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All Policy Analysis by پاتريك كلاوسون
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Brief Analysis
Eyewitness Perspectives Assessing Progress in Iraq (Part II):
Politics, Transition, and the Kurds
On February 9, 2004, Patrick Clawson, Soner Cagaptay, Jeffrey White, and Jonathan Schanzer addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. All four were part of the Institute fact-finding delegation tasked with conducting an independent survey of local security conditions and emerging political currents in Iraq. The delegation traveled throughout Iraq
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Patrick Clawson
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Reversing the Tragedy of Weak Arab Development
Friends of the Arabs can but mourn the transformation of the Middle East from an advanced and powerful region arguably ahead of Europe to a backward state. It is sobering to realize that as recently as the 1930s, there was no Arab development deficit. At that time, Alexandria was more
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Trading Terrorists:
Al-Qaeda in Iran for Mujahedin in Iraq?
On December 9, 2003, the Iraqi Governing Council announced that it would expel the Iranian opposition group Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) from Iraq. Reacting to this decision, Paul Bremer, administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority, recently told Iraqi television that MEK members should be settled in other countries with the help
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Raymond Tanter
Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Impact of World Bank Loans to Iran
Testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services, Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, and Technology Two important considerations in judging U.S. reaction to World Bank lending to Iran are: how important is World Bank lending be to Iran, and how would lending to Iran fit with World
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iranian-European Nuclear Deal:
An Achievement with a Potential Poison Pill
The October 21 deal between Iran and the European trio of Britain, France, and Germany has the potential to significantly reduce the risk of Iran producing a nuclear weapon from highly enriched uranium (HEU)—assuming the accord is implemented strictly and on a tight timetable. Yet, HEU is only one of
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Economics of Iraqi Security (Part III):
Financing Reconstruction
This PolicyWatch is the third in a three-part series written to coincide with the Madrid Donors Conference on Iraq, which begins on October 24, 2003. Read Part I and Part II (both by Michael Knights). Although economics is not the driving force behind Iraqi resistance to the U.S.-led coalition, restoring
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
How Iraqis View U.S. Role Is Key to Evaluating Progress in Iraq
Reports about U.S. casualties inevitably take top billing in media coverage of postwar Iraq. Yet, assessing how Iraqis themselves view the current situation is, arguably, just as important for evaluating progress in Iraq. Two recent public opinion polls have provided systematic data about Iraqi views, and this data in turn
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Evaluating the Options Regarding the Iranian Nuclear Threat
Testimony before the U.S.-Israel Joint Parliamentary Committee The United States has for years judged Iran to be the world's foremost state-sponsor of terrorism. While the most direct way to sever the link between Tehran and its main terror arm -- Hizbollah -- is via Damascus, Washington is vigilant about Iran's
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Gaining Support for Action on Iran's Nuclear Program
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose report about Iran leaked out yesterday, will soon have to decide whether to declare Iran noncompliant with its obligations under the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). What the world does about Iran's nuclear program will largely determine the future of
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Reading the Popular Mood in Iran
July 9 is the fourth anniversary of the student-sparked mass protests that erupted in Iran in 1999. New protests this July could test Washington no less than Tehran. Will the U.S. government side openly and publicly with the freedom-minded students against not only the unelected hardliners, but also the ineffectual
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran:
Demonstrations, Despair, and Danger
In the early morning hours of June 11, according to Reuters, 3,000 demonstrators near Tehran University shouted, "Political prisoners must be freed!" This incident comes shortly after the issuance of two letters sharply attacking the present system -- one signed by more than one-third of the Majlis and one by
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
A Terrorist U.S. Ally?
One of the stranger news items coming out of Iraq these days concerns an Iranian opposition group called the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK). It's a U.S. government-designated terrorist organization that coalition forces first bombed from the air, then signed a cease-fire agreement with -- and finally disarmed and protected. Say that
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Defining the Postwar Priorities in the Middle East
Peter David: Robert Satloff said he wanted a British ally to be present at this meeting. So in one sense, I owe my presence here to the work of the Seventh Armored Brigade, the British unit that captured Basra. The way the brigade captured Basra was quite unusual. They approached
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Patrick Clawson
David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
First Steps to Remake Iraq
What to do in Iraq postwar could easily become the next crisis within the Western alliance. Canada has the credibility as a close friend of the United States, a strong supporter of international institutions, and an experienced peacekeeper to play an important role in urging all sides to make the
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
A View From Tehran:
War and the Challenges in the Post-Saddam Middle East
RAY TAKEYH Iran is facing its most acute crisis since the 1979 revolution. Over the past six years, political institutions have played a key role in opening the path to reform. Yet, the success of President Muhammad Khatami's efforts to involve the Iranian people in electoral processes and political institutions
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Ray Takeyh
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The State Department's 'No Dominoes' Report and Prospects for Democratization in a Post-Saddam Middle East
According to a classified report drafted by the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and leaked to the Los Angeles Times on March 14, overthrowing Saddam Husayn will not lead to a wave of successful democratic revolutions against Middle Eastern autocracies. Numerous press accounts describe the report --
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iraq Crisis after the Blix Report:
Diplomatic and Military Options
On January 27, Hans Blix, director of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), delivered a straightforward report to the Security Council regarding Iraqi compliance with arms resolutions. Twelve years after taking up the obligation to disarm under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 687, Baghdad still does not genuinely
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Patrick Clawson
Philip Gordon
Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Tighten the Finger on the Trigger
Whenever he's been cornered over the last decade, Saddam Hussein has demonstrated his skill under pressure at stalling, dividing and diverting the West by appearing to cooperate. His strategy has been one of token progress cloaking substantial delays. "Time is working for us," he said in a rare interview last
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Shaping a New UN Draft Resolution on Iraq
The United States and Britain are consulting with the other three permanent members of the UN Security Council (Russia, France, and China) before introducing a new draft resolution on Iraq. Much attention has been given to whether the resolution will explicitly authorize the use of force. At least as important
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Turkish Election Preview:
Fragmentation of the Center
The people of Turkey go to the polls on November 3, 2002, amid a great deal of political and economic uncertainty. Possible outcomes range from a coherent pro-European Union (EU) coalition to a dramatic change following an outright electoral victory by a party attractive to Islamist voters. In Turkey, the
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Patrick Clawson
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