How Iran and Turkey See Each Other
Welcome to the new Middle East, which increasingly looks too small to accommodate both Turkey and Iran. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting Riyadh on Friday. The Syrian crisis will dominate the agenda in Riyadh, and Iran will scrutinize every statement made by Erdogan and his Saudi hosts
۱۳ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Soner Cagaptay
Alex Vatanka
Should We Fear Mideast Nuclear Proliferation?
If Iran gets nuclear weapons, will other Middle East states want them too? In a bloggingheads.tv conversation, Matt Duss and Michael Singh explore the issues.
۱۳ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Assad's Secretive Cyber Force
Cyber bullets are bullets nonetheless.
۱۲ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
Brief Analysis
Bahrain on the Brink Jeopardizes U.S. Interests in the Gulf
The ethnic strife between majority Shiites and the ruling Sunni al-Khalifa family in Bahrain is worsening, with a growing risk that the U.S. naval base there could become contentious.
۱۲ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Changed Prospects for Turkish Military Intervention in Syria
Several recent developments have put the possibility of military action in Syria on Turkey's agenda. On April 9, Syrian forces opened fire at a refugee camp on the Turkish side of the border, killing two Syrian refugees and wounding two Turks. The number of such refugees crossing into Turkey has
۱۲ آوریل ۲۰۱۲
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Soner Cagaptay
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