All Policy Analysis by مایکل آیزنستات

The following analysis was prepared for the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States (The Rumsfeld Commission), March 23, 1998. This paper will attempt to answer the following questions: 1) What are the current missile capabilities of Iraq and Iran? 2) What kind of WMD payloads

Despite the recent focus on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Iran poses a greater long-term threat to U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf. Iran possesses a large chemical weapons (CW) arsenal consisting primarily of first generation (World War I era) agents, and it is believed to have a nerve

The agreement hammered out by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein resolving (at least temporarily) the most recent crisis over access to suspected WMD-related sites in Iraq fails to address the fundamental problem the international community faces in Iraq: Baghdad's continued refusal to comply with UN

The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by United Nations (UN) Secretary General Kofi Annan and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz marks a turning point in the approach of the international community toward the regime of Saddam Hussein, and the activities of the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) and International Atomic

Saddam Husayn's speech last Saturday marking the anniversary of Operation Desert Storm confirmed that the current impasse is no ordinary Iraq crisis. Saddam gave the Security Council until May 20 to lift sanctions on Iraq or he would cease cooperation with the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM). Saddam's speech also

Born a small, beleaguered state, outnumbered and surrounded by enemies committed to its destruction, Israel early in its history formulated a distinctive set of principles for its basic defense policy. To outside observers, Israel's approach became emblematic of, indeed, in some respects indistinguishable from its national character. Throughout the quarter-century

As Secretary of State Madeleine Albright prepares to meet with the foreign ministers of Britain, France, and Russia tonight in Geneva to discuss a possible diplomatic solution to the standoff between Iraq and the UN, Washington continues preparations for a military option: the U.S.S. George Washington carrier battle group is

Saddam Husayn probably had several motives in seeking to disrupt UN weapons inspections. First, he sought to undermine the effectiveness of the UN weapons inspectors, if not expel them altogether, because they are the main obstacle to his efforts to transform Iraq into a regional power. Second, Saddam currently has

Iran has been a key issue in this week's U.S.-China summit. Two weeks ago, Beijing promised to halt the transfer of antiship missiles to Iran and, in the run-up to the summit, the Chinese provided written assurances to Washington that it will not initiate any new nuclear cooperation with Iran

This past weekend, Vice President Gore and the President's special envoy on Russian-Iranian proliferation issues, Ambassador Frank Wisner, arrived in Moscow to meet with Russian Premier Viktor Chernomyrdin and other senior officials. Topping the agenda was a subject of growing concern for U.S. policymakers: Russia's deepening involvement in the proliferation

Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's visit this week to the Middle East may be the last chance for the United States to avert a potential drift toward armed confrontation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA), due to the latter's failure to mount a sustained effort to halt terrorism by

The deepening military relationship between Israel and Turkey has heightened Arab and Iranian concerns about the potential implications of this new axis between the two most powerful states in the region. Though these anxieties seem exaggerated, it is animated by a fear that this thus far limited relationship could eventually

As the stand-off over Har Homa continues, Israeli leaders and commentators are increasingly calling for a shake-up of the incremental Oslo process and an immediate move to substantive "final status" talks. According to this argument, leapfrogging over the rest of the "interim phase" has the benefit of avoiding a series

Four years ago this month, Iraqi President Saddam Husayn tried to strengthen his hand against President-elect Clinton by rebuffing UN weapons inspectors, spiriting anti-ship missiles out of a former Iraqi naval base in Kuwait, and challenging no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq. As he begins his second term, President

Although the Clinton Administration's response to Saddam Hussein's attack on Erbil is based on a moral commitment to protect the Kurds of northern Iraq, Washington has focused its response on southern Iraq. U.S. strikes have hit targets in southern Iraq, rather than in the north; President Clinton has not demanded

The U.S. cruise missile strikes on Iraqi air defense forces yesterday and today were intended to have three main consequences: 1) to exact a price for the Iraqi army's actions in Irbil and thereby restore credibility to U.S. deterrence; 2) to degrade Iraqi air defenses in the newly extended no-fly

The past week has seen speculation by Defense Secretary William Perry tying Iran to the recent bombing of U.S. military personnel in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia and a report in Time linking Iran to the downing of TWA 800. How might the U.S. respond if these reports are true? A New

In 1989, following a costly eight-year war with Iraq, Iran initiated a major military build-up intended to rebuild, expand, and modernize its ravaged armed forces and thereby transform itself into a regional military power. Iran's quest for nuclear weapons, its naval build-up in the Persian Gulf, its efforts to undermine

An attack by Hizballah on an outpost of the South Lebanon Army last week underscores both the positive and negative outcomes of the written "understanding" negotiated by Secretary of State Warren Christopher -- namely, while northern Israel and Lebanese civilian targets should be spared further attacks, armed conflict between Israel

On March 13, 1996, Michael Eisenstadt, Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, and Dr. Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at the Nixon Center for Peace and Freedom, addressed The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Mr. Eisenstadt presented the findings of his forthcoming Policy Paper, Iran's Military Power: Capabilities and