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Brief Analysis
Iranian EFPs in the Gulf: An Emerging Strategic Risk
Tehran and its proxies have increased their efforts to provide armor-piercing explosive devices to Shiite cells in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, and this game-changing escalation could pose even greater challenges if Riyadh takes further action in Syria.
۲۳ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Fatalities in the Syrian War
Analysis of funeral reports and other open-source data offers potentially revealing insights into the militia's combat losses in Syria, its shifting role in the war next door, and the security of its position back home in Lebanon.
۲۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Ali Alfoneh
Articles & Testimony
A Palestinian Vice President? Players, Possibilities, Problems
Until Fatah settles its own internal power struggle, appointing a PA vice president will remain nothing but an idea divorced from political reality.
۲۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
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Ghaith al-Omari
Articles & Testimony
The First Step Should Be to Create Buffer Zones in Syria
Any safe zones would need to be secured by the military forces of Syria’s neighbors, such as Turkey and Jordan, as well as by U.S. air and ground support.
۲۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
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Andrew J. Tabler
In-Depth Reports
The Five Factors Slowing Gaza Reconstruction
Mitchel Hochberg untangles the complex factors hindering Gaza reconstruction and shows why a clearer understanding is a necessary first step toward rectifying this dangerous situation.
۲۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
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Mitchel Hochberg
Brief Analysis
IS and Russia Could Exploit Turkey's Political Divisions
Unfortunate civil unrest could emerge if the jihadist group continues targeting anti-government Turks and Moscow keeps its sights set on Erdogan and his party.
۲۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Are Putin and Assad Playing Good Cop, Bad Cop?
Some analysts have voiced disagreement with the view that Damascus and Moscow are truly at odds.
۲۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
A Turkish 'Secure Strip' in Syria: Domestic Concerns and Foreign Limitations
Although Ankara has the necessary parliamentary authorization and professional military capacity to establish a safe zone, it would still need Western intelligence help, air support, and diplomatic backing to cover the operation and deter Russian retaliation.
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Cem Yolbulan
Articles & Testimony
Russian Expectations for Post-Sanctions Iran
Joint support of Basher al-Assad's regime has highlighted Moscow and Tehran’s developing political alliance. In contrast, the level of economic cooperation between the two states has historically been very modest: 2014 trade between the two countries amounted to $1.68 billion and was just 0.2% of all Russian foreign trade. Yet
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Huseyn Panahov
Brief Analysis
Legal Justifications for a Safe Zone in Syria
UN Security Council Resolutions 2170, 2249, and 2254 offer ample grounds for establishing a zone to protect refugees and counter the Islamic State, but shaping the international diplomatic response would be paramount given the legal gray areas inherent in such action.
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
James Jeffrey
Articles & Testimony
The Tragedy of Yemen’s Civil Society
In times of crisis, individuals rise up to act as their society’s conscience. These individuals work to alert the international community to human rights violations or work tirelessly to help their community recover from major obstacles, natural or man-made. These protectors are civil society activists, community mobilizers, and independent journalists
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Nadia al-Sakkaf
Articles & Testimony
Safety First in Syria
However difficult it might be to implement safe zones after years of inaction, the humanitarian disaster will only grow without them, as will the threat to regional and European stability.
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
The Nile Basin Initiative and the Crisis of Collective Negotiations
There is no doubt that Egypt faces a slew of challenges and potentially dire consequences related to the Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia is currently constructing at the headwaters of the Nile. Some politicians and media personalities have attempted to characterize the construction of the Renaissance Dam as a side effect
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Yahya Ghanim
Articles & Testimony
Salafi Politics During the Arab Uprisings: Methodological Insights from Game Theory
Understanding how Salafi leaders balance ideological robustness and personal risk as they are validated or threatened by local circumstances might be a good place to start in assessing their future approach to political engagement.
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Jacob Olidort
Brief Analysis
Iran and Russia's Growing Defense Ties
The lifting of international sanctions and the region's vastly changing geopolitical environment have opened a window of opportunity for Tehran to buy potent arms from Russia and modernize its arsenal.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The State(s) of Ideology in the Middle East: Introduction
Western policy must be precise and consistent in its use of terms, objectives, and methods in order to account for differing local perceptions.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Jacob Olidort
Articles & Testimony
Terror Attack in Ankara: A New Era of Kurdish Politics for Turkey?
The Kurdish issue in Turkey stands on the precipice of becoming an international problem, involving all sorts of nefarious actors from the Syrian civil war.
۱۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Soner Cagaptay
TWI Series on State(s) of Ideology
Explore the roles of Salafism, jihadism, nationalism, and other movements as drivers of conflict and alliance post-Arab Spring.
۱۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Jacob Olidort
Soner Cagaptay
David Pollock
Said Amir Arjomand
Brief Analysis
Countering Russian and Assad Regime Responses to Safe Zones
For such zones to succeed, they must be backed with militarily enforced no-fly zones and a persuasive response to Moscow's inevitable small-scale violations and disinformation campaign.
۱۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
The Reality of Riyadh
Saudi Arabia today is trying to unite the Arab world, while countering Iran in Yemen, Syria, and elsewhere, and also coping with an oil price that remains stubbornly weak.
۱۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Simon Henderson
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