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All Policy Analysis by Patrick Clawson
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Brief Analysis
Iran:
Part of the Problem or Part of the Solution?
British foreign secretary Jack Straw arrives in Tehran today to "build alliances with every country that we can." In fact, Iran is the acid test of U.S. resolve to fulfill the goal set by President George Bush in his speech to Congress, namely, "From this day forward, any nation that
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Khatami's New Term and ILSA's New Life
August 5 is an auspicious day for Iran, as it marks the inauguration of Mohammed Khatami's second four-year term as president of that country. It is also the day that the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA) would have expired, had its renewal not received an overwhelming vote last week by 96-2
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iraq Policy:
Thinking Beyond Smart Sanctions
August 2, 2001 marks eleven years since Saddam Husayn invaded Kuwait. Given Washington's unsuccessful effort to win UN Security Council approval for a reformed sanctions regime, the Bush administration must now reconsider the options for Iraq policy. Focus on Arms Control? While Russia's opposition nixed the imposition of "smart controls"
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Khatami's Re-Election and Iran's Pressing Problems
Tomorrow, Mohammed Khatami is sure to be re-elected president of Iran. But that is not likely to make much difference to Iranians, as Khatami has no coherent program for any of Iran's three pressing problems: economic revitalization, political liberalization, and reduction of security threats. Even though Khatami has shown disinterest
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Do Iran's Presidential Elections Matter?
Today's decision by Iranian president Mohammad Khatami to run for re-election was more important than the actual election on June 8, which he is sure to win. But neither matters nearly as much as the crucial question for Iran's future namely, will hardliners let the formal government rule or will
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Powell to the Middle East:
Assessing the Key Elements of Iraq Policy
On February 26, U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell begins his tour of Iraq's Arab neighbors just as UN secretary-general Kofi Annan is scheduled to hold discussions with Iraqi foreign minister Mohammad Said al-Sahhaf in New York. Key themes in these meetings will be the return of UN weapons inspectors
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Can Iraq Reconstitute the Arab Eastern Front against Israel?
While President Bill Clinton is laying out his plans for peace in the Middle East, others are talking about their readiness for war. Iraqi dictator Saddam Husayn’s defiant January 6 Army Day speech supporting the Palestinian revolt followed on the December 31 four-hour "Al Aqsa Call" military parade in Baghdad
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Washington Concerns about Saudi Oil
Saudi decision-makers would be well advised to examine what lies behind the deep U.S. concern about oil prices. America is more worried about a politically-motivated crisis than about the usual market manipulation, writes Patrick Clawson, director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The smaller part of
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iraq:
A Blast from the Past?
By participating in the Arab summit that ended yesterday, Iraq made a giant step towards ending its political isolation; it had been frozen out of pan-Arab meetings since 1990. Importantly, increasing international cooperation with Baghdad is by no means the product of any Iraqi moderation. To the contrary: Iraqi president
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran:
Dialogue Abroad, Violence at Home
Iranian President Muhammad Khatami's international charm offensive continues at the UN Millennium Summit, where today he hosts a "Dialogue of Civilizations" and tomorrow he speaks to the General Assembly. Meanwhile, at home, Khatami faces violence rather than dialogue, raising doubts about Iran's peaceful reform. The Iranian Charm Offensive. Last week
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Patrick Clawson
Ray Takeyh
Articles & Testimony
Containing Iran:
The Necessity of U.S. Sanctions
Sanctions on Iran have made an important contribution to U.S. security by depriving the Iranian government of the revenue it could otherwise have used for a military build-up. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Iran announced agreements with various suppliers to purchase many more weapons than it actually acquired
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Diplomatic Action Needed in Lebanon
Without U.S. diplomatic intervention, the most likely outcome of last week's Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is that some radical group — acting under Syrian and Iranian pressure — will launch cross-border attacks on Israel. This could lead Israel to respond with intense artillery fire and air strikes, possibly against Syrian
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Tightening World Oil Markets Increase Political Risk
A robust world economy is driving up oil consumption, while supply is growing slowly. The global safety margin, from oil stocks and excess capacity, is shrinking. By later this year, world oil markets could be in a rather delicate balance--a balance vulnerable to a political shock, such as might be
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Who Will Control the Shore and Waters of the Galilee?
Press reporting out of the Middle East in the wake of the failed Geneva summit between Presidents Bill Clinton and Hafiz al-Asad suggests that the territorial dispute between Damascus and Jerusalem has widened and that issues pertaining to the ownership of the Sea of Galilee (also known as the Kinneret
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Frederic Hof
Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
The Last Arab-Israeli Battlefield?
Implications of an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon
An Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon would mark a major change in the status quo that has prevailed in the Middle East for the last twenty years. This will create both risks and opportunities for the peoples of the region and for U.S. policy. What happens after an Israeli withdrawal is
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Advancing U.S. Interests and Better Relations with Iran
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's March 17 speech to the Conference on American-Iranian Relations was a milestone in the slowly improving bilateral ties. Although a number of useful ideas were broached, on balance the speech missed a golden opportunity to make common cause with reformist supporters of Iranian president Muhammad
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
A Look at Sanctioning Iraq
The U.N. economic sanctions on Iraq, now more than nine years old, continue to elicit strong objections from those who view them as unjust. Only two weeks ago, Hans von Sponeck, the U.N. humanitarian coordinator for Iraq, resigned. The sanctions, he said, create a "true human tragedy that needs to
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Let Iran Change on Its Own
The parliamentary elections in Iran produced a massive pro-reform vote. The obvious question is what can the United States expect and how should it respond. Paradoxically, the answers are, expect little change soon on the issues of most concern, and do little so as not to be counterproductive. Background. The
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Jordan's Economy under Abdullah:
One Year On
After leaving Davos as one of the stars of the World Economic Forum this week, King Abdullah returns to a country that, in 1999, registered its fourth negative real growth rate in a row. Indeed, from the beginning of his rule, Jordan's new monarch has recognized that confronting Jordan's deep
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Syria's Economy:
Prospects for Peace, Aid, and Market Reform
DANIELA GRESSANI In many ways, Syria's economy is not very different from that of other countries in the region. Oil is important, accounting for 60 percent of exports. Agriculture is more important than might be expected on the basis of natural endowment: it contributes about 20 percent of the gross
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Patrick Clawson
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