All Policy Analysis by جیمز اف. جفری

Issues such as energy dependence, deep-rooted fears of the Russian military, and Black Sea navigation policy all offer clues to Prime Minister Erdogan's vacillating response to Russian activities in Crimea.

The Ukraine situation will affect Washington's Middle Eastern priorities, but not to such a degree that it will stymie a strong U.S. response to Russian actions, since America has the power to act in the region without Moscow if necessary. Ukraine could well make it necessary.

The Obama administration seems to be understating the risks of minimalist engagement in Syria and overstating the risks of greater involvement, despite the achievable, worthwhile goals of military assistance and limited use of force.

Iraq is at a decisive impasse. An al-Qaeda threat able to operate as a quasi-conventional military force has seized large portions of western Iraq, including parts of Ramadi and Fallujah, two major cities in Anbar province. While the main reason for the growth of al-Qaeda in Iraq, a faction which

Turkey will hold local and presidential elections in 2014, both of significant import. The AKP, in power since 2002, has lasted longer than any other government since the country became a multiparty democracy in 1950. Likewise, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled Turkey longer than any other democratically elected

Prime Minister Erdogan's increasingly autocratic rule has alienated the Gulen movement.

Washington's failure to act forcefully in Syria and other limited-risk situations will only fuel chaos in the Middle East.