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السياسة الأمريكية

Policy Analysis on السياسة الأمريكية

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Measuring Saddam's Arab Support

The recent violence in Jerusalem has again raised fears that Iraq can utilize the Arab-Israeli conflict to break the coalition opposed to its aggression. An accurate assessment of Saddam Hussein's support among non-Iraqi Arabs is critical to understanding this question, as well as the impact of the Gulf crisis on

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Barry Rubin

Is the United States Vulnerable to Saddam?

As the United States enters the third month of its deployment in the Persian Gulf, there is increasing concern about what Saddam Hussein could do to undermine American will or reverse Iraqi diplomatic isolation. Given the array of forces against it and faith in an ability to outlast the world

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Moscow and the Gulf Crisis:

New Thoughts about New Thinking

The visit of Soviet special envoy Yevgeny Primakov to Baghdad today in search of a diplomatic resolution of the Gulf crisis is another sign of Moscow's growing interest in the crisis as a catalyst for a new Soviet role in the Middle East. Last Sunday's decision to establish diplomatic relations

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John Hannah

Iran: Which Side Is It On?

Of all the states in the Middle East, Iran's policy has been the most confusing and mysterious. Yet a close examination shows that Tehran has followed a consistent, predictable, attitude toward the Gulf crisis. From Tehran's standpoint, the current situation is the obverse of that prevailing during the eight-year Iran-Iraq

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Barry Rubin

The Iraq Crisis and Regional Arms Control

One of the most controversial statements during this crisis was Secretary of State James Baker's call for a new Persian Gulf security framework. If Saddam Hussein and/or Iraq's military might survive this confrontation, local states will face continued threats. For them to cooperate with the United States now they must

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Moscow in the Middle East:

The Impact of New Thinking

Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze is using the Gulf crisis as a catalyst for farreaching changes in Moscow's Middle East policy. Moscow is putting the emphasis on improving relations with the West and with the wealthy Persian Gulf states at the expense of Arab radicals. Shevardnadze's UN speech was remarkable

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John Hannah

Will the United States Go to War?

Impatience and doubts about the slow-working process of diplomacy and economic sanctions has led many to call for quick military action against Iraq. While the United States could eventually prevail in such a conflict, the anticipated high cost in American casualties will make President Bush less eager to pursue a

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Who Lost Jordan?

By the time Washington finishes arguing about who lost Kuwait, a new debate may have to be joined about the failure of U.S. policy toward Jordan. The Kuwait crisis is drawing King Hussein into Saddam Hussein's orbit with profound consequences for the stability of the Middle East heartland and the

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Washington Institute Conference:

Perspectives on the Gulf Crisis

The Fifth Annual Policy Conference of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, held September 14-16, brought out a number of new ideas and perspectives on the Persian Gulf crisis. These included important points about administration strategy, the attitudes of Arab states and Israel, the time frame for various tactics

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Barry Rubin

In-Depth Reports

The Gulf Crisis:

War of Peace in the Middle East?

Keynote addresses by Moshe Arens, Richard Haass, Saud Nasir Al-Sabah, and Paul Wolfowitz.

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In-Depth Reports

The Bush Administration's Strategy toward the Gulf Crisis

On September 14-16, 1990, The Washington Institute held its fifth annual Policy Conference at the Wye Plantation. The following is an edited transcript of one speaker's remarks. Read a summary of the full conference. We are now seeing not just the outlines of a post-war security order, but the outlines

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A New Security Structure for the Persian Gulf:

What Does the United States Have in Mind?

Secretary of State Baker's idea of developing "a new security structure" for the Middle East has been the subject of much attention. What specifically does the U.S. have in mind? The most honest answer is not much. It appears that, in raising the idea, Secretary Baker was for the most

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John Hannah

From Competition to Cooperation:

The Helsinki Communique in Perspective

Did President Bush reverse long-standing policy by inviting the USSR to play a role in Middle East peacemaking? No. In fact, the summit outcome points to two other conclusions. First, the Bush administration has been willing from the outset to give the Soviet Union a role in Middle East peacemaking

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Baker's Damascus Trip:

Is Syria America's New Iraq?

It is surprising how few Arabs and Arab states are supporting Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. As Secretary of State James Baker's visit to Damascus on Thursday shows, the anti-Iraq coalition includes the Arab world's three other most important powers: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. This triumverate marks the Arab world's

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Barry Rubin

Chemical Warfare and the Persian Gulf States

Iraq's chemical weapons pose two major questions for U.S. policy today: • How threatening are these arms to U.S. forces? • What should the United States and its allies do to neutralize these weapons if Iraq's current capacities survive the crisis? Iraq is now the world's largest producer of chemical

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Can the United States Liberate Kuwait Today?

Many commentators and policy-makers in Washington are calling for U.S. military action to dislodge Iraq from Kuwait. While this option may be attractive in principle, today it is impossible in practice. Indeed, according to Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, the U.S. military still has some way to go before it can

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Toward the Helsinki Summit:

Where Does Moscow Stand?

Sunday's Helsinki summit between Presidents Bush and Gorbachev offers an opportunity to consolidate impressive U.S.-Soviet coordination that has arisen in response to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, as well as to avoid future misunderstandings on the crisis that Iraq might seek to exploit. Such coordination is a key pillar in Washington's

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John Hannah

The U.S. Strategy Debate over the Gulf

The danger of a U.S.-Iraq military confrontation may be receding for the time being. But now the debate in the administration, Congress, and the public faces a new issue: will the Bush Administration's multilateral strategy prevent it from taking unilateral military action if Saddam Hussein refuses to withdraw from Kuwait

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Meeting in Amman:

The Perils of Negotiation

As UN Secretary-General Perez de Cuellar begins diplomatic contacts in Amman with Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz, the Gulf crisis moves, at least temporarily, into a phase of negotiations. But negotiations can be as dangerous as battle -- leading to escalation, defeat, or even disaster. U.S. policy must be flexible

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Barry Rubin

In-Depth Reports

Keynote Address

Superpower relations in the Middle East is an especially timely and provocative topic -- timely because superpower relations clearly are changing, and provocative because the consequences from those changes are far from self-evident. On one hand, the lessening of the tensions between the superpowers, especially the declining role of the

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Supported by the

Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East

The Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East focuses on the region as a setting for heightened competition between the United States and other world powers, such as China and Russia.

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روبرت ساتلوف

روبرت ساتلوف يشغل منصب المدير التنفيذي لـ"سيغال" في معهد واشنطن منذ عام 1993.

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دينس روس

السفير دينس روس هو مستشار وزميل "وليام ديفيدسون" المتميز في معهد واشنطن والمساعد الخاص السابق للرئيس أوباما.

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مايكل سينغ

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