All Policy Analysis by مایکل آیزنستات

Although it did not receive much press coverage in the United States, State Department spokesman James P. Rubin's statement last week that military retaliation had not been excluded as a possible response to the Khobar Towers bombing made headlines in Tehran. Rubin's boilerplate response to a reporter's question--"when we judge

The 1996 Khobar Towers bombing, in which nineteen U.S. airmen were killed and hundreds injured, continues to cast a shadow over U.S.-Iran relations. The decision last week by the United States to turn over bombing suspect Hani al-Sayegh to Saudi Arabia for trial, and the revelation this week by State

The nuclear status quo that has prevailed in the Middle East since the 1960s is eroding. Israel remains the sole (undeclared) nuclear-weapons state. But Iraq, having defied the United Nations for nearly a decade, retains its nuclear know-how, and has broken out of its IAEA and UNSCOM cage. And there

Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak has identified peace with Syria and Lebanon as a vital strategic objective and, shortly before leaving for Washington, met with Golan residents to remind them that he believes he was elected to achieve that goal. An understanding between Barak and President Bill Clinton about how

Iraqi president Saddam Husayn is undoubtedly watching events in the Balkans quite closely. Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic's continued defiance of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) proves that the Western alliance continues to misunderstand dictators. Milosevic, like Saddam, does not care about his people but only about his own power

The current bombing campaign against Iraq is clearly not going to solve all U.S. problems with Iraq. The issue of the day is then: how can the bombing be used to advance long-term U.S. goals? Ratchet up the Pressure. The United States seems intent on convincing Saddam Husayn that the

The relationships between the United States and its allies in the Middle East are, for the most part, founded on national security considerations. As a result, trends that might affect the readiness and capabilities of the U.S. armed forces or Washington's ability to use force effectively have potentially far-reaching implications

Three factors were cited by U.S. officials as reasons not to strike Iraq, none of which is convincing. First was the fear that air strikes would signal the death knell of UNSCOM. In fact, experience shows that Saddam has repeatedly backed down when threatened, and does not take risks when

Despite unconfirmed reports of Syrian willingness to expel PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and close PKK bases, Turkish-Syrian tensions are likely to persist; Syria's track record of reneging on pledges to cease supporting the PKK will make Ankara skeptical about the durability of any agreement. For this reason, Turkish military action

Introduction Muhammad Khatami's surprise victory in the May 23, 1997, Iranian presidential election generated much enthusiasm at home and much interest abroad. For Iranians, the massive popular mandate -- Khatami received 70 percent of the vote with a nearly 90 percent turnout -- showed their disillusionment with the ruling establishment

Testimony before the House National Security Committee U.S. policy toward Iraq is at a turning point. Decisions made in the coming weeks and months will affect American interests in the Middle East and the fate of the region for years to come. Unfortunately, there is no clear, obvious solutions to

Richard Murphy's Aug. 25 op-ed piece in support of the administration's "new diplomatic approach" toward Iraq is a recipe for disaster. Ambassador Murphy asserts that this "new approach . . . may prove more effective" than the policy abandoned by the administration after the last confrontation with Iraq that ended

The U.S. cruise missile attacks on the Sudanese chemical weapons precursor plant and the Afghanistan terrorist camps raises questions about the future direction of U.S. policy on several fronts: the emphasis on state linkages to terrorism, the means used to counter proliferation, the role of law enforcement and military force

Iran gave a new twist to President Khatami's call for a "civilizational dialogue" on July 22 when it test-launched a medium-range missile with the potential to reach India in the east, Russia in the north, Egypt and Turkey in the west and Israel, Jordan and all Gulf Cooperation Council states

On June 15, 1998, Eliot Cohen, director of the strategic studies program at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Michael Eisenstadt, senior fellow in military affairs at The Washington Institute, and Andrew Bacevich, director of SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute and director-designate of the Center for International Studies

Iran has become pragmatic. The pragmatism began not with Khatemi but with the first day of the revolution. As happens with any ideological revolution, there is a significant change between the ideology while in opposition and the policy upon taking power. This bitter reality has forced Iran to deviate from

The recent series of nuclear weapons tests in South Asia -- reportedly five bombs by India last week and five by Pakistan yesterday -- are likely to have reverberations for nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, though the impact of these tests may not be evident for some time. A

Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on Near East and South Asian Affairs The May 1997 election of Mohammad Khatami as president of Iran has raised hopes and expectations of change in Iran's domestic and foreign policy. In the foreign policy arena, it is possible to discern a

Remarks last week by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Yahya Rahim Safavi during a closed meeting with IRGC officers -- leaked to the Iranian press -- underscore the growing impatience of the country's conservative hardliners with the liberal trend of the Khatami government, Iran's declared intention to adhere to

The crisis with Iraq, the decision to immunize U.S. troops against anthrax, and recent incidents in the U.S. and Britain (including at least one hoax) have together raised the American public's awareness of the threat posed by chemical and biological (CB) terrorism. Heightened awareness, however, has not been matched by