الديمقراطية والإصلاح

Policymakers must prepare for the likelihood that Egyptian instability will continue for some time, rendering Cairo unable to continue its historic role as a major U.S. strategic partner.

New unrest in prospect after high-court rulings appear to back military council.

Nothing captured the imagery of change in the Middle East more than last year's demonstrations in Tahrir Square that brought down Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's president for 30 years. The sense of hope and possibility that seemed so alive in Tahrir Square made everyone in the Middle East believe there truly

Technically, Egypt's political transition is on schedule. The first round of the presidential election was held May 23-24, the second round is set to occur June 16-17, a winner will be announced by June 21, and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which has ruled the country since

The results of the first round of voting in Egypt's presidential elections has yielded a choice in the second round between two starkly different men -- former Mubarak-era prime minister and air force general Ahmed Shafik, and Muslim Brotherhood official Mohammad Morsi. For Washington, less important than which man wins

The upheavals of the last 18 months have transformed an already difficult regional landscape into perhaps the most inhospitable strategic environment in modern history.

There are increasing calls for international intervention in Syria after this weekend's massacre in Houla, where Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces murdered more than 100 civilians. Obstacles to intervention remain, however, especially concern that the opposition to Assad's regime is dominated by religious fundamentalists. Until recently, for example, the Syrian

In light of the Houla tragedy and other indicators of growing violence, the UN observer mission in Syria will likely be withdrawn, spurring the regime to escalate its offensive operations even further.

The Arab Awakening—in which local youths accomplished through weeks of nonviolent action what al-Qaeda had failed to do through years of terrorism and bloodshed—has created significant opportunities to counter radical Islamist propaganda and leverage financial tools against violently repressive regimes. Yet it has also strained the intelligence community's resources, forcing