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All Policy Analysis by پاتريك كلاوسون
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Brief Analysis
Why a New Security Council Resolution about Iraq?
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) members are discussing in the corridors two proposals for a new Iraq resolution designed to restart UN inspections of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by offering Saddam Husayn the prospect of some relief from sanctions. The details of the two competing proposals are important
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Arab World, Iran, and the Kosovo Crisis
Arab Middle Eastern reactions to the Kosovo conflict can be described as a deafening quiet. Arabs are generally distraught by the plight of the ethnic Albanian Kosovars and tend to blame Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic for their suffering. Many Arabs feel that the Kosovars are not pious Muslims, however, so
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Dollars and Diplomacy?
The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on the Arab-Israeli Peace Process
The United States devotes considerable effort -- more than $5 billion a year in aid, as well as many hours urging senior Arab and European officials to attend high-level meetings -- to promoting the twin goals of economic prosperity and economic cooperation among states and peoples in the Levant. U.S
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Domestic Infighting Worsens
Tomorrow's municipal elections, the first ever in Iran, have been the occasion for the latest round in the infighting between Iranian hardliners and moderates. That infighting has gotten progressively worse since President Muhammad Khatami took office in August 1997, and it has stymied progress on pressing economic problems and on
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Assessing Proposals for Changing UN Restrictions on Iraq
In the last two weeks, France, the United States, and Saudi Arabia have all proposed changes in UN restrictions on Iraq. While all would have the effect of cutting Saddam some slack, intriguingly, the Saudi plan is about as good as the American. The French Proposal. The French proposal is
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The 1999 Saudi Budget:
Reform in the Face of Acute Problems
The decline in world oil prices has hit Saudi Arabia hard. The benchmark Saudi crude, Arabian light, fell from $17 per barrel in 1997 to little more than $11 in 1998. Gross domestic product (GDP) declined in 1998 to about $125 billion. That translates into a per capita income of
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
How to Use the Bombing to Advance Long-Term U.S. Goals for Iraq
The current bombing campaign against Iraq is clearly not going to solve all U.S. problems with Iraq. The issue of the day is then: how can the bombing be used to advance long-term U.S. goals? Ratchet up the Pressure. The United States seems intent on convincing Saddam Husayn that the
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
U.S. Economic Initiatives and the Peace Process
On November 3, 1998, Patrick Clawson, director for research at The Washington Institute, and Zoe Danon Gedal, a Soref research fellow at the Institute, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum on the topic of their forthcoming book Dollars and Diplomacy: The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on Arab-Israeli Negotiations. The
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Show of Farce:
Why Our Iraq Policy Won't Work
The Clinton administration's Iraq policy has been to "keep Saddam in his box" by doing everything possible to keep U.N. inspectors and international economic sanctions in place. But actually Saddam has boxed us in. True, the sanctions must be having some effect, because Saddam complains about them so much. Indeed
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Crisis with Iraq:
What Now? What's Next?
Three factors were cited by U.S. officials as reasons not to strike Iraq, none of which is convincing. First was the fear that air strikes would signal the death knell of UNSCOM. In fact, experience shows that Saddam has repeatedly backed down when threatened, and does not take risks when
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Michael Eisenstadt
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Implications of Bombing Iraq
The Clinton administration is debating how to respond to Iraq's August 5 limits on the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) and its October 31 cessation of any cooperation with UNSCOM. To understand why force is being considered again requires examining each of the major problems facing the United
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Cheap Sheikh:
Hard Times in the Persian Gulf
Renowned for their secrecy and bland public pronouncements, Saudi Arabia's leaders almost never make news. But, when the kingdom's number-two man, Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, visited Washington last month, he dropped a bombshell. Meeting with executives from seven major U.S. oil companies, Abdullah shocked them by asking for
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Iran Under Khatami:
A Political, Economic, and Military Assessment
Introduction Muhammad Khatami's surprise victory in the May 23, 1997, Iranian presidential election generated much enthusiasm at home and much interest abroad. For Iranians, the massive popular mandate -- Khatami received 70 percent of the vote with a nearly 90 percent turnout -- showed their disillusionment with the ruling establishment
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
What Do the Sudan/Afghanistan Strikes Harbinger?
The U.S. cruise missile attacks on the Sudanese chemical weapons precursor plant and the Afghanistan terrorist camps raises questions about the future direction of U.S. policy on several fronts: the emphasis on state linkages to terrorism, the means used to counter proliferation, the role of law enforcement and military force
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Alan Makovsky
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Iraq Strategy Review:
Options for U.S. Policy
On July 7, 1998, Patrick Clawson, research director at The Washington Institute; Andrew Parasiliti, director of programs at the Middle East Institute; and Kenneth Pollack, research fellow at The Washington Institute addressed a Special Policy Forum marking the release of Iraq Strategy Review, an Institute study outlining the different possible
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Patrick Clawson
Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
U.S. Military Aid to Egypt:
Assessment and Recommendations
This is the second in a two-part series on the topic "U.S. Aid to Egypt: Building a Partnership for the 21st Century." Read Part I. The question of U.S. military aid to Egypt poses an unusual policy dilemma: should it go up or down? On one hand, Egypt's strategic location
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
U.S. Economic Aid to Egypt:
Designing a New, Pro-Growth Package
This is the first in a two-part series on the topic "U.S. Aid to Egypt: Building a Partnership for the 21st Century." Read Part II. For the first time in nearly twenty years, the United States will soon revamp foreign aid to Israel and Egypt. Given the centrality of these
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Iraq Strategy Review:
Options for U.S. Policy
Iraq has been a continuing problem for U.S. policy, as was brought home during the November 1997-February 1998 crisis. Whereas much dissatisfaction was heard about the current policy, the popular debate exposed the difficulties with alternative courses of action. The challenge posed by Iraq for U.S. policy has some enduring
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Khobar Towers' Lessons for Counterterrorism and Gulf Policy
Two years after the death of 19 Americans in the June 25, 1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers in Dhahran, it is appropriate to consider the quandaries for U.S. terrorism policy that the bombing exposed. The hope that U.S. investigators could identify the perpetrators of bombings overseas as readily as
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
EU vs. Israel on Trade:
Peace Process Posturing or Commercial Dispute?
The Council of Ministers from European Union (EU) governments is due to meet June 29 to discuss the recommendations of the EU Commission -- the Brussels bureaucracy -- to impose restrictions on trade with Israel. At stake is more than an arcane trade dispute. Because of this matter, Manuel Marin
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Patrick Clawson
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