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السياسة الأمريكية

Policy Analysis on السياسة الأمريكية

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Brief Analysis
Jordan:
Extended Crisis, Heightened Threat
The threat to Jordan's stability is the hidden crisis within the current Gulf conflict. King Hussein's regime is likely to survive, but its fall would bring dire consequences to the region. Jordan's role as a buffer amid powerful, quarreling neighbors has made it a keystone of regional stability. But the
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Post-Thanksgiving Agenda:
U.S. and Soviet Policy
U.S. Policy President Bush has made important strides in tackling the Gulf crisis during the past two weeks, consolidating his coalition and preparing the groundwork for Security Council approval of the use of force. He has begun to create an offensive option that will support coercive diplomacy or ensure military
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Shamir to Saddam:
"Read My Lips"
If it comes to war in the Gulf, Israel may well be dragged in. Saddam Hussein has repeatedly threatened that his first missiles would be aimed at Israel. By involving Israel in this way, Saddam Hussein might hope to unite the Arab coalition behind him. Unlike all other forces confronting
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  • Zeev Schiff
Brief Analysis
Scaring Saddam:
The Message Must Be Consistent
President Bush's decision to double U.S. force deployments in the Persian Gulf was designed to scare Saddam Hussein. Instead, it has frightened the American people and threatened his coercive diplomacy strategy. The President faces a difficult dilemma. He cannot persuade Saddam Hussein of American resolve without a credible threat of
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Brief Analysis
War Goals for the West
With war in the Gulf increasingly probable the time has come to consider war goals with a long-term focus. Realization of such near-term objectives as military victory, decapitation of Iraq's military, restoration of Kuwaiti sovereignty and creation of a new security structure may actually accelerate radical processes in the Middle
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Brief Analysis
Iraq's Endgame Strategy
How to respond to the growing threat of war emanating from the United States presents Saddam Hussein with one of the major decisions of his career. It seems logical, but not inevitable, that he will now try to stall for time by offering to negotiate about a possible Iraqi withdrawal
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Gulf War Clock Is Ticking:
U.S. and Soviet Policy
U.S. Policy The United States will either go to war or will have to begin withdrawing ground forces from the Gulf by next spring. This is the most likely conclusion available from an analysis of the U.S. decision to double ground force deployments in the Persian Gulf. President Bush's decision
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Turkey:
Supporting United States but not Ready to Fight
Secretary of State James Baker visited Turkey today, the last stop on his regional tour, to thank that country for its "steadfast" support and warn that the United States "cannot rule out the possible use of force." Turkish officials said there had been no talk about Turkey's opening a second
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The UN, Israel, and the Gulf Crisis
This week the United States assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council. The first priority on its agenda will be a resolution authorizing force if necessary to reverse Saddam Hussein's aggression. But the Security Council's attention is likely to be diverted by a PLO-led effort to launch a debate
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Brief Analysis
The Allies and the Baker Trip
Secretary of State James Baker's Middle East trip is designed to firm up and define an anti- Iraq coalition held together by U.S. power, Saudi money, and Egyptian management of inter- Arab politics, while Israeli and Turkish power constrain Iraq. Recently, Syria has been the alignment's weak link, but political
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Growing Prospects for War
The Bush administration's reported decision to send 100,000 more U.S. troops is a turning point in the Gulf crisis. When they arc in position -- in two to three months -- the United States and its allies will be able, for the first time, not only to defend Saudi Arabia
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Brief Analysis
Coalition Coercion:
Will It Work?
American strategy in the Gulf crisis has now entered a new phase of "coercive diplomacy." Sanctions backed by force have a better chance to coerce Saddam Hussein to leave Kuwait than the alternative of a long-range, sanctions-only strategy. For the strategy to work, however, three basic and difficult requirements will
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Brief Analysis
The Embargo and the Iraqi Military
With the prospect of 100,000 more U.S. troops in the Gulf and a heightened chance of war, some argue that the anti-Iraq embargo will reduce Baghdad's fighting ability. Unfortunately, this is wishful thinking. Any loss is likely to be far smaller than expected. In addition to stopping Iraq from acquiring
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Brief Analysis
How Vulnerable is Iraq's Economy?
A sanction-induced economic crisis cannot be counted on to force Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, much less out of office. Iraq has good prospects of surviving sanctions through the end of 1991 by a combination of tightening consumer's belts and loosening the socialist tourniquet now tied around the Iraqi private
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Primakov Mission to Baghdad and Washington:
What Happened?
Last week's meeting between President Bush and Yevgeny Primakov, Mikhail Gorbachev's special emissary to Iraq, generated much speculation about a possible Soviet diplomatic initiative to end the Gulf crisis. Those expectations were overblown. While Primakov provided Bush a first-hand account of his discussions in Baghdad with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Is There a "Limited Force" Option?
For now, the Bush administration eschews the use of force while preparing for its use. But what will happen if a consensus develops that President Bush's diplomatic and economic approach is ineffective while a full-scale attack on Iraqi forces remains unattractive? As an additional buildup of U.S. forces gets underway
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Brief Analysis
Doubts about the Diplomatic Strategy
As the President nears his moment of decision in the Gulf crisis, he is being urged by many policy experts to adopt a long-term, diplomacy-only strategy for dealing with Iraq's aggression. But Secretary of State Baker's dismissal of "partial solutions," the President's refusal to rule out force, and reports of
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Brief Analysis
The Threatened Anti-Iraq Coalition
In the Persian Gulf today, as so often in international affairs, keeping one's options open seems an attractive alternative. In the long run, however, this is really an illusory choice since the course of events may be determined by decisions taken by others or unforeseen complications. To govern, as the
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Brief Analysis
All Politics Are Local:
Soviet Constraints in the Gulf Crisis
The growing linkage between Soviet domestic and foreign policy is producing dramatic changes in its Middle East positions. The Soviet regime is playing a key role on some aspects of the Gulf crisis, but its freedom of action is quite constrained in others because of the internal struggle for power
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Measuring Saddam's Arab Support
The recent violence in Jerusalem has again raised fears that Iraq can utilize the Arab-Israeli conflict to break the coalition opposed to its aggression. An accurate assessment of Saddam Hussein's support among non-Iraqi Arabs is critical to understanding this question, as well as the impact of the Gulf crisis on
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  • Barry Rubin

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Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East

The Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East focuses on the region as a setting for heightened competition between the United States and other world powers, such as China and Russia.

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Featured experts

Robert Satloff - source: The Washington Institute
روبرت ساتلوف
روبرت ساتلوف يشغل منصب المدير التنفيذي لـ"سيغال" في معهد واشنطن منذ عام 1993.
Ambassador Dennis Ross
دينس روس
السفير دينس روس هو مستشار وزميل "وليام ديفيدسون" المتميز في معهد واشنطن والمساعد الخاص السابق للرئيس أوباما.
Michael Singh
مايكل سينغ
مايكل سينغ هو زميل أقدم في زمالة “لين- سويغ” والمدير الإداري في معهد واشنطن.
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