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لبنان

Policy Analysis on لبنان

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Brief Analysis
Lebanon:
At the Crossroads between Democracy and Rogue State
Lebanon’s ongoing parliamentary elections—held in a staggered format through June 19—reflect a new, complex reality for the country. Although free from Syrian tutelage and gerrymandering, the results have been much less encouraging than had been hoped when Syrian troops withdrew. Background: Past Elections The 1990 Taif Accord offered an imperfect
۱۷ ژوئن ۲۰۰۵
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  • Robert Rabil
Articles & Testimony
Sin of Omission
President Bashar al Assad of Syria has lately seemed to be doing everything possible to make himself an ex-dictator—and this week he took yet another step in that direction. Ironically, his latest mistake was not some egregious act of oppression or deceit—though he has in the past been guilty of
۸ ژوئن ۲۰۰۵
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  • Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Baath Party Congress in Damascus:
How Much Change in Syria?
Syrian leaders hope that significant reforms introduced at the Baath Party's Tenth Regional Congress on June 6 will allow them to fend off both domestic challenges and foreign threats. Among the important issues on the Congress' agenda is the status of the Baath Party itself. Obsolete Ideology Since he assumed
۲ ژوئن ۲۰۰۵
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  • Robert Rabil
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy toward a Weak Assad
Bashar al-Assad's rule of Syria has been characterized by vacillation and a constant pattern of miscalculation. Whether his regime can survive its most profound error and the potential loss of its control of Lebanon remains to be seen. For now, U.S. policy, while emphasizing the need for full implementation of
۱ ژوئن ۲۰۰۵
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  • Dennis Ross
In-Depth Reports
Twentieth Anniversary Soref Symposium:
Assessing the Winds of Change
On May 20, 2005, Rola Dashti, Hisham Kassem, Habib Malik, and Mohsen Sazegara addressed The Washington Institute's Soref Symposium. Rola Dashti is chair and chief officer of FARO International, a management consulting firm, a leader in the campaign for women's rights in Kuwait and sn associate professor at Kuwait University
۲۰ مهٔ ۲۰۰۵
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  • Mohsen Sazegara
Brief Analysis
How Is Syria Ruled?
On the heels of its military withdrawal from Lebanon, Syria is preparing for the Tenth Regional Congress of the Baath Party, the first such congress in five years and only the second in twenty years. Prior to the regional congress, scheduled for June, the party will hold a national pan-Arab
۹ مهٔ ۲۰۰۵
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  • Robert Rabil
Articles & Testimony
An Islamist Syria Is Not Very Probable
Syria's Muslim Brotherhood - banned for nearly 25 years - has been increasingly vocal recently in its criticism of the regime of President Bashar Assad. Earlier this month, for example, it demanded the organization of free elections, cancellation of the state of emergency and dismantlement of special courts, warning that
۲۹ آوریل ۲۰۰۵
Brief Analysis
The Hizballah Conundrum
President George W. Bush’s March 15 statement expressing hope that Hizballah would prove not to be a terrorist organization, “laying down arms and not threatening peace,” suggests a conundrum for policymakers: how do you treat a chameleonic body that is simultaneously an important political party and an armed terror group
۲۹ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Michael Herzog
Brief Analysis
Syrian Strategy in Lebanon
As Syrian troops continue to withdraw from parts of Lebanon, three bomb attacks have occurred within eight days in predominantly Christian areas: a March 19 car bomb wrecked the front of a building in New Jdeideh, wounding nine; a March 22 bomb ripped through an elite shopping center in Kaslik
۲۸ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Robert Rabil
Brief Analysis
The Role of International Monitors and Observers in the Lebanese Elections
President George W. Bush recently stated, “The elections in Lebanon must be fully and carefully monitored by international observers.” Already, Lebanese prime minister Omar Karami has issued a de facto invitation to former president Jimmy Carter to fulfill that role. Some skepticism is warranted, particularly with regard to the notion
۲۲ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Patrick Clawson
  • Robert Rabil
Articles & Testimony
Thinking the Unthinkable
What do Georgia, Ukraine, and Lebanon have in common? Their publics have said no to fear. They would not be silenced or intimidated as they rejected the fraudulent elections and corrupt governments imposed on them. Iraqi Shiites and, to a lesser extent, the Kurds could be added to this list
۲۱ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
From Beirut to Algiers:
The Arab League’s Role in the Lebanon Crisis
Arab leaders meet in Algiers on March 22 for an Arab League summit, at a moment of high tension within Lebanon over the pace and extent of Syria’s military withdrawal and the future domestic political map. Despite the important roles many of the summiteers have played in urging Damascus to
۲۱ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Robert Rabil
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Bush Administration's Policy of 'Constructive Instability' (Part II):
Regional Dynamics
In Lebanon, the Bush Administration's regional policy of "constructive instability" is approaching a critical juncture, with important decisions looming about how the further implementation of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1559 relates to other U.S. strategic interests. More generally, the policy is having an effect throughout the region, from the
۱۶ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Bush Administration’s Policy of 'Constructive Instability' (Part I):
Lebanon and Syria
The Bush Administration's policy of "constructive instability" in the Middle East is facing a critical juncture in Lebanon. Taking advantage of a rare confluence of events and international interests, President George W. Bush has focused U.S. efforts on one plank of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1559 -- the withdrawal
۱۵ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
What Role for the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria’s Future?
In calling for a demonstration in Damascus on March 10, Haitham Maleh, an opposition figure with close connections to the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, proclaimed, “We are 85 percent of the country”—an apparent gesture of solidarity against Syria’s ruling Alawite minority. The group of about 100 demonstrators who answered his call
۱۱ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Michael Jacobson
Brief Analysis
After the Hariri Assassination:
Syria, Lebanon, and U.S. Policy
When Bashar al-Asad assumed power in 2001, there was widespread optimism that he would, by virtue of his British education and Western outlook, modernize the Syrian government and expand individual and political rights. Yet, after a short period of preliminary change, dubbed the "Damascus Spring," Asad proved unwilling or unable
۱۰ مارس ۲۰۰۵
Brief Analysis
Preventing Iran and Hizballah from Filling the Void in Lebanon
The March 8 mass rally in Beirut, organized by Hizballah to counter the popular Lebanese opposition movement, serves as a reminder that establishing genuine freedom and democracy in Lebanon will require more than a Syrian withdrawal. Whereas the opposition, backed by strong international and regional sentiment, focuses on rejecting Syria’s
۸ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Michael Herzog
Iran and Syria:
State Sponsorship in the Age of Terror Networks
The following lecture was published as a chapter in Confronting Terrorism Financing, American Foreign Policy Council (Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 2005). The age of “network terrorism” results from the loosely affiliated networks that, taken together, form the potent international terrorist threat that challenges Western civilization today. Such networks
۷ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Bashar al-Asad's Fateful Speech:
A Policy of Inconsistency and Paranoia
With international pressure rising for a full and speedy Syrian troop withdrawal from Lebanon, Syrian president Bashar al-Asad responded with a speech to his nation's rubber-stamp parliament on Saturday, March 5, that was a blend of defiance and conciliation, leavened with inconsistency and paranoia. If one of Asad's tasks was
۷ مارس ۲۰۰۵
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  • Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Next Steps in Lebanon:
Key Variables in the Growing Confrontation with Syria
The fall of the Omar Karami cabinet in Beirut on February 28 marked an important development in the brewing confrontation between an energized civil society in Lebanon and the country's Syrian-backed government. While Damascus will likely try to staunch the bleeding of its occupation of Lebanon by redeploying troops—and perhaps
۲ مارس ۲۰۰۵

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