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TWI Arabic: اللغة العربية Fikra Forum

دول الخليج العربي

Policy Analysis on دول الخليج العربي

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Brief Analysis
Russian and French Policy Toward Iraq:
Emerging Differences with the United States
President Clinton's visit to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia tomorrow provides an opportunity to reflect upon the impact of Saddam Hussein's decision to deploy some 70,000 troops to the Iraqi-Kuwaiti border. Two results among several stand out: Strong, forceful U.S. action will deter the Iraqi dictator. The stronger, more forceful and
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Brief Analysis
UN Sanctions and Iraq's Saber-Rattling
Through inflammatory rhetoric and troop movements in southern Iraq near the Kuwaiti border, Saddam Hussein is once again provoking crisis and possible confrontation in the Persian Gulf. Using some of the strongest language since the Gulf War, Baghdad has warned that "every party will bear the consequences" if the United
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In-Depth Reports
After King Fahd:
Succession in Saudi Arabia (2nd ed.)
The ruling family of Saudi Arabia, one of the United States' most important allies in the Middle East, is heading for a crisis of leadership. Despite its modern infrastructure, paid for by huge revenues from oil exports, the kingdom's political system remains rooted in tribal structures that have scarcely evolved
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  • Simon Henderson
In-Depth Reports
The Economy of Saudi Arabia:
Troubled Present, Grim Future
The kingdom of Saudi Arabia faces a grim economic future. Contrary to predictions in the late 1970s and early 1980s of rising prices for Middle Eastern oil, world oil demands and prices have followed a downward trend since 1981, resulting in a reduction in Saudi oil revenues. Since 1983 Saudi
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Brief Analysis
A Saudi Disaster Story:
Yemen's Unity by Force
The capture last week of the port city of Aden by forces loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen marked the end of the short-lived rebellion by secessionist supporters of Vice President Ali Salem al-Beidh. The outcome is a shock to the balance of power in the Arabian peninsula
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Implications of Economic Decline in Saudi Arabia
On April 14, 1994, Dr. Eliyahu Kanovsky, a professor of economics at Bar Illan University and a leading authority on Middle East economics, addressed a session of The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Dr. Kanovsky discussed Saudi Arabia's severe economic crisis, and its implications for domestic politics and stability. The following
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Articles & Testimony
Deja Vu All Over Again? An Assessment of Iran's Military Buildup
In 1989, following a costly eight-year war with Iraq, Iran initiated a major military buildup intended to transform it into a regional power and rebuild its ravaged armed forces. Iran's buildup, coupled with indications of increased activism in its foreign policy -- including efforts to undermine the Arab-Israeli peace process
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Brief Analysis
A Review of Saddam's Iraq:
Three Years after the Gulf War, Part II: Social and Economic Problems
Despite Iraq's surface stability, Saddam Hussein is struggling under the weight of the international sanctions regime, as evidenced by recent threats by Iraqi leaders of possible retaliatory attacks against the West unless the UN approves a clear procedure for lifting the sanctions. In addition to challenges from the northern Kurds
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Brief Analysis
A Review of Saddam's Iraq:
Three Years after the Gulf War
Tariq Aziz's efforts this week to persuade the UN to quicken the pace of weapons-monitoring procedures come amid a reassessment of Iraqi strategy in response to the international sanctions regime. In the three years since the end of the Gulf War, Iraq has managed to rebuild most of its damaged
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Brief Analysis
Gulf Security:
The Qatari View
On January 25, 1994, His Excellency Sheikh bin Jassim bin Jabr al-Thani, foreign minister of Qatar, addressed an off the record session of The Washington Institute's Policy Forum on regional security in the Persian Gulf. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Security Arrangements in the Gulf and
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In-Depth Reports
The Economic Consequences of the Persian Gulf War:
Accelerating OPEC's Demise
Of the many strategic interests that United States and its allies have in the Middle East, surely one of the most crucial is securing energy supplies from the region. The Gulf War of 1991 demonstrated the importance of Middle East oil in the international community’s strategic calculus. Since the oil
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Brief Analysis
Visiting Kuwait
Though Iraq wreaked enormous devastation on Kuwait's oil industry toward the end of the war, Kuwaitis can hope for a fairly rapid recovery after an initial period of sorting out. What may not return to normal is Kuwait's relationship with its Palestinian community and with Jordan. Kuwait and other Gulf
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Brief Analysis
Saddam's Strategy:
Turning the U.S. Hedgehog into a Fox?
All observers agree that the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait caught the United States by surprise. By the same token, the U.S. reaction to the invasion was equally, if not more, unexpected by Saddam Hussein. Given the policy of appeasement the Bush Administration pursued toward Iraq prior to August 2, Saddam
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Brief Analysis
War Goals for the West
With war in the Gulf increasingly probable the time has come to consider war goals with a long-term focus. Realization of such near-term objectives as military victory, decapitation of Iraq's military, restoration of Kuwaiti sovereignty and creation of a new security structure may actually accelerate radical processes in the Middle
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Brief Analysis
Coalition Coercion:
Will It Work?
American strategy in the Gulf crisis has now entered a new phase of "coercive diplomacy." Sanctions backed by force have a better chance to coerce Saddam Hussein to leave Kuwait than the alternative of a long-range, sanctions-only strategy. For the strategy to work, however, three basic and difficult requirements will
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Brief Analysis
How Vulnerable is Iraq's Economy?
A sanction-induced economic crisis cannot be counted on to force Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, much less out of office. Iraq has good prospects of surviving sanctions through the end of 1991 by a combination of tightening consumer's belts and loosening the socialist tourniquet now tied around the Iraqi private
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Doubts about the Diplomatic Strategy
As the President nears his moment of decision in the Gulf crisis, he is being urged by many policy experts to adopt a long-term, diplomacy-only strategy for dealing with Iraq's aggression. But Secretary of State Baker's dismissal of "partial solutions," the President's refusal to rule out force, and reports of
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Brief Analysis
All Politics Are Local:
Soviet Constraints in the Gulf Crisis
The growing linkage between Soviet domestic and foreign policy is producing dramatic changes in its Middle East positions. The Soviet regime is playing a key role on some aspects of the Gulf crisis, but its freedom of action is quite constrained in others because of the internal struggle for power
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Moscow and the Gulf Crisis:
New Thoughts about New Thinking
The visit of Soviet special envoy Yevgeny Primakov to Baghdad today in search of a diplomatic resolution of the Gulf crisis is another sign of Moscow's growing interest in the crisis as a catalyst for a new Soviet role in the Middle East. Last Sunday's decision to establish diplomatic relations
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Washington Institute Conference:
Perspectives on the Gulf Crisis
The Fifth Annual Policy Conference of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, held September 14-16, brought out a number of new ideas and perspectives on the Persian Gulf crisis. These included important points about administration strategy, the attitudes of Arab states and Israel, the time frame for various tactics
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  • Barry Rubin

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