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سوريا

Policy Analysis on سوريا

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Brief Analysis
Syria's Regional Relationships:
Past and Present
Geopolitical considerations have determined Syria's regional alliances. The underlying concern for every Syrian leader in making these alliances has been the attainment and the retention of power. No Syrian leader has been more successful at reaching this goal than Hafiz al-Asad. What makes this achievement even more impressive is that
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Brief Analysis
Turkish-Syrian Relations:
A Crisis Delayed?
Despite unconfirmed reports of Syrian willingness to expel PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and close PKK bases, Turkish-Syrian tensions are likely to persist; Syria's track record of reneging on pledges to cease supporting the PKK will make Ankara skeptical about the durability of any agreement. For this reason, Turkish military action
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  • Alan Makovsky
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Brink of Peace:
The Israeli-Syrian Negotiations
Yitzhak Rabin was elected in 1992 as prime minister of Israel based on his pledge that he could deliver an autonomy agreement with the Palestinians and that there would be no major deal with Syria. Nevertheless, between 1993 and 1996, two dramatic opportunities arose for an Israel-Syrian peace agreement; both
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  • Itamar Rabinovich
In-Depth Reports
Decision Making in Asad's Syria
Pages: 45
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Brief Analysis
Removing Syria from the Narcotics List:
A Signal to Damascus?
In a region where subtle messages often serve as political discourse, the Clinton Administration may be communicating to Syria that the United States is changing its approach to Damascus. One step the Administration is considering is especially likely to send such a signal: declaring that Syria is no longer a
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In-Depth Reports
The Israel-Lebanon Monitoring Group:
An Operational Review
Created after Israel's 1996 Operation Grapes of Wrath, the Israel-Lebanon Monitoring Group (ILMG) was intended to help prevent another escalation to large-scale military operations. Renewed clashes in Lebanon in 1997 placed the body under considerable scrutiny. This paper provides an overview of the ILMG, its activities, and the participants' views
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Brief Analysis
Lebanon, the Peace Process, and U.S. Policy
The current standstill in the peace process has created a situation where Lebanon's problems might be viewed as one of the most important components to the overall conclusion of the Middle East peace process. Lebanon now holds the dubious distinction of being the last "satellite" state in the world. Today
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Brief Analysis
An Iraqi-Syrian Entente?
Prospects and Implications
On June 2, after a seventeen-year closure, Syria opened its border at three points to its neighbor and long-time rival Iraq. The move, coming amidst unusual reciprocal visits of Iraqi and Syrian business delegations to each others' capitals, suggests an economic marriage of convenience. There is a possibility, however, that
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Brief Analysis
Syria and the Peace Process:
Looking to Re-Engage?
So far, 1997 has not been a good year for Syrian President Hafiz al-Assad. It began with a deadly New Year's eve bombing in the heart of Syria's capital, which was followed soon after by the Palestinians' first signed agreement with a Likud government. The Hebron accord marked a reversal
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Brief Analysis
Peace and the Syrian Dilemma
Two weeks ago, on the anniversary of the 1973 October War, Syrian Defense Minister Mustafa Tlas told an interviewer that it was a "Zionist fabrication" that "President al-Asad had an opportunity to regain the Golan but refused to do so." Tlas' remarks are only the most recent in a series
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  • Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
Syria's 'War Option':
Assessing the Lessons from West Bank/Gaza Riots
As Israelis and Palestinians meet at the Erez junction, Syrian President Hafiz al-Asad will be watching closely. Before the West Bank/Gaza rioting, Syrian troop movements reminded Israelis of the 1973 Yom Kippur surprise attack, prompting a war scare. In the wake of the riots, Prime Minister Netanyahu came to Washington
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  • Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
Parliamentary Elections in Lebanon:
A Final Assessment
While the last two weeks have focused on the Israeli-Palestinian clashes, the Washington summit and the "war scare" with Syria, inside Lebanon the main political drama concerned the concluding rounds of parliamentary elections. These, as expected, produced a Syria-friendly legislature. Initial euphoria in some quarters about the early losses suffered
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Brief Analysis
Parliamentary Elections in Lebanon:
An Early Assessment
BEIRUT—While headline news was being made in Iraq and the Erez checkpoint, a less-noticed political drama has been unfolding in another corner of the Middle East, Lebanon. Here, Lebanese are in the midst of a five-week election five electoral districts each voting on subsequent Sundays that could have an important
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Brief Analysis
Understanding Syria:
Decisionmaking in the Assad Regime
Hafez al-Assad's decision to join the peace process in 1991 was perhaps one of the most difficult decisions of his entire political career. Many analysts do not see this as a strategic decision, however it does reflect a major change in Assad's policy toward Israel. The mere fact that Assad
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Brief Analysis
The Arab Summit:
Syria's Qualified Success
In its first summit in nearly six years -- and first since the Madrid process began -- the Arab League responded to the election of Binyamin Netanyahu by laying down firm peace process markers for Israel and, implicitly, the Clinton Administration. While calling for a resumption of negotiations on all
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  • Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Hizballah Operations:
Past Patterns, Future Prospects
An attack by Hizballah on an outpost of the South Lebanon Army last week underscores both the positive and negative outcomes of the written "understanding" negotiated by Secretary of State Warren Christopher -- namely, while northern Israel and Lebanese civilian targets should be spared further attacks, armed conflict between Israel
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Changing Assad's Incentive Structure:
Christopher in the 'Lion's Den'
As foreign ministers of seven countries descended upon Damascus and Operation Grapes of Wrath shifted into low gear, katyushas continued to fall on northern Israel over the weekend, bringing the count to nearly 500 over the past twelve days. Apparently, none of the seven -- American, French, Russian, Italian, Spanish
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  • Robert Satloff
  • Alan Makovsky
In-Depth Reports
Partner or Pariah?
Attitudes toward Israel in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan
The Arab-Israeli conflict is generally considered a political and military confrontation between Israeli and neighboring Arab countries. Negotiations and agreements between the two sides therefore tend to concentrate on official matters such as diplomatic recognition, security measures, and other formal aspects of interstate relations. Unlike their Israeli counterparts, Arab citizens
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  • Hilal Khashan
In-Depth Reports
Syria Beyond the Peace Process
While the pursuit of Arab-Israeli peace justly remains the dominant U.S. interest in the Levant, it is important to assess Syrian politics through a wider political lens. Since coming to power in 1970, Assad has imposed a brutal, authoritarian police state that has brought an unprecedented measure of stability to
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Brief Analysis
Beyond the Golan:
Prospects for Syrian-Turkish Confrontation
Even as attention is focused on the outcome of Syrian-Israeli talks at Wye Plantation, potentially ominous developments are taking place on Syria's northern border, where the regime of Hafiz al-Assad has upped its challenge to Turkey. While tensions between the two states go back a half century, simmering largely beyond
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