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العراق

Policy Analysis on العراق

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Brief Analysis
The Shevardnadze Resignation: Implications for the Gulf Crisis
Eduard Shevardnadze's dramatic resignation as Soviet foreign minister is bad news for the Gulf crisis: His departure will be welcomed by Saddam Hussein and much-lamented by James Baker. Shevardnadze's Role Since the crisis' first days, when he stood shoulder to shoulder with the Secretary of State to condemn Iraq's invasion
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Air Power and the Gulf Crisis
How important is air power? This question dominates the current debate about U.S. military options against Iraq, and has a significance for the shape of U.S. forces following the current crisis. Though the military significance of U.S. air power is uncertain, the United States should fully exploit this capability if
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Brief Analysis
Saddam's Strategy:
Turning the U.S. Hedgehog into a Fox?
All observers agree that the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait caught the United States by surprise. By the same token, the U.S. reaction to the invasion was equally, if not more, unexpected by Saddam Hussein. Given the policy of appeasement the Bush Administration pursued toward Iraq prior to August 2, Saddam
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Brief Analysis
Iraq Thinks It Has Already Won
In London a few days ago, Iraqi officials approached two bankers who have previously done business with Baghdad, seeking to arrange future ventures. "But," asked the British financiers, "what about the crisis and the embargo?" "The crisis is already over," replied the Iraqis. And, they insist, Iraq has won. To
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The U.S.-Iraq Talks:
Dealing with Saddam
The upcoming U.S.-Iraq talks on the Gulf crisis pose a real challenge to President Bush and Secretary of State James Baker. Paradoxically, the more eager the United States appears for a peaceful solution to the crisis, the less chance there is of achieving the objective of Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Impact of Sanctions on Iraq
Economic sanctions are making Iraq poorer day by day. The Iraqi economy is being hollowed out. The diet of the Iraqi people has already suffered markedly, with a drop of at least 25 percent in calories consumed. Yet despite all this, it would be wrong to jump to the conclusion
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Allies Nervous Over U.S.-Iraq Talks
Much of the Middle East is reacting with anxiety and confusion to President Bush's proposal for top level talks between the United States and Iraq. Whatever rationales Washington has for taking this step, many in the region perceive it as the beginning of U.S. concessions to Saddam Hussein. As soon
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Libya and the Gulf Crisis:
The Strangest Bedfellow
As yesterday's vote in the Security Council again demonstrates, the cohesion of the anti-Iraq coalition is far stronger than most observers had originally predicted. Even Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi, the most maverick, anti-Western Arab leader, has been cooperating with the coalition, respecting the UN sanctions against Iraq and calling for
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Nuclear Program:
The Key Questions
President Bush and other senior administration officials have focused attention on the threat posed by a nuclear Iraq to America's interests in the Middle East. It is generally agreed that Iraq can develop a sizeable nuclear military capability within the next decade. But the significance of this program in both
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Brief Analysis
Congress and the UN Vote:
Sending a Mixed Signal to Saddam
Thursday's UN Security Council vote authorizing the use of force to effect Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait constitutes a major step toward war in the Gulf. The effect of the resolution is to deliver an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein: "leave Kuwait by January 15 or else you will soon be forced
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Brief Analysis
Jordan:
Extended Crisis, Heightened Threat
The threat to Jordan's stability is the hidden crisis within the current Gulf conflict. King Hussein's regime is likely to survive, but its fall would bring dire consequences to the region. Jordan's role as a buffer amid powerful, quarreling neighbors has made it a keystone of regional stability. But the
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Post-Thanksgiving Agenda:
U.S. and Soviet Policy
U.S. Policy President Bush has made important strides in tackling the Gulf crisis during the past two weeks, consolidating his coalition and preparing the groundwork for Security Council approval of the use of force. He has begun to create an offensive option that will support coercive diplomacy or ensure military
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Shamir to Saddam:
"Read My Lips"
If it comes to war in the Gulf, Israel may well be dragged in. Saddam Hussein has repeatedly threatened that his first missiles would be aimed at Israel. By involving Israel in this way, Saddam Hussein might hope to unite the Arab coalition behind him. Unlike all other forces confronting
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  • Zeev Schiff
Brief Analysis
Scaring Saddam:
The Message Must Be Consistent
President Bush's decision to double U.S. force deployments in the Persian Gulf was designed to scare Saddam Hussein. Instead, it has frightened the American people and threatened his coercive diplomacy strategy. The President faces a difficult dilemma. He cannot persuade Saddam Hussein of American resolve without a credible threat of
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Brief Analysis
War Goals for the West
With war in the Gulf increasingly probable the time has come to consider war goals with a long-term focus. Realization of such near-term objectives as military victory, decapitation of Iraq's military, restoration of Kuwaiti sovereignty and creation of a new security structure may actually accelerate radical processes in the Middle
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Brief Analysis
Iraq's Endgame Strategy
How to respond to the growing threat of war emanating from the United States presents Saddam Hussein with one of the major decisions of his career. It seems logical, but not inevitable, that he will now try to stall for time by offering to negotiate about a possible Iraqi withdrawal
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Gulf War Clock Is Ticking:
U.S. and Soviet Policy
U.S. Policy The United States will either go to war or will have to begin withdrawing ground forces from the Gulf by next spring. This is the most likely conclusion available from an analysis of the U.S. decision to double ground force deployments in the Persian Gulf. President Bush's decision
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Turkey:
Supporting United States but not Ready to Fight
Secretary of State James Baker visited Turkey today, the last stop on his regional tour, to thank that country for its "steadfast" support and warn that the United States "cannot rule out the possible use of force." Turkish officials said there had been no talk about Turkey's opening a second
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The UN, Israel, and the Gulf Crisis
This week the United States assumes the presidency of the UN Security Council. The first priority on its agenda will be a resolution authorizing force if necessary to reverse Saddam Hussein's aggression. But the Security Council's attention is likely to be diverted by a PLO-led effort to launch a debate
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Brief Analysis
The Allies and the Baker Trip
Secretary of State James Baker's Middle East trip is designed to firm up and define an anti- Iraq coalition held together by U.S. power, Saudi money, and Egyptian management of inter- Arab politics, while Israeli and Turkish power constrain Iraq. Recently, Syria has been the alignment's weak link, but political
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  • Barry Rubin

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