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All Policy Analysis by Patrick Clawson
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Brief Analysis
The U.S. Draft Treaty for Syria-Israel Peace:
A Textual Analysis
After more than a week of negotiations in Shepherdstown, W.Va., the "working draft" of the Syria-Israel peace treaty reported in yesterday's Ha'aretz notes only one area of seemingly irreconcilable difference between the two parties--over the scope of the demilitarized zone separating the two sides. As currently worded, the text neither
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Mideast Update:
Report from a Trip to Israel, Jordan, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority
ROBERT SATLOFF General Observations Meetings with the four leaders--Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak, Jordan's King Abdullah II, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, and Palestinian Authority (PA) chairman Yasir Arafat--underscore the vitality of regional leadership. All seemed healthy, engaged, self-assured, and in command. Barak is clearly a man with a mission, convinced
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Robert Satloff
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Assessing Iranian Reportage on U.S.-Iran Contacts
For the last two weeks, the major Iranian newspapers have been full of reports about official contacts between the U.S. and Iranian governments. These reported contacts include a U.S. request that Tehran hand over individuals now in Iran whom the U.S. government believes are responsible for the deaths of nineteen
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Stealth Bombing:
Our Silent War in Iraq
What if they waged a war and no one noticed? In 1999, American and British pilots have bombed Iraq three times a week, hitting 360 targets with 1,100 bombs during more than 10,000 sorties. Yet the Anglo-American war over Iraq does not often make the front pages of even the
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Student Demonstrations in Iran:
What Next?
Iran's complexities often lead it to surprise observers. The most recent surprise came not from the hardliners of the regime, but from the most active part of Iran's nascent civil society-students. Who Are These Students? Because of a quota system designed to purge the student body after the Islamic revolution
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
How the U.S. Can Bolster Reform in Iran
Student demonstrations in Iran this week have exposed the unpopularity of the Islamic Republic, which, among other problems, imposes medieval restrictions on women and has presided over the halving of the average Iranian's income. The question for the U.S. is how best to support the forces of change. European governments
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy toward Iraq
Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommitte on Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs MR. CLAWSON: Thank you. It's an honor to be here with you today. I've submitted a statement for the record. And if you'll permit me, I would like just to summarize that briefly. SEN. BROWNBACK
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Why a New Security Council Resolution about Iraq?
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) members are discussing in the corridors two proposals for a new Iraq resolution designed to restart UN inspections of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by offering Saddam Husayn the prospect of some relief from sanctions. The details of the two competing proposals are important
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Arab World, Iran, and the Kosovo Crisis
Arab Middle Eastern reactions to the Kosovo conflict can be described as a deafening quiet. Arabs are generally distraught by the plight of the ethnic Albanian Kosovars and tend to blame Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic for their suffering. Many Arabs feel that the Kosovars are not pious Muslims, however, so
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Dollars and Diplomacy?
The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on the Arab-Israeli Peace Process
The United States devotes considerable effort -- more than $5 billion a year in aid, as well as many hours urging senior Arab and European officials to attend high-level meetings -- to promoting the twin goals of economic prosperity and economic cooperation among states and peoples in the Levant. U.S
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Domestic Infighting Worsens
Tomorrow's municipal elections, the first ever in Iran, have been the occasion for the latest round in the infighting between Iranian hardliners and moderates. That infighting has gotten progressively worse since President Muhammad Khatami took office in August 1997, and it has stymied progress on pressing economic problems and on
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Assessing Proposals for Changing UN Restrictions on Iraq
In the last two weeks, France, the United States, and Saudi Arabia have all proposed changes in UN restrictions on Iraq. While all would have the effect of cutting Saddam some slack, intriguingly, the Saudi plan is about as good as the American. The French Proposal. The French proposal is
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The 1999 Saudi Budget:
Reform in the Face of Acute Problems
The decline in world oil prices has hit Saudi Arabia hard. The benchmark Saudi crude, Arabian light, fell from $17 per barrel in 1997 to little more than $11 in 1998. Gross domestic product (GDP) declined in 1998 to about $125 billion. That translates into a per capita income of
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
How to Use the Bombing to Advance Long-Term U.S. Goals for Iraq
The current bombing campaign against Iraq is clearly not going to solve all U.S. problems with Iraq. The issue of the day is then: how can the bombing be used to advance long-term U.S. goals? Ratchet up the Pressure. The United States seems intent on convincing Saddam Husayn that the
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
U.S. Economic Initiatives and the Peace Process
On November 3, 1998, Patrick Clawson, director for research at The Washington Institute, and Zoe Danon Gedal, a Soref research fellow at the Institute, addressed the Institute's Special Policy Forum on the topic of their forthcoming book Dollars and Diplomacy: The Impact of U.S. Economic Initiatives on Arab-Israeli Negotiations. The
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Show of Farce:
Why Our Iraq Policy Won't Work
The Clinton administration's Iraq policy has been to "keep Saddam in his box" by doing everything possible to keep U.N. inspectors and international economic sanctions in place. But actually Saddam has boxed us in. True, the sanctions must be having some effect, because Saddam complains about them so much. Indeed
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Crisis with Iraq:
What Now? What's Next?
Three factors were cited by U.S. officials as reasons not to strike Iraq, none of which is convincing. First was the fear that air strikes would signal the death knell of UNSCOM. In fact, experience shows that Saddam has repeatedly backed down when threatened, and does not take risks when
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Michael Eisenstadt
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Implications of Bombing Iraq
The Clinton administration is debating how to respond to Iraq's August 5 limits on the United Nations Special Commission on Iraq (UNSCOM) and its October 31 cessation of any cooperation with UNSCOM. To understand why force is being considered again requires examining each of the major problems facing the United
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Cheap Sheikh:
Hard Times in the Persian Gulf
Renowned for their secrecy and bland public pronouncements, Saudi Arabia's leaders almost never make news. But, when the kingdom's number-two man, Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, visited Washington last month, he dropped a bombshell. Meeting with executives from seven major U.S. oil companies, Abdullah shocked them by asking for
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Iran Under Khatami:
A Political, Economic, and Military Assessment
Introduction Muhammad Khatami's surprise victory in the May 23, 1997, Iranian presidential election generated much enthusiasm at home and much interest abroad. For Iranians, the massive popular mandate -- Khatami received 70 percent of the vote with a nearly 90 percent turnout -- showed their disillusionment with the ruling establishment
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
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