Policy Analysis

In a series of articles, op-eds, videos and media appearances, Institute scholar Soner Cagaptay, as well as other Institute experts and contributors, map out possible outcomes, discussing what the elections mean for Turkey’s trajectory, NATO, the Middle East, and the rest of the world.

Activity in Cyprus and Lebanon could have significant implications for regional energy and diplomacy.

Though GCC member states may disagree on Syria's normalization, the collective memory of past conflicts and the desire for regional stability will likely override internal divisions.

نظرسنجی‌ها رقبا را امیدوار می‌کند، ولی کنترل اردوغان بر رسانه‌ها و دیگر عوامل می‌تواند تلاش آن‌ها را برای بالاخره سرنگون کردن رئیس‌جمهور و بلوک حاکم او عقیم بگذارد.

Watch an expert webcast as scholars and journalists preview Turkey's historic 2023 elections and their implications for Turkish policy, the wider Middle East, and Washington's relationship with Ankara.

In this video, Beyer Family Fellow Soner Cagaptay provides context for the upcoming election and assesses Erdogan's prospects for success.

The country has been described as “too big to fail,” but further deterioration is possible amid mounting debt, major inflation, and delayed military divestment.

A closer look at how the levers of state—and powerful friends—could help Erdogan win his toughest election yet.

Washington may be tempted to give up after the country’s democratic backsliding; instead, it should take targeted, supportive actions that have worked in other cases.

A rare public opinion poll in Bahrain, commissioned by the Washington Institute and conducted in March/April by an independent regional firm, shows surprisingly high levels of popular approval for Russia—including its war aims in Ukraine.

Separating propaganda from truth has always been a challenge in places like Syria, but it is increasingly so in Washington as well given the rise of myriad forms of misinformation.

A near-term breakthrough may be unlikely, but President Biden is well positioned to apply his energy toward negotiating a historic deal that establishes peace and advances American interests.

تغییر رژیم آرام و متمرکز بر تسخیر موسسات تحت حمایت آمریکا و تغییر آنها بر ضد منافع ایالات متحده نشانگر تهدیدی است که گروه‌های باانگیزه و دارای منابع مالی علیه دموکراسی‌های در حال توسعه ایجاد می‌کنند.

Watch as experts discuss National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's keynote address to the Institute's 2023 Soref Symposium.

By suspending the Sadrist Movements activities, Sadr hopes to prevent the growth of a new Mahdist splinter group that threatens his religious and political credibility.

The tensions between Turkey and the PUK are not new, though recent actions by both sides have exacerbated the situation despite shared economic interests.

Their willingness to stand against perceived threats to their democratic institutions is laudable, but allowing Israel to drift toward a de facto “one-state” peace solution poses serious threats of its own.

Chinese influence extends beyond the economic sphere, posing serious threats to Egypt's security interests and relationship with the United States.

Examining CENTCOM’s mix of unilateral and partnered operations against senior ISIS officials in Syria provides useful insights into the group’s current capabilities and the focus of U.S. attention in the region.

In an ungrudging division of labor, senior militia figure Akram Kaabi is being built up by other factions as the main anti-U.S. "resistance" leader in Iraq.