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شمال أفريقيا

Policy Analysis on شمال أفريقيا

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Articles & Testimony
Use Flexibility to Fight Terror
At a time when U.S. global power seems absolute, the presidential candidates are assiduously avoiding thorny international security issues. Such complacency is misguided because the U.S. faces a greater terrorist threat now than at any point in the past. The next president will have to confront not just the challenge
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
The Lockerbie Trial Intensifies
The Lockerbie trial about to be resumed in the Netherlands will soon enter one of its most important stages. In the coming sessions a critical witness, a Libyan double agent, will take the stand. The testimony of this defector is expected to confirm not just the complicity of the suspects
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
The Lockerbie Trial, Round One
The much-anticipated trial of two Libyans accused of downing Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, has now been in session for two weeks. In this brief period, important developments have already taken place both inside and outside the courtroom. Although prior to the trial, there was much speculation on
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Lockerbie Trial:
At Last?
After eleven years of legal and political maneuverings, the Lockerbie trial is finally set to begin on May 3 in Camp Zeist, Netherlands. The two suspects, Abdel Basset al-Megrahi and Al Amin Khalifa Fahima, stand accused of perpetrating one of the worst acts of terrorism in history. The explosion of
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Qadhafi at the European-African Summit:
Is He Moderating His Stand?
Mercurial Libyan leader Mu'ammar Qadhafi continues to disappoint those who hope for moderation. His April 3 speech at the Africa-European Union (EU) summit, much heralded as a sign of where Libya is headed, was old-fashioned bombast. Although much may have changed in the international community, Qadhafi's commitment to "anti-imperialism" and
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Qadhafi's New Political Order
On March 1, Libyan leader Col. Muammar Qadhafi announced the most sweeping changes in Libya's political structure since the launching of the Jamahiriyya (state of masses) in 1977. In a surprising move, the colonel dismissed his prime minister and foreign minister while abolishing twelve other ministries altogether. Qadhafi insisted that
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
The Struggle for Power within Sudan's Top Leadership
On December 22, Sudanese president Umar Hasan Ahmad al-Bashir met Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak in Cairo on Bashir's first visit there in six years. The day before, he met the leaders of four other Sudanese neighbors (Libya, Eritrea, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo) in Tripoli, Libya. These visits
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Brief Analysis
Is Qadhafi Changing His Spots?
In the past ten days, Libyan leader Mu‘ammar Qadhafi has made progress in his efforts to achieve international respectability. After fifteen years, a British ambassador, Richard Dalton, arrived in Tripoli pledging to help Libya return to the “mainstream of the international community.” And Colonel Qadhafi’s status as mediator of thorny
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Qadhafi's Calculated Diplomacy:
Circumventing Lockerbie
Since the handover of the suspects in the 1988 bombing of PanAm flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, Col. Mu'ammar Qadhafi has embarked on a series of diplomatic initiatives suggesting a fundamental reorientation of Libya's foreign policy. The once-uncompromising ideologue has embraced the mantle of a statesman who appears to adhere
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Morocco after Hassan II:
Domestic Challenges and Regional Implications
The late King Hassan II leaves behind an important legacy in Morocco and the Middle East. He was a courageous peacemaker; a voice of reconciliation between Muslims, Jews, and Christians; and a vital link between Shii and Sunni Muslims. After Hassan's death, it is now up to his son and
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Brief Analysis
From Hassan to Mohammed:
A New Era for Morocco
Given its strategic location at the entrance to the Mediterranean basin, Morocco has for decades been seen as an important bulwark for Western interests, first against Soviet and radical Arab influences (especially the National Liberation Front--FLN--in Algeria) and then against Islamist radicalism, which tore Algeria apart. Morocco appeared as an
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Libya and Africa
Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on Africa "I have no time to lose talking with Arabs.... I now talk about Pan-Africanism and African unity." With this declaration, Mu'ammar Qadhafi apparently proclaimed a new era in Libya's foreign policy. In recent weeks, the colonel has buttressed this
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
After Lockerbie:
Qadhafi's Diplomatic Resurrection
American and Libyan diplomats are slated to meet tomorrow at the United Nations in what will be the first face-to-face discussions in more than a decade. The purpose of the meeting is to discuss whether sanctions against Libya, which are currently suspended, should be permanently lifted. However this issue is
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Algeria:
Facing Presidential Elections
With the 1999 elections, Algeria is the only Arab country to have had two presidential elections that included more than one candidate. The seven candidates running in the 1999 presidential elections represent a wide range of views, minus the two most extreme, that is, the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) and
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Brief Analysis
An End to the Lockerbie Morass?
The Libyan Angle
Libya today handed over two suspects in the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103. Having worked out a deal that insulates the regime from any further blame, Tripoli finally accepted the offer of a trial to be held at a neutral site under Scottish rules. Less obvious, given Libya's
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Qaddafi, Lockerbie, and Prospects for Libya
Libya's economic decomposition has led to the rise of an Islamic opposition. The Islamists are increasingly allying with the Libyan armed forces, forming a pragmatic union that is likely to define Libya's political future in the post-Qaddafi period. Background. In the pre-Qaddafi period, Islam played a central role in Libya's
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  • Ray Takeyh
  • Gideon Rose
Brief Analysis
Sudan May Emerge As Irritant to U.S.-Egyptian Ties
As President Clinton toured Africa earlier this month, seven U.S. government officials met with Sudanese rebel leaders in Asmara. The meeting followed months of signs that the U.S. government is stepping up efforts to weaken if not overthrow the Sudanese government. At the same time, ties between the governments of
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  • Jon B. Alterman
Brief Analysis
Algeria:
Between Democracy and Terrorism
Contrary to most media reportage, the constitutional crisis in Algeria in 1991-1992 was not the engine that ignited terrorism. Acts of terrorism by groups and individuals claiming to speak in the name of Islam began in the mid-1980s, when the Algerian government began exploring ways to implement economic reforms and
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Brief Analysis
Algeria after Elections:
What Next?
The results of the Algerian election suggest that about 80 percent of the Algerian people (at least those who voted) favor separating "mosque" and "state." This outcome is significant because it indicates that Algerians are successfully resisting "Islamic totalitarianism." Many Algerians have said that the vote wasn't as clean as
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In-Depth Reports
An Islamic Republic of Algeria?
Implications for the Middle East and the West
The More than three years after Algeria's military-backed government annulled the results of the first round of parliamentary elections, the country remains locked in a bloody civil war with insurgents seeking to establish a sharia-based Islamic regime. While by no means assured, an Islamist takeover could occur in one of
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