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لبنان

Policy Analysis on لبنان

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Brief Analysis
The Lebanon-Syria-Israel Triangle:
One Year after Israeli Withdrawal
While the violence in the West Bank and Gaza captures most of the attention, arguably more important developments in the last year have occurred in the Syria-Lebanon-Israel triangle. The Collapse of the Syrian-Israeli Peace Process The collapse of the Geneva summit in March 2000 formalized the demise of the negotiations
۲۲ مهٔ ۲۰۰۱
Brief Analysis
Hariri in Washington
A preview of Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri's first visit to Washington since returning to office in September 2000.
۲۳ آوریل ۲۰۰۱
◆
  • Yossi Baidatz
Brief Analysis
From Tehran to Beirut to Jerusalem:
Iran and Hizballah in the Palestinian Uprising
As Arab leaders gather in Amman for the first regular Arab summit in a decade, non-Arab Iran is keenly watching to see whether Arab heads-of-state once again make grandiose promises to support the Palestinians. If Arab leaders fail to deliver on these promises, as has been the case with Arab
۲۶ مارس ۲۰۰۱
Brief Analysis
Lebanon:
Between Hong Kong and Hanoi
The behind-the-scenes conflict between liberal and illiberal forces within Lebanon's political structure is spilling into public view.
۹ مارس ۲۰۰۱
◆
  • Yossi Baidatz
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Foreign Policy Challenges U.S. Interests
This is the second of a two-part series marking the six months since Bashar al-Asad became president of Syria on July 17, 2000. Read Part I. For a region used to the late Hafiz al-Asad’s stodgy predictability, his son Bashar’s six-month-old presidency has displayed a surprisingly active foreign policy, including
۱۹ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۰۱
◆
  • Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Syria under Bashar al-Asad:
The Domestic Scene and the 'Chinese Model' of Reform
This is the first of a two-part series marking the six months since Bashar al-Asad became president of Syria on July 17, 2000. Read Part II. On January 11, a petition signed by a thousand Syrian intellectuals appeared in the Lebanese press demanding -- inter alia -- freedom of expression
۱۷ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۰۱
◆
  • Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
From Sheba’a to al-Quds:
The Evolution of Hizballah
Rather than exploiting the Israeli withdrawal from the "security zone" in May 2000 to focus on internal Lebanese politics, Hizballah is maintaining its military strategy against Israel at the risk of triggering a full-scale war.
۱۵ دسامبر ۲۰۰۰
◆
  • Yossi Baidatz
Brief Analysis
The Israeli-Lebanese Border Dispute and Resolution 425:
Recent Declarations by the United States and the United Nations
"The Arab leaders affirm that just, comprehensive peace will not be achieved except with . . . the restoration of all the occupied Arab territories, including full Israeli withdrawal from . . . southern Lebanon to the internationally recognized borders, including Shebaa farms, the release of Arab prisoners in Israeli
۳ نوامبر ۲۰۰۰
Brief Analysis
Hizballah's Kidnapping:
An Opportunity to Test Bashar al-Asad
The kidnapping of IDF soldiers from the Israel-Lebanon border presents Washington with its first opportunity to test the intentions and capabilities of Syria's new and inexperienced president, Bashar al-Asad.
۱۳ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
◆
  • Yossi Baidatz
Brief Analysis
The Hizballah Kidnapping and the Potential for a 'Second Front'
Hizballah's capture of three IDF soldiers in the disputed Lebanese-Israeli eastern Har Dov/Shebaa Farms border area Saturday marked the most serious outbreak of IDF-Hizballah hostilities since the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May. The well-planned and executed ambush underscored the continued threat to Israel posed by Hizballah's highly-skilled guerrilla
۱۲ اکتبر ۲۰۰۰
Brief Analysis
Lebanese Elections:
Syrian Key Interests Preserved, For Now
The stunning success of several prominent opposition candidates in Lebanon's recent parliamentary elections has been portrayed by much of the Western press as a "defeat" for Syrian interests in Lebanon, and a "loosening" of Syria's grip over its smaller neighbor. Now that the elections are over, the next step in
۷ سپتامبر ۲۰۰۰
Brief Analysis
Hizballah and the Upcoming Lebanese Elections:
Shifting Priorities
Hizballah is shifting its focus from armed resistance to internal matters in anticipation of the upcoming parliamentary elections. Hizballah hopes to translate its "victory" over the IDF and South Lebanon Army into a greater share of domestic political power. Hizballah Secretary-General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah acknowledges the shift in priorities, stating
۱۸ اوت ۲۰۰۰
Brief Analysis
Israel-Lebanon Border:
Security Situation Improving
Today, following last weekend's deployment into southern Lebanon by United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Lebanese security forces fulfilled their commitments and deployed into Israel's former occupied zone. The lack of major incidents and the relative restraint of Hizballah since the IDF withdrew in May surprises some observers, but
۹ اوت ۲۰۰۰
Brief Analysis
Domestic Politics and State Interests in Syria and Israel
Syria’s old power structure is giving way, and new faces are emerging. Bashar al-Asad is well on his way to becoming president. A new generation has also begun to take positions of power in the Ba‘th party hierarchy, the military, the cabinet, and the security organs. Although the old guard
۲۹ ژوئن ۲۰۰۰
◆
  • David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Who Rules Syria?
Bashar al-Asad and the Alawi 'Barons'
The orderly transfer of power following the death of President Hafiz al-Asad, in accordance with Syria’s constitutional succession mechanism, has highlighted the role of the formal power structures of the Syrian state: the presidency, cabinet, National Assembly, and, above all, the Ba’th party. It has, however, obscured the crucial role
۲۱ ژوئن ۲۰۰۰
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Israeli Arabs and Lebanon:
A New Phase?
The sudden death of Syrian president Hafiz al-Asad on June 10 added confusion and uncertainty to the relations among Syria, Israel, and Lebanon--relations that were already in flux after Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon. One unexpected result may be increased politicization of the Israeli Arabs in northern Israel. Northern Israel and
۱۹ ژوئن ۲۰۰۰
Brief Analysis
A New Asad—A New Syria?
Hafiz al-Asad was a cautious and calculating leader, but he had not completed the steps to guarantee a smooth succession to his son Bashar by the time of his death. Nevertheless, Bashar al-Asad will probably become Syria’s next president. There are no significant or immediate threats to his accession. Some
۱۶ ژوئن ۲۰۰۰
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Can Bashar al-Asad Hold On in Syria?
Syrian president Hafiz al-Asad had a knack for bad timing. He delayed for years making his son Bashar his formal successor, wanting to get everything just right--and then he died a week before everything was to fall into place to make Bashar the anointed one. It seems very likely Bashar
۱۲ ژوئن ۲۰۰۰
Brief Analysis
Hizballah in Lebanon:
What Next?
Having driven the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and its proxy South Lebanon Army (SLA) out of Lebanon, Hizballah faces the momentous decision of what to do next. As the most capable guerrilla group operating in Lebanon, Hizballah’s decision will have profound effects on the security environment not only on the
۱ ژوئن ۲۰۰۰
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Diplomatic Action Needed in Lebanon
Without U.S. diplomatic intervention, the most likely outcome of last week's Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is that some radical group — acting under Syrian and Iranian pressure — will launch cross-border attacks on Israel. This could lead Israel to respond with intense artillery fire and air strikes, possibly against Syrian
۳۱ مهٔ ۲۰۰۰
◆
  • Patrick Clawson

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