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Iraq's Endgame Strategy

How to respond to the growing threat of war emanating from the United States presents Saddam Hussein with one of the major decisions of his career. It seems logical, but not inevitable, that he will now try to stall for time by offering to negotiate about a possible Iraqi withdrawal

۱۳ نوامبر ۱۹۹۰

Barry Rubin

The Gulf War Clock Is Ticking:

U.S. and Soviet Policy

U.S. Policy The United States will either go to war or will have to begin withdrawing ground forces from the Gulf by next spring. This is the most likely conclusion available from an analysis of the U.S. decision to double ground force deployments in the Persian Gulf. President Bush's decision

۹ نوامبر ۱۹۹۰

John Hannah

Supporting United States but not Ready to Fight

Secretary of State James Baker visited Turkey today, the last stop on his regional tour, to thank that country for its "steadfast" support and warn that the United States "cannot rule out the possible use of force." Turkish officials said there had been no talk about Turkey's opening a second

۷ نوامبر ۱۹۹۰

Barry Rubin

The UN, Israel, and the Gulf Crisis

This week the United States assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council. The first priority on its agenda will be a resolution authorizing force if necessary to reverse Saddam Hussein's aggression. But the Security Council's attention is likely to be diverted by a PLO-led effort to launch a debate

۶ نوامبر ۱۹۹۰

The Allies and the Baker Trip

Secretary of State James Baker's Middle East trip is designed to firm up and define an anti- Iraq coalition held together by U.S. power, Saudi money, and Egyptian management of inter- Arab politics, while Israeli and Turkish power constrain Iraq. Recently, Syria has been the alignment's weak link, but political

۵ نوامبر ۱۹۹۰

Barry Rubin

Growing Prospects for War

The Bush administration's reported decision to send 100,000 more U.S. troops is a turning point in the Gulf crisis. When they arc in position -- in two to three months -- the United States and its allies will be able, for the first time, not only to defend Saudi Arabia

۱ نوامبر ۱۹۹۰

Coalition Coercion:

American strategy in the Gulf crisis has now entered a new phase of "coercive diplomacy." Sanctions backed by force have a better chance to coerce Saddam Hussein to leave Kuwait than the alternative of a long-range, sanctions-only strategy. For the strategy to work, however, three basic and difficult requirements will

۳۱ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

The Embargo and the Iraqi Military

With the prospect of 100,000 more U.S. troops in the Gulf and a heightened chance of war, some argue that the anti-Iraq embargo will reduce Baghdad's fighting ability. Unfortunately, this is wishful thinking. Any loss is likely to be far smaller than expected. In addition to stopping Iraq from acquiring

۳۰ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

How Vulnerable is Iraq's Economy?

A sanction-induced economic crisis cannot be counted on to force Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, much less out of office. Iraq has good prospects of surviving sanctions through the end of 1991 by a combination of tightening consumer's belts and loosening the socialist tourniquet now tied around the Iraqi private

۲۵ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

Patrick Clawson

The Primakov Mission to Baghdad and Washington:

Last week's meeting between President Bush and Yevgeny Primakov, Mikhail Gorbachev's special emissary to Iraq, generated much speculation about a possible Soviet diplomatic initiative to end the Gulf crisis. Those expectations were overblown. While Primakov provided Bush a first-hand account of his discussions in Baghdad with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein

۲۴ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

John Hannah

Is There a "Limited Force" Option?

For now, the Bush administration eschews the use of force while preparing for its use. But what will happen if a consensus develops that President Bush's diplomatic and economic approach is ineffective while a full-scale attack on Iraqi forces remains unattractive? As an additional buildup of U.S. forces gets underway

۲۲ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

Doubts about the Diplomatic Strategy

As the President nears his moment of decision in the Gulf crisis, he is being urged by many policy experts to adopt a long-term, diplomacy-only strategy for dealing with Iraq's aggression. But Secretary of State Baker's dismissal of "partial solutions," the President's refusal to rule out force, and reports of

۱۸ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

The Threatened Anti-Iraq Coalition

In the Persian Gulf today, as so often in international affairs, keeping one's options open seems an attractive alternative. In the long run, however, this is really an illusory choice since the course of events may be determined by decisions taken by others or unforeseen complications. To govern, as the

۱۷ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

All Politics Are Local:

Soviet Constraints in the Gulf Crisis

The growing linkage between Soviet domestic and foreign policy is producing dramatic changes in its Middle East positions. The Soviet regime is playing a key role on some aspects of the Gulf crisis, but its freedom of action is quite constrained in others because of the internal struggle for power

۱۵ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

John Hannah

Measuring Saddam's Arab Support

The recent violence in Jerusalem has again raised fears that Iraq can utilize the Arab-Israeli conflict to break the coalition opposed to its aggression. An accurate assessment of Saddam Hussein's support among non-Iraqi Arabs is critical to understanding this question, as well as the impact of the Gulf crisis on

۱۰ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

Barry Rubin

Is the United States Vulnerable to Saddam?

As the United States enters the third month of its deployment in the Persian Gulf, there is increasing concern about what Saddam Hussein could do to undermine American will or reverse Iraqi diplomatic isolation. Given the array of forces against it and faith in an ability to outlast the world

۵ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

Moscow and the Gulf Crisis:

New Thoughts about New Thinking

The visit of Soviet special envoy Yevgeny Primakov to Baghdad today in search of a diplomatic resolution of the Gulf crisis is another sign of Moscow's growing interest in the crisis as a catalyst for a new Soviet role in the Middle East. Last Sunday's decision to establish diplomatic relations

۴ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

John Hannah

Iran: Which Side Is It On?

Of all the states in the Middle East, Iran's policy has been the most confusing and mysterious. Yet a close examination shows that Tehran has followed a consistent, predictable, attitude toward the Gulf crisis. From Tehran's standpoint, the current situation is the obverse of that prevailing during the eight-year Iran-Iraq

۲ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

Barry Rubin

The Iraq Crisis and Regional Arms Control

One of the most controversial statements during this crisis was Secretary of State James Baker's call for a new Persian Gulf security framework. If Saddam Hussein and/or Iraq's military might survive this confrontation, local states will face continued threats. For them to cooperate with the United States now they must

۱ اکتبر ۱۹۹۰

Moscow in the Middle East:

The Impact of New Thinking

Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze is using the Gulf crisis as a catalyst for farreaching changes in Moscow's Middle East policy. Moscow is putting the emphasis on improving relations with the West and with the wealthy Persian Gulf states at the expense of Arab radicals. Shevardnadze's UN speech was remarkable

۲۷ سپتامبر ۱۹۹۰

John Hannah

Pagination

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Supported by the

Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East

The Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East focuses on the region as a setting for heightened competition between the United States and other world powers, such as China and Russia.

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Robert Satloff - source: The Washington Institute

رابرت ستلوف

رابرت ستلوف مدیر اجرایی انستیتو واشنگتن است. ستلوف کارشناس سیاست‌ عربی و اسلامی است و در زمینه روند صلح اعراب و اسرائیل، چالش اسلام سیاسی و ضرورت اصلاح دیپلماسی عمومی ایالات متحده در خاورمیانه مطالب زیادی منتشر کرده است.

Ambassador Dennis Ross

دنیس راس

سفیر دنیس راس، دستیار ویژه پیشین پرزیدنت باراک اوباما، مشاور انستیتو و هموند برجسته ویلیام دیویدسون در انستیتو واشنگتن است.

Dana Stroul

دانا استرول

دانا استرول مدیر پژوهش و پژوهشگر شلی و مایکل کاسن در موسسه واشینگتن برای سیاست خاور نزدیک است، سمت‌هایی که او در فوریه 2024 به عهده گرفت. او پس از یک دوره خدمت دولتی از 2021 تا 2023 به عنوان معاون دستیار وزیر دفاع برای امور خاورمیانه، یعنی بالاترین مقام غیرنظامی پنتاگون در رابطه با منطقه، بار دیگر به این موسسه پیوسته است. او در وزارت دفاع، رهبری شکل دادن و اجرای سیاست دفاعی ایالات متحده در منطقه را در یک دوره پرتلاطم برعهده داشت، دوره‌ای که شامل سرعت بخشیدن به ابتکارات پدافند یکپارچه هوایی و دریایی، رسیدگی به فعالیت‌های بی‌ثبات‌کننده ایران، تدوین رویکرد ایالات متحده در رقابت استراتژیک، حفظ

Michael Singh

مایکل سینگ

مایکل سینگ هموند پژوهشی ارشد لین-سویگ (Lane-Swig) و مدیرعامل انستیتو واشنگتن ‌است

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