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دول الخليج العربي

Policy Analysis on دول الخليج العربي

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In-Depth Reports
The Economic Consequences of the Persian Gulf War:
Accelerating OPEC's Demise
Of the many strategic interests that United States and its allies have in the Middle East, surely one of the most crucial is securing energy supplies from the region. The Gulf War of 1991 demonstrated the importance of Middle East oil in the international community’s strategic calculus. Since the oil
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Brief Analysis
Visiting Kuwait
Though Iraq wreaked enormous devastation on Kuwait's oil industry toward the end of the war, Kuwaitis can hope for a fairly rapid recovery after an initial period of sorting out. What may not return to normal is Kuwait's relationship with its Palestinian community and with Jordan. Kuwait and other Gulf
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Brief Analysis
Saddam's Strategy:
Turning the U.S. Hedgehog into a Fox?
All observers agree that the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait caught the United States by surprise. By the same token, the U.S. reaction to the invasion was equally, if not more, unexpected by Saddam Hussein. Given the policy of appeasement the Bush Administration pursued toward Iraq prior to August 2, Saddam
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Brief Analysis
War Goals for the West
With war in the Gulf increasingly probable the time has come to consider war goals with a long-term focus. Realization of such near-term objectives as military victory, decapitation of Iraq's military, restoration of Kuwaiti sovereignty and creation of a new security structure may actually accelerate radical processes in the Middle
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Brief Analysis
Coalition Coercion:
Will It Work?
American strategy in the Gulf crisis has now entered a new phase of "coercive diplomacy." Sanctions backed by force have a better chance to coerce Saddam Hussein to leave Kuwait than the alternative of a long-range, sanctions-only strategy. For the strategy to work, however, three basic and difficult requirements will
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Brief Analysis
How Vulnerable is Iraq's Economy?
A sanction-induced economic crisis cannot be counted on to force Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait, much less out of office. Iraq has good prospects of surviving sanctions through the end of 1991 by a combination of tightening consumer's belts and loosening the socialist tourniquet now tied around the Iraqi private
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Doubts about the Diplomatic Strategy
As the President nears his moment of decision in the Gulf crisis, he is being urged by many policy experts to adopt a long-term, diplomacy-only strategy for dealing with Iraq's aggression. But Secretary of State Baker's dismissal of "partial solutions," the President's refusal to rule out force, and reports of
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Brief Analysis
All Politics Are Local:
Soviet Constraints in the Gulf Crisis
The growing linkage between Soviet domestic and foreign policy is producing dramatic changes in its Middle East positions. The Soviet regime is playing a key role on some aspects of the Gulf crisis, but its freedom of action is quite constrained in others because of the internal struggle for power
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Moscow and the Gulf Crisis:
New Thoughts about New Thinking
The visit of Soviet special envoy Yevgeny Primakov to Baghdad today in search of a diplomatic resolution of the Gulf crisis is another sign of Moscow's growing interest in the crisis as a catalyst for a new Soviet role in the Middle East. Last Sunday's decision to establish diplomatic relations
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Washington Institute Conference:
Perspectives on the Gulf Crisis
The Fifth Annual Policy Conference of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, held September 14-16, brought out a number of new ideas and perspectives on the Persian Gulf crisis. These included important points about administration strategy, the attitudes of Arab states and Israel, the time frame for various tactics
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  • Barry Rubin
In-Depth Reports
The Gulf Crisis:
War of Peace in the Middle East?
Keynote addresses by Moshe Arens, Richard Haass, Saud Nasir Al-Sabah, and Paul Wolfowitz.
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In-Depth Reports
Kuwait's Approach to the Gulf Crisis
On September 14-16, 1990, The Washington Institute held its fifth annual Policy Conference at the Wye Plantation. The following is an edited transcript of one speaker's remarks. Read a summary of the full conference. The situation inside Kuwait is indescribable. Iraq has isolated Kuwait from the civilized world; the 1.5
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Brief Analysis
A New Security Structure for the Persian Gulf:
What Does the United States Have in Mind?
Secretary of State Baker's idea of developing "a new security structure" for the Middle East has been the subject of much attention. What specifically does the U.S. have in mind? The most honest answer is not much. It appears that, in raising the idea, Secretary Baker was for the most
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  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
From Competition to Cooperation:
The Helsinki Communique in Perspective
Did President Bush reverse long-standing policy by inviting the USSR to play a role in Middle East peacemaking? No. In fact, the summit outcome points to two other conclusions. First, the Bush administration has been willing from the outset to give the Soviet Union a role in Middle East peacemaking
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Brief Analysis
Chemical Warfare and the Persian Gulf States
Iraq's chemical weapons pose two major questions for U.S. policy today: • How threatening are these arms to U.S. forces? • What should the United States and its allies do to neutralize these weapons if Iraq's current capacities survive the crisis? Iraq is now the world's largest producer of chemical
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Brief Analysis
Can the United States Liberate Kuwait Today?
Many commentators and policy-makers in Washington are calling for U.S. military action to dislodge Iraq from Kuwait. While this option may be attractive in principle, today it is impossible in practice. Indeed, according to Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, the U.S. military still has some way to go before it can
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Brief Analysis
The U.S. Strategy Debate over the Gulf
The danger of a U.S.-Iraq military confrontation may be receding for the time being. But now the debate in the administration, Congress, and the public faces a new issue: will the Bush Administration's multilateral strategy prevent it from taking unilateral military action if Saddam Hussein refuses to withdraw from Kuwait
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Brief Analysis
Meeting in Amman:
The Perils of Negotiation
As UN Secretary-General Perez de Cuellar begins diplomatic contacts in Amman with Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz, the Gulf crisis moves, at least temporarily, into a phase of negotiations. But negotiations can be as dangerous as battle -- leading to escalation, defeat, or even disaster. U.S. policy must be flexible
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  • Barry Rubin
In-Depth Reports
OPEC Ascendant?
Another Case of Crying Wolf
A moderate run-up in oil prices in 1989 has led many oil forecasters to project large price hikes through the 1990s and a far more powerful OPEC cartel; in short another oil shock in the mid-1990s. Recent warnings from forecasters are reminiscent of the alarmist—and mistaken—predictions that followed the oil
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In-Depth Reports
Behind the Riot in Mecca
The recent rioting and deaths in Mecca have shocked Muslims and confused the world. The hostility which led to bloodshed in the sacred city was prompted in part by the political tensions in the Gulf. But the tragedy is primarily one episode in a lengthy history of pilgrimage conflict between
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  • Martin Kramer

Pagination

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