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العراق

Policy Analysis on العراق

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Brief Analysis
Post War Issues #3:
The Arab-Israeli Peace Process
The staggering allied victory in the Gulf War has been followed by presidential statements from Washington and Paris about the need to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict. On the face of it, however, the war against Saddam appears to have made a solution to the Palestinian problem more necessary and yet
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In-Depth Reports
The Poor Man's Atomic Bomb?
Biological Weapons in the Middle East
Saddam Hussein has claimed that Iraq possesses ballistic missiles capable of carrying biological weapons. This dramatic, if ambiguous, statement only served to dramatize earlier assertions by American officials that Iraq was indeed capable of waging biological warfare. As troubling as is the immediate threat from Baghdad, American officials, however, believe
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Brief Analysis
Post War Issues #2:
When Can the Troops Come Home?
With the suspension of hostilities in the Gulf War, when can American troops begin to come home? Assuming that a formal cease-fire goes into effect within the coming days, the need for the bulk of American forces in the theater will disappear. However, the United States will require a considerable
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Brief Analysis
Post War Issues:
The Future of Iraq
With the liberation of Kuwait almost completed and Saddam Hussein's army of occupation now firmly in the vice of allied forces, it is high time to contemplate the future of Iraq. If Saddam Hussein continues to rule, he will be weak and embattled. His military impotence has been demonstrated, pricking
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Brief Analysis
Gorbachev's Choice
By issuing his own cease-fire requirements to Saddam Hussein, President Bush has effectively rendered Mikhail Gorbachev's peace plan -- even today's "revised" version -- dead on arrival. In doing so, he is also sending the Soviet President a very tough message: The United States, which has sacrificed blood and treasure
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
What If Saddam Accepts?
If Saddam Hussein accepts the Soviet peace proposal, President Bush will face a difficult dilemma. The President will have to choose between accepting terms for an Iraqi withdrawal which could well leave Saddam in power with much of his military capability intact and rejecting the Soviet terms with all the
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Brief Analysis
The Iraqi Artillery Threat
Artillery has historically been the principal cause of casualties on the modern battlefield, and Iraq's large, advanced, and diverse inventory of artillery pieces is one of the major strengths of its ground forces. Given Saddam Hussein's strategy of inflicting maximum casualties on U.S. forces, artillery will likely play a central
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The New Importance of Air Defense
While the Defense Department's Fiscal Year 1992 budget was largely drawn up prior to the Gulf crisis, in at least one area DoD has tried to learn an early lesson from the war. The United States in the future will have to devote increasing attention to the air defense mission
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Brief Analysis
Can Air Power Win the War?
After nearly three weeks of sustained air operations, and over 45,000 sorties (half being offensive missions), the principal goal of the war -- the liberation of Kuwait -- remains unrealized. The allied air campaign against Iraqi forces in the Kuwaiti theater of operations has several major objectives: • The destruction
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Prosecuting the Gulf War:
Refuting the Myths
Three dangerous myths concerning the Gulf war require urgent examination and refutation: • The removal of Saddam Hussein from power would end the war and the threat Iraq poses to the region. • The anti-Saddam alliance must be careful lest Iraq's collapse destroy the regional balance of power. • Iraq
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Iran and the Gulf:
Can Saddam Drag It In?
The arrival of large numbers of Iraqi planes in Iran is almost certainly another effort by Saddam Hussein to reduce Iraq's isolation and widen the war. As he explained to CNN on January 28, he views Iran as a "fellow Muslim nation" which shares his view of the confrontation as
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Republican Guard
Iraq's elite Republican Guard -- the best armed and trained unit in the army -- comprises the mainstay of its ground force's offensive capability, and the principal pillar of Saddam Hussein's regime. Republican Guard units in southern Iraq and Kuwait also form the backbone of Iraq's defenses there. Their destruction
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Assessing Iraq's Al-Husayn Missiles
The launch of more than two dozen Al-Husayn missiles during the opening days of the current war has emphasized the importance of missiles in Iraqi military strategy. Striking military and civilian targets in Israel and Saudi Arabia could pose severe political problems for the United States. Israel could be dragged
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Brief Analysis
The Air Campaign against Iraq:
A Preliminary Assessment
At 2:35 a.m. Baghdad time, allied aircraft initiated the first phase of what will probably be a prolonged and intense air campaign against Iraq. Up to 1000 U.S. and 200 allied combat aircraft may have participated in the initial strike. In all, nearly 1700 allied aircraft are in theater, versus
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
A Quick and Decisive War?
At midnight, the January 15 deadline for Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait will expire without the slightest hint that Saddam Hussein intends to leave. President Bush's "gut instinct" and the conventional wisdom of Washington's experts have both been confounded. Confronted by a massive array of force, Saddam Hussein has not decided
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Brief Analysis
Taking Out Baghdad's Missiles
If the U.S.-led coalition goes to war against Iraq, one of its primary objectives will be the elimination of Iraq's surface-to-surface missiles. However, even a skillfully planned and executed air strike is unlikely to destroy all of Iraq's missiles, which threaten civilian population centers throughout the region and large military
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Negotiating with Iraq:
Changing the Balance of Risks
When Secretary of State James Baker meets Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz in Geneva on Wednesday, hope remains that Iraq will finally agree to withdraw from Kuwait. But throughout the Gulf crisis, Western observers have tended to underestimate Saddam Hussein's willingness to go to war and overestimate his willingness to
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Iraq Deserted
Today's summit meeting between the leaders of Egypt, Syria, Libya, and Sudan highlights an important trend emerging in the Gulf crisis: support in the Arab world for the U.S.-led anti-Iraq coalition is growing, while Iraq finds itself increasingly deserted. Pro-Iraqi demonstrations have dwindled; the cheers for Saddam Hussein have died
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Prospects for an Iraq-Israel Confrontation
Saddam Hussein's explicit threats against Israel have drawn renewed attention to the prospects for an Iraqi-Israeli confrontation. Though this cannot be ruled out, it seems unlikely that Israel and Iraq will become engaged in hostilities early on in a conflict because neither country would find fighting the other to be
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Brief Analysis
Negotiating in "Good Faith"
In voting for UN Security Council Resolution 681 yesterday, the Bush Administration made its first payoff for passage of Security Resolution 678 authorizing the use of force to oust Saddam Hussein. The Gang of Four -- Cuba, Malaysia, Yemen, and Colombia -- had threatened to hold up Resolution 678 by
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