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Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Opinion Survey Insights into the 2018 Iraqi Election
The results of the May 2018 Iraqi elections caught many by surprise, especially in the polling field. A series of public opinion surveys conducted between March and May predicted that the Nasr Coalition, led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, would win the highest number of seats in the Iraqi Parliament
۱۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Munqith Dagher
Articles & Testimony
What the Stolen Iranian Nuclear Secrets Do, and Don’t, Reveal
The Israeli revelations make the argument for sticking with the nuclear accord much more difficult to sustain.
۱۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran After the JCPOA Withdrawal (Part 2): Shaping Tehran’s Response
Tehran will likely resort to measured countermoves in the nuclear domain at first, but successful U.S. pressure could spur it to challenge JCPOA limits, take action in non-nuclear domains, or push back against U.S. and allied forces.
۱۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iran After the JCPOA Withdrawal (Part 1): Lessons from Past Pressure Campaigns
Tehran has generally responded to pressure by issuing threats, ramping up its nuclear activities, accepting temporary limits, and, when the heat is turned up, launching cyber, military, and terrorist operations.
۱۶ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Syria Could Be on Trump-Putin Agenda, But Options for a Deal Are Slim
In addition to his poor record on keeping promises, Putin has no ability or desire to genuinely restrain Iran, leaving little room for substantive dealmaking.
۱۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Anna Borshchevskaya
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
After the Match, Saudi Arabia Makes the Real Play
As the FIFA World Cup final approaches, a highlight this year was the four Middle Eastern countries participating for the first time in years. Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Saudi Arabia each succeeded in qualifying, though their respective teams did not make it further than the first round of the Cup
۱۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Danya Rubenstein-Markiewicz
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Drawing on Past Lessons for Lasting Peace in Yemen
The Houthi militia’s track record of betrayal and broken promises shows that it only calls for negotiations and is willing to discuss compromises when the group is at a disadvantage. These negotiations allow the group’s fighters to catch their breath, reposition themselves, and launch a new round of violence. Thus
۱۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Moammar Al-Eryani
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Jordan’s Shift Back to the Sunni-Israeli Coalition
Despite recent tensions between Jordan and other stakeholders in the Middle East, shifting dynamics across the region have recently led to the formation of a tentative U.S.-backed cooperation between Israel and such Sunni Arab states as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and the Hashemite Kingdom. While this rapprochement
۱۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Abdullah Sawalha
Video
Getting Syria Right at the Trump-Putin Summit
Keeping U.S. troops in place is critical to our national security, but American interests don't require the large-scale, long-term ground force that many fear.
۱۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
James Jeffrey
Barbara A. Leaf
Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Political Divide Deepening in Turkey as Erdogan Assumes More Power
With the president aiming to force a dominant-party system on a split electorate, Turkish society may be headed for a long-term political crisis.
۱۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Soner Cagaptay
In-Depth Reports
Neutralizing the Gaza Powder Keg
Since the end of March 2018, the Gaza-Israel border has witnessed repeated violent eruptions initiated by Hamas, including challenging the border and causing massive fires in Israel. With ongoing friction for months and scores of Palestinian fatalities, clashes have grown progressively more violent, risking deterioration into yet another Israel-Hamas war
۱۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Michael Herzog
Ghaith al-Omari
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Taking Stock of U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts Since 9/11
The director of strategic operational planning at the National Counterterrorism Center discusses the general state of U.S. CT efforts, the persistence of the threat, and the need to focus on nonkinetic prevention methods.
۱۰ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Michael Nagata
◆
Counterterrorism Lecture Series
In-Depth Reports
Toward a New U.S. Policy in Syria
Ground Zero for Countering Iran and Deterring an Islamic State Revival
Today, Syria is the sole battlefield in the world where American, Russian, Turkish, Iranian, and Israeli military forces all operate, along with a kaleidoscope of proxy actors foreign and domestic. As the preeminent arena of strategic competition in the Middle East and a wellspring of potential Islamic State resurgence, Syria
۱۰ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Katherine Bauer
Soner Cagaptay
Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
James Jeffrey
Barbara A. Leaf
Matthew Levitt
Dennis Ross
Robert Satloff
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
U.S.-Kurdish Relations in Syria after the Manbij Roadmap
In June, Turkey and the United States announced that they had agreed to implement a roadmap to promote peace in the Syrian city of Manbij, which has been under the control of the Syrian Democratic Forces since the 2016 expulsion of ISIS. The agreement came as part of U.S. efforts
۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Abdel Raheem Said
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Future of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Lebanon
On the streets of Beirut, the impact of the Syrian Civil War is more than palpable. According to recent reports, Syrian refugees make up approximately a fourth of Lebanon’s total population. Seeking to address rising acrimony and hostility between refugees and Lebanese, the country’s authorities have been searching for solutions
۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Jiwan Soz
Articles & Testimony
We Already Gave Syria to Putin, So What’s Left for Trump to Say?
Given Moscow's repeatedly broken promises, the president should make clear that the United States will stay in Syria to continue fighting the Islamic State—and to back Israel against Iran if necessary.
۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Haftar's Play for Libyan Oil
To preserve Libyan unity, the United States should threaten to block any oil shipments not authorized by the country's internationally recognized government.
۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
The Problem of Landmine Proliferation in Yemen
The United States should take the lead in preventing the spread of landmine use beyond the Arabian Peninsula, thereby upholding decades of norm-building efforts.
۳ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸
◆
Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
Accepting Regime Forces in South Syria Will Only Further Iran’s Goals
Whether openly or in disguise, Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies are deploying to the south in large numbers, greatly increasing the potential for cross-border escalation.
۲۹ ژوئن ۲۰۱۸
◆
Hanin Ghaddar
Phillip Smyth
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Algerian Press: On the Brink
After the outbreak of the so-called “oil and sugar” protest that began in Algeria concurrently with the Arab Spring, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika was quick to announce that he would promote far-reaching political reforms in an attempt to assuage public pressure. However, the state of journalism in the country has not
۲۹ ژوئن ۲۰۱۸
◆
Ahmed Marwane
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