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سوريا

Policy Analysis on سوريا

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Brief Analysis
Syrian Media and Government on Barak and the Peace Process:
On the Record
Since the election of Ehud Barak as Israeli prime minister, considerable attention has focused on the renewed prospects of an Israeli-Syrian peace. There may be some significant signs that Damascus is preparing the Syrian people for peace and normalization with Israel, but a review of the state-controlled Syrian media presents
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Brief Analysis
U.S. Interests in Syria-Israel and Lebanon-Israel Peace Agreements
Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak has identified peace with Syria and Lebanon as a vital strategic objective and, shortly before leaving for Washington, met with Golan residents to remind them that he believes he was elected to achieve that goal. An understanding between Barak and President Bill Clinton about how
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Rise of Bashar al-Asad
March 8, 1999, marks the thirty-sixth anniversary of the Syrian "revolution" -- the coup d'etat that installed the Ba'th Party as the preeminent force in Syrian politics. This anniversary comes just one month after Syrian president Hafiz al-Asad was re-elected to his fifth seven-year term of office, which will end
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  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Syria's Asad:
The Approach of a Fifth Term of Office
On February 8, 1999, the citizens of Syria will go to the polls to approve Syrian president Hafiz al-Asad's candidacy for a fifth seven-year term of office as president. The previous four terms of office -- twenty-eight years of rule since he was elected president in February 1971, after a
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Articles & Testimony
Defusing the Turkish-Syrian Crisis:
Whose Triumph?
Seemingly on the verge of hostilities with Turkey in mid-October 1998, President Hafez Assad of Syria did what almost nobody expected. He backed down, and quickly. Assad pledged to meet most -- though not all -- Turkish demands that he end support for the Turkish-Kurdish separatist group known as the
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  • Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Lebanon's Lahoud:
A New Start?
The November 24 inauguration of General Emile Lahoud as Lebanon's president is generating optimism in a country which, for fifteen violent years, bled itself relentlessly. The civil war of 1975-1990 blackened Lebanon's name internationally and gutted the country internally. Lebanon's "reconstruction" has entailed considerable corruption and public indebtedness, as well
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  • Frederic Hof
Brief Analysis
Syria's Regional Relationships:
Past and Present
Geopolitical considerations have determined Syria's regional alliances. The underlying concern for every Syrian leader in making these alliances has been the attainment and the retention of power. No Syrian leader has been more successful at reaching this goal than Hafiz al-Asad. What makes this achievement even more impressive is that
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Brief Analysis
Turkish-Syrian Relations:
A Crisis Delayed?
Despite unconfirmed reports of Syrian willingness to expel PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and close PKK bases, Turkish-Syrian tensions are likely to persist; Syria's track record of reneging on pledges to cease supporting the PKK will make Ankara skeptical about the durability of any agreement. For this reason, Turkish military action
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  • Alan Makovsky
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Brink of Peace:
The Israeli-Syrian Negotiations
Yitzhak Rabin was elected in 1992 as prime minister of Israel based on his pledge that he could deliver an autonomy agreement with the Palestinians and that there would be no major deal with Syria. Nevertheless, between 1993 and 1996, two dramatic opportunities arose for an Israel-Syrian peace agreement; both
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  • Itamar Rabinovich
In-Depth Reports
Decision Making in Asad's Syria
Pages: 45
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Brief Analysis
Removing Syria from the Narcotics List:
A Signal to Damascus?
In a region where subtle messages often serve as political discourse, the Clinton Administration may be communicating to Syria that the United States is changing its approach to Damascus. One step the Administration is considering is especially likely to send such a signal: declaring that Syria is no longer a
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In-Depth Reports
The Israel-Lebanon Monitoring Group:
An Operational Review
Created after Israel's 1996 Operation Grapes of Wrath, the Israel-Lebanon Monitoring Group (ILMG) was intended to help prevent another escalation to large-scale military operations. Renewed clashes in Lebanon in 1997 placed the body under considerable scrutiny. This paper provides an overview of the ILMG, its activities, and the participants' views
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Brief Analysis
Lebanon, the Peace Process, and U.S. Policy
The current standstill in the peace process has created a situation where Lebanon's problems might be viewed as one of the most important components to the overall conclusion of the Middle East peace process. Lebanon now holds the dubious distinction of being the last "satellite" state in the world. Today
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Brief Analysis
An Iraqi-Syrian Entente?
Prospects and Implications
On June 2, after a seventeen-year closure, Syria opened its border at three points to its neighbor and long-time rival Iraq. The move, coming amidst unusual reciprocal visits of Iraqi and Syrian business delegations to each others' capitals, suggests an economic marriage of convenience. There is a possibility, however, that
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Brief Analysis
Syria and the Peace Process:
Looking to Re-Engage?
So far, 1997 has not been a good year for Syrian President Hafiz al-Assad. It began with a deadly New Year's eve bombing in the heart of Syria's capital, which was followed soon after by the Palestinians' first signed agreement with a Likud government. The Hebron accord marked a reversal
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Brief Analysis
Peace and the Syrian Dilemma
Two weeks ago, on the anniversary of the 1973 October War, Syrian Defense Minister Mustafa Tlas told an interviewer that it was a "Zionist fabrication" that "President al-Asad had an opportunity to regain the Golan but refused to do so." Tlas' remarks are only the most recent in a series
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  • Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
Syria's 'War Option':
Assessing the Lessons from West Bank/Gaza Riots
As Israelis and Palestinians meet at the Erez junction, Syrian President Hafiz al-Asad will be watching closely. Before the West Bank/Gaza rioting, Syrian troop movements reminded Israelis of the 1973 Yom Kippur surprise attack, prompting a war scare. In the wake of the riots, Prime Minister Netanyahu came to Washington
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  • Kenneth Pollack
Brief Analysis
Parliamentary Elections in Lebanon:
A Final Assessment
While the last two weeks have focused on the Israeli-Palestinian clashes, the Washington summit and the "war scare" with Syria, inside Lebanon the main political drama concerned the concluding rounds of parliamentary elections. These, as expected, produced a Syria-friendly legislature. Initial euphoria in some quarters about the early losses suffered
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Brief Analysis
Parliamentary Elections in Lebanon:
An Early Assessment
BEIRUT—While headline news was being made in Iraq and the Erez checkpoint, a less-noticed political drama has been unfolding in another corner of the Middle East, Lebanon. Here, Lebanese are in the midst of a five-week election five electoral districts each voting on subsequent Sundays that could have an important
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Brief Analysis
Understanding Syria:
Decisionmaking in the Assad Regime
Hafez al-Assad's decision to join the peace process in 1991 was perhaps one of the most difficult decisions of his entire political career. Many analysts do not see this as a strategic decision, however it does reflect a major change in Assad's policy toward Israel. The mere fact that Assad
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